Big donors are embroiled in a fight for control of the House of Representatives, with Democrats blaming Republicans in the final stretch.
This is a surprising twist. Republican super PACs have been dominant in recent cycles and have played a crucial role in helping candidates who struggle to raise money as much as their Democratic opponents. But now that advantage has been lost in the House of Commons.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the largest Republican group dedicated to winning the House, reported Tuesday its highest ever quarterly total, $81.4 million, from July to September. Those are particularly impressive numbers considering the Republican Party lost its top fundraiser about a year ago when Kevin McCarthy stepped down as chairman.
However, the CLF did not come close to defeating the Democratic Party. The House Majority PAC said it raised about $99 million in the third quarter and $69 million in September alone.
Both super PACs raised about $210 million this cycle. This is a warning sign for Republicans who have relied on their biggest donors to remain competitive on the battlefield.
“HMP couldn’t be prouder of beating the Republican candidate in the third quarter and erasing the GOP Super PAC advantage as the Democratic Party’s candidate-funding gap continues to grow,” said HMP President Mike Smith. “On Election Day, we believe we will be able to take back the House of Representatives in November with record funding and the strategic advantage of preserving critical TV and digital time at optimal speeds.”
Republicans have long believed there’s no need to compare dollars-for-dollars with Democrats on TV. After replacing McCarthy, Chairman Mike Johnson worked to develop relationships with donors and brought in Dan Conston, a McCarthy operative, to lead CLF.
“We continue to raise the resources we need and deploy them strategically to have a real impact in the pivotal race that will shape our majority,” Conston said in a statement.
But there are limits to what outside groups can do. Candidates can buy TV airtime for much less than super PACs, making it much less efficient for outside groups to buy ads than campaigns. Republicans typically rely more on outside groups because their candidates don’t have enough money to pay for their own ads.
Since 2018, Democratic candidates have raised significantly more money than their opponents. So far this year, more than a dozen Democratic challengers have already announced that they raised more than $2 million last quarter.
For example, Democratic Rep. Janelle Bynum, who is challenging Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), reported raising $3.4 million in the third quarter. Rep. Laura Gillen, a Democrat challenging Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.), has raised $2.4 million, and Derek Tran, a Democrat challenging Rep. Michelle Steel (R-Calif.), has raised more than $2 million.
As Republican House candidates continue to trail their Democratic counterparts, CLF has played a key role in bridging the gap.
In the 2020 cycle, both CLF and HMP were relatively close in fundraising. CLF raised $165 million to HMP’s $160 million. But in 2022, Republican support soared, and CLF consistently maintained its cash advantage, raising $260 million to Democrats’ $182 million during that cycle.
And that cash will have a major impact on running your final campaign. CLF’s cash advantage in 2022 meant it could spend $141 million on independent spending in House races from Oct. 1 to Election Day, compared to HMP’s $121 million, according to FEC data. CLF outspent HMP in 32 of the 47 races in which they both spent.
But this year, that dynamic may be reversed. HMP, flush with cash, is regularly canceling new bookings. It has booked $52 million more than CLF in future TV and radio ad bookings between now and Election Day, according to data from AdImpact, which tracks political spending. Of course, both sides could change the split before November and buy additional ads.
