In fact, unless Trump gets elected and dies or is forced to resign while in office, it doesn’t really matter who he chooses.
A vice presidential candidate can strengthen a ticket by helping run a state or region, injecting energy or passion into the ticket, and becoming an important governing partner if elected.
But unlike in 2016, when Trump first ran, almost all American voters have very strong feelings about him. He is a hero to his supporters, but most of his detractors despise him. These feelings are so strong that no running mate is likely to tip the scale in either direction.
Trump’s choice of Indiana Gov. Mike Pence eight years ago no doubt helped the thrice-married New York City swashbuckler win support from evangelical Christians. But I suspect that, given the hostility these people felt toward Trump’s 2016 rival Hillary Clinton, they would have voted for Trump anyway, even if they feared he would not advance their absolutist anti-abortion views. And since Trump’s Supreme Court nominees overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022, you don’t have to worry anymore.
There have been top-notch vice presidential picks from both the Republican and Democratic parties over the past half-century, but none have delivered on the status quo that a presidential candidate would not have done anyway. The last time that happened was when Texas Democrat Lyndon B. Johnson won crucial Electoral College votes in the Lone Star State in 1960, helping John F. Kennedy unseat Richard Nixon.
Nearly 30 years later, another Texas Democratic senator, Lloyd Bentsen, was considered a much more qualified vice presidential candidate than Republican Dan Quayle. It didn’t matter. In the 1988 race between George HW Bush and Michael Dukakis, Bush easily won Texas and the White House.
Some of the names most mentioned as potential Trump running mates today include Sens. JD Vance of Ohio, Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and Tom Cotton of Arkansas. New York State Assemblywoman Elise Stefanik; and North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum – a mix of Trump rivals and critics turned sycophants.
But Trump carried every state except New York in both 2016 and 2020, so it’s debatable whether these candidates will help expand Trump’s regional appeal. It is a constitutional impediment that two members of a ticket are from the same state. Now that Trump is officially a Florida resident, Rubio will be ruled out. But if Trump asks him to move, Rubio’s response will be “How far?”
I remember the 2016 Christmas party held in Vail, Colorado. There, wealthy business leaders told me they expect Trump to be the political face of the new administration and Pence to take charge of the actual governing. We all saw how that turned out.
Some Republicans, especially business executives, are now concerned about inflation and immigration and want Trump to choose someone they can feel comfortable with. The only reason the charismatic Burgum, whose net worth is estimated by Forbes at $100 million, is on the list is because of his deep pockets.
Then there’s the question of whether a younger running mate would strengthen the ticket, given Trump’s age and health. If elected, Trump, who just turned 78, would be older than Joe Biden when he takes office in 2021. But since Biden will be 82 years old on Inauguration Day in 2025, voters seem to give Trump that credit.
In recent decades, vice presidential picks have supplemented candidates by filling in weak spots on their resumes. From George HW Bush to Ronald Reagan, George W. Bush and Dick Cheney, and Biden under Barack Obama, all led to a Washington that lacked top personnel. and brought foreign policy experience to their ticket.
In 1992, then-Tennessee Senator Al Gore worked with Arkansas Governor Bill Clinton to present an attractive package. It was a generational change through two young, exceptionally bright, moderate Southerners.
All of these running mates were also close collaborators in national affairs. That modern role was established in the 1970s by President Jimmy Carter, who formed a close working partnership with Walter Mondale, giving him full access to the president and all information. , this approach was called the “Mondale model”.
Richard Moe, who served as Mondale’s chief of staff from 1977 to 1981, said this was anathema to Trump. “It’s worked in almost every administration except Trump,” Moe says. “He doesn’t want a vice president with independent expertise. He just wants total commitment to him.”
Does anyone think that JD Vance will be a partner on foreign policy or that Tim Scott will cooperate on domestic issues? During the Trump administration, Pence played a very effective role in promoting the anti-abortion agenda, and several cabinet members played a large role in the policy, at least initially. However, Trump now knows how to form a government according to his will, so he believes there is no need to rely on such people.
It is worth remembering how this exercise was conducted eight years ago. Trump first asked Pence to be his running mate. The next day, he told New Jersey Governor Chris Christie he might tap him. According to a report by Politico, Trump flirted with choosing former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who told his adviser that dirt on Gingrich was dug up during the vetting process and “makes me look tame.”
In 1976, President Gerald Ford chose then-Kansas Senator Bob Dole as his running mate, but lost. Later, Rod Slifer, the former Republican mayor of Vail and a good friend of mine, suggested that Ford would have won if he had chosen someone like Bill Ruckelshaus, the former attorney general and head of the Environmental Protection Agency. That was nonsense, Ford told him. People don’t vote for vice presidents.
Fast forward to 1991, when Ford seemed to have changed his views. He told Sleeper that he called then-President George H. W. Bush and urged him to replace Quayle as his running mate for the 1992 campaign. It didn’t happen.
Maybe some people will end up voting based on the president’s running mate. But I’m not sure if that will make a difference in 2024.
Washington Columnist Albert R. Hunt He has covered American politics and presidential campaigns since 1972, and previously wall street journal, bloomberg news and international new york times. Listen to his weekly podcast and read more. substack.