Radical right parties have made significant gains at the ballot box in 2024. Vicente Valentim This success, they argue, is possible because their views have been normalized.
Last year was a year full of elections. Almost half of the world’s population went to the polls. The radical right made significant gains in this election.
In the United States, Donald Trump was elected as yet another president after a campaign filled with racist, anti-democratic, and violent remarks. The European Parliament elections strengthened the radical right as a key force in Europe. And in Austria, the Freedom Party led by Herbert Kickl came first in the legislative elections.“People’s Prime Minister” (People’s Chancellor), a term that reflects Hitler’s rhetoric.
It’s tempting to read these developments as evidence that voters are increasingly “shifting to the radical right.” However, there is one problem with this type of analysis. Voters’ political views on issues such as immigration, trust in political institutions, or overall political interest change slowly. So how can we explain the rapid rise of radical right parties like Spain’s Vox, which increased its vote share from 0.2% in 2016 to 15% in just three years?
spiral of silence
This is the conundrum I tried to address in my latest book. Normalization of the radical right: A normative theory of political supply and demand.. I believe the growth of the radical right in Western democracies is changing the minds of voters. matching Radical right. Instead, it was caused by individuals who already held radical right-wing views but did not demonstrate those views for fear of social repercussions, including being criticized, losing social connections, or being gossiped about.
In fact, many individuals who personally support radical right parties are not willing to acknowledge those views when interacting with others, for example when voting. This creates a spiral of silence where each voter underestimates how widespread their views are and consequently refuses to voice their opinions.
The fact that radical right voters often keep their views to themselves has important implications for politicians. Politicians may be led to believe that they will not be successful if they run for office on a radical right platform. As a result, they may prefer to join political parties with different ideologies or simply avoid running for office.
With fewer politicians to choose from, radical right parties end up with inexperienced leaders who cannot mobilize voters with radical right views to vote for them. This is one of the reasons why the radical right has not succeeded before. This is not because individuals do not hold these views, but because politicians who express them are deemed unlikely to win elections. So there was no reason to vote for them. Because that means throwing away your vote.
Normalization and election success
However, social shocks, such as terrorist attacks or the refugee crisis of 2015-2016, may temporarily embolden some voters to publicly express radical right views. Given that radical right views are likely to be more widespread than expected, skilled politicians will often try to mobilize these voters to achieve electoral breakthroughs.
If such a breakthrough were achieved, it would further highlight the fact that radical right views are more popular than previously thought. As these politicians gain ground and enter political institutions such as parliament and government, their presence makes their views appear more legitimate.
The result is that what was previously considered unacceptable has become normalized, and radical right voters who were previously embarrassed to express their views are now emboldened to do so. They have become more willing to express these beliefs through conversation, attend rallies, and even engage in acts of far-right violence. This is one of the reasons why this type of behavior reaches its peak after elections, when the radical right performs particularly well.
Viewing the rise of the radical right as a process of normalization explains why these parties often seem to appear “out of the blue.” This process can happen very quickly because their growth does not require voters to change their views (a slower process) but simply reflects existing views becoming more acceptable.
At the same time, this suggests that radical right parties are not simply ‘protest parties’ whose support declines as quickly as it rises. Fighting this phenomenon requires more than hoping that the success of these parties will disappear. It takes intentional effort to challenge exclusionary views that bring voters closer to radical right ideologies. This may be a slow and difficult process, but it is essential to safeguard democratic principles of inclusion and tolerance in the long term.
For more information, see the author’s book. Normalization of the radical right: A normative theory of political supply and demand. (Oxford University Press, 2024).
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
