TAMPA, Fla. — On their opening drive Sunday night, the Washington Commanders marched down the field and stopped, facing fourth-and-2 at the Tampa Bay 20-yard line. They tried it and threw incomplete and turned the ball over on downs, but it set the tone for the rest of the night.
In most of the NFL, a fourth down is a punting down, i.e. a concession for a fumble, but not for the Commanders. They went 20-for-23 on fourth downs in the regular season. Not only did they lead the NFL in conversion percentage at 87%, but they also had the highest conversion rate ever of any NFL team with 10 or more fourth down attempts in a season. season.
And on Sunday night, they lived and died on fourth down with two conversions leading to touchdowns, led by unwavering rookie quarterback Jayden Daniels.
“We’re going to be bold, but we’re not going to be reckless,” coach Dan Quinn said, adding the team is confident they will try and succeed as often as possible. “I think that’s been us all season. Even if we get stopped early, we just have to stay the course. Hey, keep your chin up and keep swinging. I know this is going to be an important game. We’re going to go all the way.”
Washington’s second drive was a really tough one. It was a 17-play, 92-yard slog with more than nine minutes left in the game. The Commanders faced fourth-and-1 from the Bucs’ 23, and of course they went for it, with running back Austin Ekeler converting on a 2-yard run. On third-and-goal, Daniels threw a touchdown to receiver Dyami Brown for a 7-3 lead.
Twice, the Commanders made field goals for a 13-10 lead, and then a fourth-down gamble cost them in the fourth quarter when they were down 17-13. Washington scored on fourth down in the third. This causes Daniels to throw incomplete.
The Bucs had the ball and the lead, but committed their only turnover of the game, missing a handoff on a jet sweep to set up the Commanders at the Tampa Bay 13-yard line. Once again, the defense was stopped on third down, and Quinn didn’t hesitate to go for it on fourth-and-2 from the 5-yard line. This time, Daniels found receiver Terry McLaurin for a touchdown and the lead.
“Fourth downs are something DQ has shown offensively all season,” McLaurin said. “For a good portion of the season, we’ve been 100 percent in transition. We know that if it’s fourth down and it’s manageable, a DQ will give us a chance to execute. When we needed to make a play the most, we did that. We’ll be confident going forward. Please.”
Quinn and Bucs coach Todd Bowles are both defensive coaches, which can sometimes make them conservative in their offensive aggressiveness. Tampa Bay has had a higher fourth down percentage than its opponents this year, but the Bucs’ opponents have attempted fourth downs more than twice as often, converting a league-high 19 times.
Tampa Bay had a chance to play on Sunday. On fourth-and-7 on their opening drive, the Bucs got a 42-yard field goal, but an offside penalty gave them a chance to make it on fourth-and-2. They kept the score on the board and had another tough decision in the fourth quarter. They missed twice on second-and-1 from the Washington 12 and then had a fourth-and-3 from the 14 with 4:45 left. Bowles took the safe option and opted for a field goal to tie the game with 4:41 remaining.
This put the ball in Daniels’ hands and the Bucs never got it back. Washington ran down the clock and won on a saved field goal as time expired. That kick was set up by a 3rd-and-2 conversion when Daniels scrambled for a first down, which allowed the Commanders to run the clock down to the final play.
Daniels said the No. 4 mindset is the same all year long. If coaches have the confidence to give them a chance, they should have the same optimism about being able to convert from that opportunity.
“Obviously they’re confident we’re going to knock them down first, so I’m confident those guys are going to go out there and block, make plays and move the chains,” he said.
The rookie QB has performed phenomenally throughout the season, but has especially fallen to fourth place. It was the first time he threw an incompletion in the fourth Sunday. In the regular season, he went 8-for-8 on four plays and had seven first downs. Running the ball, he finished 15-for-17 on fourth downs as he had nine carries for 85 yards and eight conversions, a much better percentage than the team’s 87% overall.
Washington’s three fourth-down conversions on Sunday matched the most in NFL history in a playoff win. The 2022 Eagles, 2018 Chiefs and 2011 Saints did the same, but all won by 17 points or more. It was nothing like the Commanders, who needed every bit of conversion to get a three-point, last-second win over the Bucs.
Washington will now face top seed Detroit. Detroit Lions coach Dan Campbell is also known for his confidence in the top four. Detroit has 10 more fourth-place finishes than Washington this year and went 15-2 with 22-for-33 shots. But even if the Lions tried harder, their commanders were more successful. Quinn said his team is uniquely qualified to gain confidence on fourth downs throughout the season.
“It’s part of our game,” he said. “It has a lot to do with 5 (Daniel). Sometimes he can use his legs to make plays that aren’t huddle calls. Earlier today, we got stopped on the first play, but I’m not going to stop us there.”
He almost never is.
Greg Auman is an NFL reporter for FOX Sports. He previously spent 10 years covering: pirate for Tampa Bay Times and Athletic. You can follow him on Twitter. @gregauman.
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