How relations between the two countries hit rock bottom

India and Canada have expelled senior diplomats amid heightened tensions over the assassination of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil, sending historically friendly relations to a low. Past disagreements have strained their relationship, but neither has ever reached this level of public confrontation.

In 1974, India shocked the world by detonating a nuclear device, incurring the ire of Canada when it accused India of extracting plutonium, a gift meant only for peaceful use.

Relations between the two countries have cooled considerably. Canada has suspended support for India’s nuclear energy program.

But it did not expel any senior diplomats, as it did on Monday, as last year’s assassination intensified the debate. Hardip Singh NizarA Sikh leader living in Canada has been labeled a terrorist by India.

The expulsion follows Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s claim that Canadian police are investigating allegations of direct involvement of Indian agents and the Indian government in the June 2023 killings.

Canadian police also accused Indian agents of targeting pro-Khalistan supporters and engaging in “acts of murder, extortion and violence.” Advocate a separate Sikh homeland In India. Deli dismissed the claims as “absurd.”

About 770,000 Sikhs live in Canada, the largest Sikh diaspora outside the Indian state of Punjab. Sikh separatism, which has its roots in India’s bloody insurgency in the 1980s and early ’90s, continues to strain relations between the two countries. Canada has come under sharp criticism from Delhi for not opposing the pro-Khalistan movement within its borders. India says Canada is aware of local Khalistani groups and has been monitoring them for several years.

“This relationship downward trajectory “It’s been that way for a few years, but now we’re hitting rock bottom,” Michael Kugelman of the Wilson Center, a US think tank, told the BBC.

“They are making very serious and detailed allegations publicly, withdrawing ambassadors and senior diplomats, and issuing diplomatic statements with stinging language. This is uncharted territory even in this troubled relationship.”

Other analysts agree that this moment signals a historic change.

“This signals a significant decline in Canada-India relations under the Trudeau government,” added Ryan Touhey, author of Conflicting Visions, Canada and India in the Cold War World.

Mr. Toohey, a history professor at St. Jerome’s University in Waterloo, notes that a major success of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s government was to promote a “long-term rapprochement” between Canada and India that moved beyond grievances related to Khalistan and nuclear proliferation.

“Instead, the focus has been on the importance of trade and education ties and people-to-people connections, given that there is a sizeable Indian diaspora in Canada. It is also notable that the Khalistan issue seemed to have disappeared since the beginning of the new millennium. Now, it has suddenly erupted again. .”

Despite this, Harper has not faced allegations from Canadian security agencies about a potential link between Indian government agents and the killing of Canadian citizens.

On Monday, Canadian police said they had approached at least a dozen people over the past few months, particularly members of the pro-Khalistan movement. Because they believed they were facing a credible and imminent threat.

They claimed that their subsequent investigation uncovered a significant amount of information about the breadth and depth of criminal activity organized by Indian agents and the resulting threats to Canadians.

“We cannot accept this fundamental infringement on the sovereignty of any country, especially a democracy that upholds the rule of law,” Trudeau said.

Canada’s claims come at a time when Trudeau appears to be waging an anti-incumbency fight at home almost a year before the election. New survey: Ipsos Just 28% of respondents overall thought Trudeau deserved to win re-election, and only 26% said they would vote for the Liberals. bruised indian foreign ministry note On Monday, Canada’s claims stemmed from “the Trudeau government’s political agenda centered around vote bank politics.”

Trudeau in 2016 told reporters There are more Sikhs in his cabinet (4) than India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sikhs have significant influence in Canadian politics, holding 15 seats in the House of Commons (more than 4%), while representing only about 2% of the population. Many of these seats are in key battleground states during general elections. In 2020, Trudeau expressed concern about protests by farmers in India. draw sharp criticism To Delhi.

“I think, broadly speaking, this crisis will give the impression that the Prime Minister is moving from one failure to another. More specifically, within the Indo-Canadian community there is greater hurt than ever before,” says Touhey.

He explains that Canada’s Indian diaspora, once primarily Punjabi and Sikh, has become more diverse and now includes significant numbers of Hindus and immigrants from southern India and the western state of Gujarat.

“They are proud of India’s economic transformation since the 1990s and will not sympathize with Sikh separatism. Historically, the Liberal Party has had significant political success with the Sikh vote, especially in British Columbia.”

But Mr Touhey does not think India’s crisis has anything to do with vote bank politics.

Instead, he believes this is about the Canadian government “repeatedly missing signals from Delhi regarding India’s concerns about pro-Khalistani forces in Canada.”

“My strong feeling is that after decades of pleading with the Canadian government to accommodate Indian concerns about pro-Khalistani forces in Canada, they feel they are back to square one, except this time there is a much different government in Delhi. .There is a willingness to act strongly, rightly or wrongly, to deter perceived domestic threats,” says Mr. Touhey.

Mr. Kugelman has similar thoughts.

“There are many factors that explain the rapid deterioration in relations between the two countries, including a fundamental disconnect: What India views or projects as a dangerous threat, Canada views as mere activism and dissent protected by freedom of speech; and “Neither side is willing to make concessions,” he said.

All may not be lost. The two countries have a long relationship. Canada is home to one of the largest Indian communities, with 1.3 million residents, about 4% of the population. India is ranked as Canada’s priority market and 10th largest trading partner in 2022. India has also been Canada’s top source of international students since 2018.

“On the one hand, the size of the diaspora, the diversity of the diaspora, the increase in trade between the two countries and the increase in student exchanges make the relationship much broader than ever before. The Trudeau Government’s Problematic Problems ” says Mr. Touhey.

“So I think those people-to-people connections would be fine. At a high bilateral level, I don’t think there’s much that can be done about the current Canadian government as we’re almost entering the final year of elections. Until the fall of 2025 at the latest.”

But for now, the situation looks pretty bad, experts say.

“Delhi is now regularly making the same claims against Canada that it has been making against Pakistan. It accuses Ottawa of protecting and sponsoring anti-India terrorists. But in recent years, these claims against Canada have become stronger than those against Pakistan. And that’s saying something,” says Mr. Kugelman.

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