“Trump has never been so enthusiastic about the idea of recognizing the EU as his interlocutor,” a third European diplomat said deadpan. The EU diplomats spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss freely their sensitive relationship with Washington.
Even if Trump doesn’t take office until January, we already know what a confrontation with the EU will look like. The president-elect pledged to end the war in Ukraine shortly after entering the White House, which will likely mean cutting off aid to Kiev unless it agrees to cede territory to Russia. Republicans also said they would encourage Russia to “do whatever it wants” with countries that fail to meet NATO spending targets.
The economy is a much more immediate source of concern. US President Donald Trump promised to impose tariffs of 10 to 20 percent on Europe. He also threatened to impose a 60% tax on all Chinese products, which could force China to turn to European markets.
EU diplomats are also concerned that Trump will threaten to impose tariffs on countries that do not increase their defense spending. This is because Germany, which has already established itself as the engine of the European economy, is one of his main targets.
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Ursula von der Leyen hopes that all this will force the EU to close its ranks and cooperate more closely, as it did at the beginning of the corona crisis and the war in Ukraine. Pressure from Washington may leave the coalition with no choice but to increase defense spending, strengthen the technology sector and clarify its position on China. There are so many difficult decisions that some Member States have been asking for for years.
On paper, von der Leyen is believed to be one of Washington’s main European interlocutors, overseeing a broad swath of EU policy, including trade, climate, technology and competition.