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Vice President Kamala Harris and the Democratic Party had a successful convention in Chicago this week. They sought to counter the other party’s attacks at every turn. The Harris-Walz team repeatedly argued, especially in the vice president’s Thursday night speech, that they were for national unity, against ideology, for the middle class, for women, and above all, for America.
Even the casual observer couldn’t help but notice that Vice President Harris’s speech contained little in the way of an agenda or policy prescription for the United States. The Harris-Walz strategists know that on issues, they could easily lose to former President Donald Trump. But on life stories, aspirations, and symbolism, the Democrats have a much better chance of turning what was once a possible defeat under Joe Biden into a potential victory under Kamala Harris.
The Democratic National Convention this week has been marked by high spirits and jubilant politics, and Harris herself was able to live up to the occasion Thursday night. She made voters of all parties and ideologies feel like they had a place to stand. With ~ With them For ~ According to her, Donald Trump mostly hung out with billionaires, and was a contrast to her older, out-of-touch persona.
Kamala Harris officially accepts Democratic nomination at DNC
The vice president and her surrogate were both strong. They tried to create a patriotic tone and reassure voters in a firm tone that they would stand with their allies in Europe and Ukraine (but probably not Israel). Harris and her advocates were very clear that they would stand with the middle class for the middle class, but most importantly, they were very clear that the goal was to make this a contest primarily about women for women, and to highlight and exacerbate the gender gap.
Harris-Walz is likely to have a slight boost coming off a very well-planned and well-executed Democratic convention in Chicago. The vice president will likely enter the fall campaign with a narrow but solid lead over former President Trump nationally and in most swing states.
The election is ultimately a referendum on the incumbent. We will see in the September 10 debate between the vice president and the former president whether Harris can avoid the stigma of the current president’s perceived failures in his waning years.
But make no mistake: It would be a mistake to believe that the four days of spectacle that the Democrats were able to produce fundamentally changed or altered the overall direction of this race. While there were many who were inspired by the event, few saw or heard anything that fundamentally differentiated the Democratic candidates on the issues that American voters care deeply about: inflation, the cost of living, immigration and crime. There was not enough to provide a significant contrast to former President Trump.
Trump slams Harris as part of social flurry over what he ‘didn’t mention’ in DNC speech
The convention began with incumbent President Joe Biden’s approval rating below 40%. Despite a successful convention, Biden’s approval rating is very likely flat this week. I say that because ultimately, an election is a referendum on the incumbent. We’ll see if Harris can avoid the stigma of the now-decaying incumbent’s perceived failures in the September 10 debate between the vice president and the former president.
Given what the national media will say now, and the inevitable surge in political support the Democratic candidate will receive after the convention, this election is still likely to be very close. It could be as close as the previous presidential elections in 2016 and 2020.
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Until the polls come in after the Harris-Trump debate on September 10, we won’t know for sure where the 2024 campaign is headed. But even then, keep in mind that Trump has consistently done much better in the polls than he did in the run-up to the election. What many in the liberal media might describe as the inevitability of a Harris-Waltz is more likely, and much more likely, to be a repeat of the last two national elections. In other words, a Democratic victory after the convention is not guaranteed. Instead, this election will be very close.
The biggest question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans now is whether they can recalibrate their campaign around criticism of Vice President Harris as effectively as they can around criticism of the current president.
Our last presidential election was ultimately decided by less than 100,000 votes. The same is likely to happen in 2024, despite the national media seemingly supporting Harris-Wales and their belief that the current vice president is likely to win the presidency.
Both parties had successful conventions this summer. In Chicago this week, Harris was able to address most, if not all, of her negative aspects in general terms: too left, polarized, no record, soft on immigration and crime. It’s clear she’ll continue this line for the rest of the campaign.
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The biggest question facing Donald Trump and his fellow Republicans now is whether they can refocus their campaign on criticism of Vice President Harris as effectively as they can on criticism of the current president. That’s a big unanswered question as we move forward, with the presidential campaign traditionally kicking off on Labor Day.
The bottom line is that the politics of joy are not necessarily the politics of victory.
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