During World War II, the butler of the British ambassador to Türkiye was spying on Allied forces. As a butler, he had access to the ambassador’s files and was able to find and copy top secret information, including the Allies’ D-Day plans. Fortunately, the Germans thought he could not be trusted and ignored the information.
You may not realize it now, but sometimes one event can have far-reaching effects and trigger a chain of events that no one could have predicted.
The atrocities committed at the hands of Iran’s proxy Hamas on October 7, 2023 proved to be just such a moment, with ramifications extending beyond the massacre and torture of women and children in Israel.
As Israel continues to dismantle Hamas, the effectiveness of Hezbollah, another proxy for Iran, has been greatly reduced and is closing the borders of Syria and Lebanon.
As Hezbollah destabilizes, an opportunity presents itself in Syria. Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, seized the long-awaited moment to attack Assad (along with other rebel groups), ensuring the fall of the Assad regime within 10 days.
The rebels are now in full control of Syria, and Assad’s ‘humanitarian’ asylum in Russia has significantly reduced the complexity of Iran’s regional proxies.
Like dominoes hitting each other – Hamas, Hezbollah, and finally Syria – Iran’s regional ambitions for influence have been seriously undermined.
Iran is at a crossroads. It can accept ‘realpolitik’ through substantive and realistic negotiations with the West, or it can ‘roll the dice’ to become a nuclear state.
UN nuclear inspector Rafael Grossi recently reiterated his concerns. Iran is increasing its stockpile of refined uranium, bringing it dangerously close to the concentration needed for a nuclear weapon.
Around the same time, Iran’s former nuclear negotiator, Mohammad Javad Zarif, called for resuming discussions on Iran’s nuclear program. On the surface, Iran’s new “open” president, Massoud Fezeshkian, is seeking “constructive cooperation with the West.”
With a “resistance axis” no longer viable, Iran’s prospects are at best severely undermined. Will we choose the more plausible path of ‘realpolitik’, or will we tempt fate in the face of an emboldened Netanyahu and Trump?
Iran pursued a less extreme foreign policy and showed a warmer attitude toward the West during President Ali Rafsanjani’s term. It seems likely that a similar policy could bear fruit again under Pezeshkian.
There are two questions before us. Will Iran Choose Wisely? And if Iran so chooses, will Trump give ‘realpolitik’ a chance to ‘bear fruit’?
Trump’s nominee for Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), has been quite vocal about his assessment of the dangers of Iran. Sensing Iran’s weakness, President-elect Trump is likely to accept (through the influence of his advisors) anything short of a complete rollback of the nuclear program.
Since most of what drives Iran’s leadership (religious or not) is respect from the West and acceptance from the Arab League, it is expected that more level-headed and rational leaders in the administration will prevail. Iran’s leaders therefore do not want to give up the nuclear program for which the country has put so much effort into gaining respect and power.
However, the possibility (and hope) remains that Iran will adopt a more plausible approach in its dialogue with the West. Perhaps the nuclear program will remain for domestic purposes only. This will allow Iran to save face.
Today, Middle East experts agree that China, not Iran, poses the greatest threat to the United States. Iranian In response to the 2009 presidential election, majorities mobilized for democracy. Although history is not a sufficient basis for defending national interests, let us not forget that, according to declassified CIA documents, it was the US and UK that had previously denied Iranian democracy through a CIA/MI6-led coup.
Without Assad, Iran has little reason to pursue an alternative (and potentially counterproductive) political “nuclear” agenda.
Given Israel’s superior nuclear and conventional military capabilities and the anticipated arrival of President-elect Trump, “realpolitik” is Iran’s best option. That is, one of realistic expectations and transparency about nuclear design.
If Israel senses that Iran is pursuing a nuclear agenda, it will not hesitate to eliminate Iran’s nuclear facilities (with or without American connivance). (This plan has already been rehearsed for immediate implementation.)
Moreover, Iran is well aware of Israel’s concerns and capabilities if it abandons “realpolitik” (more pragmatic) solutions to its political dilemma.
With the right diplomatic overtures from the Trump administration, Iran can enter the orbit of constructive bilateral relations with the West.
Several conditions are key if Iran and the United States are to achieve a sustainable nuclear deal and ensure that each can take credit for its success.
The Trump administration should resume talks with Iran through direct negotiations with Fezeshkian to implement a ‘non-proliferation treaty’ to include verification of Iran’s nuclear program. Iran should receive sanctions relief (as compensation). As a result of these achievements, Persian Gulf states should establish a nuclear-weapon-free zone in the region as a first step toward collective security.
The United States should conclude its efforts through further negotiations to promote a comprehensive agreement among regional countries to establish (through treaties) a unified mechanism for mutual security and cooperative cooperation.
The Trump administration faces an opportunity with great promise, but it also comes with great risk. Now is not the time to show off your personality. Instead, we should pursue a foreign policy that serves America’s “long-term” interests, that is, America’s strategic leadership, expressed through wise (rather than personal or expedient) use of economic and political hegemony, which includes: There must always remain a military solution. It’s optional, but not necessarily the default option.
F. Andrew Wolf Jr. is the director of the Fulcrum Institute, an organization comprised of current and former scholars in the humanities, arts, and sciences.
