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India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa are in fierce competition to reach the final of the World Test Championship.

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India, Australia, Sri Lanka and South Africa are in fierce competition to reach the final of the World Test Championship.

With 10 series (26 Tests) remaining in the current World Test Championship cycle, the competition for the top two positions is intensifying. Here’s a look at how teams are placed and their chances of advancing to the qualifiers.

sri lanka
Percentage points: 55.56, Series remaining: SA (2 away Tests), Aus (2 home)

With a total of 24 points from the last two Tests, Sri Lanka have made a strong push to finish in the top two this WTC cycle. The remaining four Tests will be played against two opponents who are also finals contenders. If they win each match and score 48 more points (keep in mind that excessive percentage deductions are always a threat), they will finish with 69.23% and be guaranteed a place in the finals regardless of other results. One loss and three wins would give you 61.54 points, with the possibility of qualifying depending on other results still remaining.

India
Percentage points: 74.24, series remaining: NZ (3 home), Aus (5 away)

The stunning win in Kanpur further strengthened India’s position at the top of the table. A win in each of the remaining eight tests would get you to 85.09%, but a more realistic goal would be to score enough points to qualify for the WTC finals regardless of other results. To do so, you need at least 4 wins and 2 draws (56 points), which gives you 67.54 points. South Africa can get up to 69.44 points if they win each of the remaining six Tests, while Australia can reach 64.04 points with four wins and two draws (one loss to India, two draws and the remaining four Tests). (assuming you win).

If India scores less than 56 points, they are likely to miss out on the top two. For example, with 4 wins and 1 draw (52 points), Australia and South Africa are likely to overtake them.

Sri Lanka could also finish above 67%, but a Sri Lankan win would cost both Australia and South Africa points. This would then work in India’s favor as both Australia and South Africa could end up below India.

Bangladesh
Percentage Points: 34.38, Series Remaining: WI (2 away), SA (2 home)

The two defeats in India have dealt a serious blow to Bangladesh. It fell from 45.83% to 34.38%. A win in each of the remaining four Tests would only improve them to 56.25. Even that probably won’t be enough to make it into the top two.

New Zealand
Points: 37.50, Remaining series: Ind (3 away), N (3 home)

New Zealand could theoretically complete with a percentage as high as 64.29% if they win all six Tests, but recent statistics suggest they cannot come close to this figure. That’s because three of the Tests were played in India, the toughest assignment in Test cricket following a 2-0 thrashing in Sri Lanka. If you win 4 out of 6 tests and lose 2, you are only 50% complete.

australia
Percentage points: 62.50, Series remaining: Ind (5 home), SL (2 away)

Australia, currently ranked second with 62.5%, can finish with up to 76.32 points if they win each of the remaining seven Tests. The two teams they face for the remainder of the series, India and Sri Lanka, are also strong contenders in the final, so a win against them would doubly help Australia’s cause. Five wins would raise the ratio to 65.79, but India and South Africa could still surpass it. However, the picture will be clearer by the time the visitors begin the series against India, as they will have completed three home Tests against New Zealand.

south africa
Points: 38.89, remaining series: SL (2 home), Se-ri Pak (2 home), Ban (2 home)

If South Africa wins each of the remaining six Tests, they will finish with 69.44%. This will certainly be enough to qualify as only one, either India or Australia, can pass this figure. Five wins and one draw would still put them in contention at 63.89, while five wins and one loss would lower the ratio slightly to 61.11, still giving them a chance if other results go their way.

uk
Points: 42.19, remaining series: Se-ri Pak (3 away games), NZ (3 away games)

England’s unexpected defeat in the final Test against Sri Lanka means they can no longer cross the 60% mark this cycle. The maximum that can be achieved by winning the remaining six Tests is 57.95. To qualify for that score, you’ll need a few other results that could work in your favor.

Pakistan
Percentage Points: 19.05, Series Remaining: Eng (3 home), SA (2 away), WI (2 home)

Pakistan’s rough series against Bangladesh – not only did they lose 2-0, but their slow over rate also cost them six points. – This means their percentage has dropped from 36.66% at the start of the series to 19.05. From here, the maximum they can achieve if they win each of the remaining seven Tests is 59.52. Their recent achievements do not suggest that Pakistan will come close to achieving this.

west indies
Percentage: 18.52, Remaining Series: Ban (2 home), Se-Ri Pak (2 away)

West Indies have already played four series and have won just 20 points out of 108 runs. Even a win in the last four Tests would only put them at 43.59%.

S Rajesh is the Statistics Editor at ESPNcricinfo. @rajeshstats

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