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It is a popular belief that the European Union makes the most progress in times of crisis. If this is true, 2025 will undoubtedly be a great year for ‘Europe’. Unfortunately, these beliefs are largely embedded within the Brussels bubble and are based more on wishful thinking than political reality. Most of the “progress” the EU achieves during the “crisis” either pushes the problem further away or offers solutions that inevitably create future problems.
It is almost certain that next year will bring another “crisis”, or at least a major challenge, for the EU. By the end of 2024, the governments of France and Germany, the so-called “engines of European integration,” will lose their parliamentary majorities and function as lame-duck governments.
Germany will hold important elections in February 2025, with opinion polls showing the Christian Democrats (CDU)-CSU as clear winners, but on the strength of the far-right AfD, one of the few far-right parties that has yet to participate in the elections. Because of this, forming a coalition will be difficult. face to face sanitary border In Europe. By contrast, French President Emmanuel Macron remains stubbornly committed to his coalition government, which does not have a majority in parliament.
As is often the case when progress is lacking on the domestic front, Macron is turning his attention to foreign policy, particularly European policy. Bypassing Germany, especially with regard to the war in Ukraine, he sought increasing support from Central and Eastern Europe, especially Poland, with the enthusiastic support of the new EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Estonia’s anti-Russian hawk Kaja Kallas. there is. . But despite enthusiasm for a continued hard stance against Russia and strong support for Ukraine from some regional leaders, the strongest opposition also comes from the region (particularly Hungary and Slovakia).
Of course, the EU’s real challenge comes from Washington DC, where Donald Trump takes office on January 20th. Trump has no vision of an alternative world order, but he has staked much of his political reputation on “bringing peace” to Ukraine and stopping the United States from paying billions of dollars to Ukraine. In Europe, Trump is a Cold War transatlantic believer and an anti-Joe Biden who is out of step with many of his own party and voters. For Trump, Europe is a competitor first and an ally second. Likewise, NATO is more of a protection racket than a collective security alliance.
