The presidential race is tight and neither candidate has a clear lead. But in the final weekend before Election Day, both Vice President Harris and former President Trump are ready to declare victory.
Both campaigns say they have laid the groundwork for victory. I think both men have the right reasons for why they should win.
The Harris campaign said their ground game will help get them through, pointing to more than 2,500 staff and volunteers in key states. They also say issues like abortion and Harris’ favorability rating, which is several points higher than Trump’s Decision Desk HQ/The Hill average poll, will help propel the vice president to the White House.
At the same time, the Trump campaign points to polls showing voters do not think the country is heading in the right direction, highlighting recent cost increases and the overall “mood” of the economy.
Harris is also said to be tied to President Biden, whose approval rating is below par. Historically, they say, the opposition party wins when the incumbent’s approval rating is low (Biden’s is at 40%). They also feel good about registration and early voting numbers.
“I think both sides have good reasons for how and why victory is possible,” said a Democratic strategist close to the Harris campaign. “That’s part of why it’s so close and why neither side has an advantage. “All the polls are ridiculously close.”
A Gallup poll released this week found that about 49% of Americans have a favorable view of Harris, while 44% have a favorable view of Trump. Harris’s running mate, Governor Tim Walz (Minnesota), also showed a higher favorable rating at 45% than Trump’s running mate, Senator JD Vance (Ohio) (39%).
Gallup notes that these numbers bode well for Harris. That’s because candidates with more favorable ratings have generally won recent presidential elections.
“Honestly, there are a lot of data points and reasons why I think Harris will win, but there is also a Porter Stewart analogy. “You can’t define a winning campaign, but you know it when you see it.” Democratic strategist Christy Setzer said. “Harris continues to fill stadiums and generate excitement while controlling the media narrative.”
“It’s incredible what she’s doing right now and over the last 100 days, and she’s making it look easy.”
Since becoming the Democratic nominee, Harris has made abortion an issue, and Democrats say that was a wise move.
They point to a recent NBC News poll that found voters feel “strongly” about abortion. When respondents were asked whether there was a strong issue that influenced their vote for or against a candidate, 22% cited abortion. It was a higher priority than other issues, including immigration, protecting democracy, and the cost of living.
Since the Supreme Court’s 2022 ruling against Roe v. Wade, Democrats have successfully rallied women around the issue, drawing record voter turnouts in the 2022 midterm elections. And that momentum shows no signs of slowing, Democrats say.
Democratic strategist Eddie Vale said, “So far, women are still voting at post-Dobbs levels, and we have yet to see anything equivalent to the ‘sibling vote surge’ they are targeting.” “Harris has a strong message of closure on the economy, abortion, and democracy, while Trump goes from disgruntled to disgruntled to masquerading as a scumbag and threatening to shoot people.”
But the Trump campaign said its message on key issues, including the economy and immigration, resonated with voters, a point acknowledged even by Republicans who do not support Trump.
“When he gets the message and talks about the issues, his arguments cause more confusion than Kamala’s,” said one Republican strategist. “I still can’t tell you what her vision was.”
Caroline Leavitt, a national spokeswoman for the Trump campaign, said Republicans have seen “massive increases in voter registration, and in every battleground state we’re seeing much better early voting rates than we had two to four years ago.”
“Voters know Kamala Harris destroyed our country, but President Trump will fix it when he ends inflation, secures our borders, and makes America strong again. That’s why he’s in a great position to win,” Leavitt added.
Republicans say they have successfully tied Harris to Biden, who remains unpopular with American voters, which serves as a red flag to political observers.
“The bottom line is Kamala Harris wins. She has to break history,” CNN’s Harry Enten, who analyzes election data, told the cable network this week. Enten also pointed to recent public opinion polls that show a majority of Americans think the country is headed in the wrong direction.
“There has never been a time when 28% of Americans think that America is on the right track where the current political party has actually won,” Enten said.
Republicans also argue that Trump has also had significant influence with Hispanic and black men.
“The question is whether they can get to the polls now,” said Matt Gorman, a Republican strategist who worked on recent presidential campaigns. “If he achieves his goals with both subsets of the electorate, watch out.”
A comedian caused an uproar at a Trump rally in New York City last weekend after he made an inappropriate joke about Latinos and Puerto Ricans.
On Friday, Harris campaign aides said they saw the rally halted. Give undecided voters a chance in the final days of the campaign. Officials said internal data showed Harris winning by double digits among voters who had recently decided who to support.
The Harris campaign also got some good news Saturday after a Des Moines Register/Mediacom poll in Iowa showed Harris with a 3-point lead over Trump.
A poll of more than 800 voters showed Harris leading Trump 47% to 44%. Although the poll is within the margin of error, it represents a significant change from a state poll in September that showed President Trump ahead by 4 points.
The Trump campaign immediately deemed the poll a significant outlier, but it still provided a shocking boost to Harris’ camp.
A second Democratic strategist said that while Trump has been seen as a candidate with momentum over the past few weeks, Harris has seen a kind of turning point in the past few days.
“I think we’re exactly where we need to be,” the strategist said.
But Vale and other Democrats came to one conclusion. The thing is, no one knows how this will end.
“It’s going to be a long and difficult road to the end,” Vale said. “But the saying ‘access only counts as horseshoes and grenades’ also applies to the Electoral College.”
