The most closely monitored border in the Middle East is between Israel and Lebanon. There have been eight months of retaliatory attacks against each other here, and there is a possibility that Israel may launch a ground attack against its northern neighbor.
Israeli officials have repeatedly threatened to step up attacks since fighting began in early October, saying they must defeat Hezbollah and return 90,000 Israelis who have fled their homes in the north.
But as Israel’s rhetoric intensified, Lebanon’s Hezbollah responded defiantly, warning that such a conflict would not only have a bigger impact than Israel realizes, but would also be felt regionally.
Analysts say Hezbollah is supported regionally by the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” a regional network of Iran-backed militant groups that have been making their presence felt since Israel launched its brutal war in the Gaza Strip.
On October 7, a Hamas-led attack on Israel killed 1,139 people and took about 240 prisoners in the Gaza Strip. Israel immediately launched a genocidal assault on Gaza. Hezbollah began fighting Israel across the border the next day to focus on the Gaza Strip.
Support but how?
“The Axis powers will participate in countering any military action by Israel against Lebanon,” Kassem Kassir, an analyst close to Hezbollah, told Al Jazeera.
But recent media reports that non-Lebanese armed fighters were ready to volunteer and head to Lebanon to fight Hezbollah prompted a brief flurry of questions. How will the “axis” participate? Could this be a random group or individual heading to Lebanon?
A few days earlier, on June 19, Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah said that Hezbollah was rejecting an offer from the militant group’s leaders to send foot soldiers to Lebanon.
“We say to them, ‘Thank you, but we are overwhelmed by the numbers we have,’” Nasrallah said in his speech. Hezbollah already has more than 100,000 fighters, he added.
If Israel shifts its focus from Gaza to Lebanon, its broadening reach could change regional calculations.
“If the United States continues to support this usurping group and attack Lebanon and Hezbollah, it must know that it has made all its interests in the region and Iraq a target and a risk,” said leader Qais al-Khazali. Asa’ib Ahl al Haq, a member of the Iraqi resistance, wrote on social media on Monday.
The term “resistance” in “Axis of Resistance” refers primarily to Shiite, pro-Iranian regional networks opposing the United States and Israel. This means that members can choose any number of regional targets in addition to attacking Israel from their respective locations. They can operate alone or in concert.
harmonious growth
As Hezbollah became firmly established as a regional power and the center of the resistance axis, its influence expanded into Syria, Iraq, and Yemen, coordinating logistics, operations, and training with like-minded groups.
“Many groups, especially those on the transnational axis, will seek help and support from Hezbollah leaders in many countries,” said Renad Mansour, project director for Chatham House’s Iraq Initiative.
These groups could include parts of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF), Yemen’s Houthi rebels, and foreign and local fighters who supported President Bashar al-Assad in his fight against rebels in Syria.
“Perhaps more than any other group in the resistance axis, the Houthis see their relationship with Hezbollah as a foundation,” said Nick Brumfield, an independent Yemen analyst.
“Hezbollah has been the main contractor providing Axis support to the Houthis for many years, and as a member of the Shiite Arab movement, it can be argued that there is a greater affinity between the two forces than between the Houthis and Iran.”
So far, the Houthis have mainly focused on attacking ships in the Red Sea believed to be linked to Israel. However, Mediterranean maritime traffic could also face disruption if cross-border attacks by Israel and Hezbollah intensify.
On Sunday, Houthi rebels and Iraqi Islamist insurgents claimed a joint attack on four ships in the Israeli port of Haifa.
While this attack may have established a new dynamic, the two groups have been cooperating for years. According to Mansour, Houthi representatives have been in Baghdad for a long time, and some PMF groups have had long and historic ties with the Houthis.
These groups will likely want to mobilize if Israel and Hezbollah’s involvement expands.
“One perspective is to intensify joint attacks by IRI and Ansarullah[the Houthis]and perhaps expand smaller partnerships to include more armed actors,” Tamer Badawi, an Iraq analyst who focuses on politics and security, told Al Jazeera.
“These attacks are likely to be gradual attacks against Israel, in keeping with the rhythm of (Israeli) attacks on southern Lebanon and other areas.”
“If the Houthis target ships heading to Israel via the Mediterranean (Italy), making it more difficult and dangerous for ships to travel to Israel via the Red Sea, this will put additional pressure on Israel,” Badawi said.
As in the Red Sea, attacks on ships do not need to hit maritime traffic directly to have an impact on Israel, shipping companies and the global economy.
“As insurance costs increase, import costs also increase, increasing economic pressure (on Israel),” Badawi added.
Is a bigger war coming?
It is not yet known how the escalation of the war between Israel and Hezbollah will play out, even though both have stepped up their rhetoric in recent weeks.
Israeli officials declared last week that they were prepared to wage all-out war with Lebanon.
Nasrallah countered with the prospect that regional allies would back Hezbollah and threaten Cyprus if they collaborated with Israel, despite Cyprus’ rejection.
“This is a strategic messaging response, a conflict that parallels physical combat on the ground,” said Seth Krummrich, a former special forces officer who now works for the Global Guardian risk management company.
The message comes amid a visit to the region by US special envoy Amos Hochstein and ongoing negotiations on a ceasefire in Gaza. Krummrich said both sides are trying to tell national audiences they won’t be bullied, while also trying to show the other side that “they don’t hold all the cards.”
For the past eight months, analysts have been arguing that there is the possibility of a limited ground invasion or, the more likely scenario, an expanded air war with Israel targeting Hezbollah strongholds and Lebanese infrastructure.
Al Jazeera’s Sanad agency found no significant Israeli military buildup on the Lebanese border. But cross-border attacks have intensified in recent weeks, with Israel killing a top Hezbollah commander and Hezbollah responding with its largest barrage of rockets and missiles since October.
Meanwhile, Israel is reported to be continuing to use white phosphorus in southern Lebanon.
“This strengthening could continue with a strategic escalation this week into next week as (Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin) Netanyahu visits the United States,” Krumlich said.
In an expanded air war, the “Axis of Resistance” could continue attacks against Israeli bases and targets abroad.
In a video recently released by Hezbollah, the group showed what appears to be a series of targets inside Israel and points in the Mediterranean they appear to be targeting.
However, land invasions could lead to an influx of foreign fighters into Lebanese territory if the group feels the need to do so.
Nasrallah said the group had more than 100,000 fighters and that the number of people it could already deal with was “overwhelming.” However, the current situation may change if Israeli military boots enter Lebanese territory.
“The resistance groups wanted to use Israel’s attacks on Palestine primarily as a way to present themselves as right-wing advocates and to challenge other Arab countries that have normalized relations but do not necessarily have to do so. Go to war in southern Lebanon or Palestine,” Mansour said. “I think if Israel invades southern Lebanon and Hezbollah, things will change.”
“Until now, the appetite has been more domestic… but during an Israeli invasion or expansion, these groups will be called upon for support and the equation will change.”
