(NEWS NATION) — America’s support for Israel’s war in Gaza could have a major impact on voters’ decisions this November.
Some voters were frustrated with President Biden’s support for Israel and revolted against his policies when he ran as a Democratic candidate.
But with Harris elected, some political experts say there is an opportunity to sway voters in a crucial and swing state that has historically been won by extremely narrow margins.
“In states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, where the outcome was close in both 2016 and 2020, small changes in the electorate can have a huge impact,” Chris Borick, a professor of political science at Muilenburg College and director of the college’s Public Opinion Research Center, told NewsNation.
“In the case of the Gaza Strip and Israel, there is a segment of the population in every country that sees this issue as very prominent.”
Gaza Strip issue could affect voter turnout
Voters who criticize the administration’s handling of the Gaza conflict could give Harris the wide support she needs in key states.
Of course, if they show up.
“Like most recent presidential elections, the outcome is expected to be a close race, with one candidate’s success depending in large part on turnout,” said Michael Traugott, a political science professor at the University of Michigan.
For voters who are deeply concerned about what is happening in Gaza and criticize the current administration’s response, “the concern is not whether they will vote for Donald Trump, but whether they will stay home, and that could affect the overall turnout,” he said.
In Michigan, the Gaza issue is a “huge concern” for the state’s large Arab-American and Muslim populations, and will be important in terms of voter turnout and mobilization during the election, he said.
He said much of the opposition reflected Biden’s positions and a blanket rejection of his nomination, adding that while Harris would not take a drastically different position as a member of a Biden administration, she would likely be more nuanced in her remarks.
Exercises to build a swing state
Opponents of the war are protesting across the country, and there are movements urging voters to vote in protest.
According to Politico, more than 650,000 Democrats voted against Biden when he ran, choosing options like “no commitment,” and in other states protesting with fill-in boxes, blank ballots, and voting for other candidates.
At the Democratic National Convention next week, 30 delegates who have yet to take a position are expected to show up and try to pressure Harris’s delegates into including a ceasefire in the convention platform.
The movement garnered more than 101,000 votes in Michigan’s Democratic presidential primary and 47,800 votes in Wisconsin.
In 2020, Biden won by a similar margin, winning 154,000 more votes in Michigan, 20,600 more votes in Wisconsin, and about 80,000 more votes in Pennsylvania than former President Trump.
Harris seemed to recognize that fine line, according to the Detroit Free Press, sending a campaign staffer to Michigan this week to meet with Arab-American and Muslim leaders who continue to insist that the U.S. government stop its Israeli-Hamas offensive in Gaza.
She also began to take a more nuanced stance on Gaza.
“I’ve made it clear: Now is the time to make a ceasefire and finalize the hostage negotiations,” Harris told pro-Palestinian protesters who disrupted her campaign rally in Arizona this week.
After meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last month, Harris issued a televised statement maintaining her “unwavering commitment” to Israel and its right to “defend itself,” but also addressed the massive humanitarian crisis.
“The images of dead children and desperate, starving people fleeing for safety – sometimes for a second, third or fourth time – we cannot take our eyes off these tragedies. We cannot allow ourselves to be numb to the suffering, and I will not remain silent.”
Balance between Palestinian supporters and Jewish voters
Harris is part of the current administration, but not Biden, and there needs to be a “reset” on the issue, Borrick said.
“She has an opportunity on this issue that Joe Biden, as the Democratic candidate, doesn’t have, because he is seen as the face of American policy in response to what happened in October and the subsequent intervention in Gaza.”
But she will have to perform a delicate “dance” to maintain a larger Democratic coalition that also includes Jewish voters, he said, who are also concerned about Harris’s commitment to Israel.
He added that this trend could certainly play out in Pennsylvania, where there is a significant Jewish population, where her stance on Israel could influence their likelihood to vote.
Borick said the Gaza issue has divided Pennsylvania’s Democratic coalition.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a popular figure in his state, has come under fire from progressives for his comments on some pro-Palestinian protests and his support of a bill that would penalize colleges that boycott Israel or impose financial penalties on the country, The Patriot-News reported.
But some voters were angry because they believed Shapiro was excluded from Harris’s vice presidential race because of his Jewish beliefs. Borick said it’s unlikely those voters would turn away from Harris based on that belief alone.
“In a state as close as Pennsylvania, you can’t have that much of a margin of error, so I think it’s going to be difficult for Harris to address this issue among voters who really care about it,” Borick said.
