Sunday’s Wimbledon final looks set to be an epic rematch of last year, with Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic battling for the title. Can defending champion Alcaraz win again? Or will Djokovic claim a record 25th Grand Slam title? We asked the experts.
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Alcaraz beats Medvedev to reach Wimbledon final
Reigning champion Carlos Alcaraz was emotional after defeating Daniil Medvedev in four sets to reach the 2024 Wimbledon final.
What can Alcaraz do to beat Djokovic?
Darcy Main: Can we first be thankful that this rematch is on Sunday? Whoever wins, it’s likely to be a classic, and there’s a lot on the line for both. Get your popcorn ready — or your strawberries and cream ready —
Alcaraz already has the exact blueprint for beating Djokovic in a Wimbledon final, and he’ll have to figure out how to replicate it as much as possible. “I know what to do,” he said of the possibility of facing Djokovic again on Friday. Alcaraz would like to get off to a better start this time, but it’s something that’s been bothering him all tournament long. He’s lost the opening set in three of his Wimbledon matches. It would certainly help him if he could bring the level of intensity he’s been known for since the beginning, but as he’s proven, it’s not a necessity.
In the 2023 finals, Alcaraz took control of the game as he began to utilize his versatility and drop shot, and that will be a deciding factor again on Sunday. He has youth, speed and health, which could be the deciding factor late in the game.
Bill Connelly: Suffer. We know Alcaraz can do it, but we don’t know yet if Djokovic can do it. He won the quarterfinals and only played 17 sets in the sixth round, thanks to a draw against a top-20 opponent. That may be the most favorable draw he’s ever seen at a Slam. It’s still amazing that he did it so quickly after undergoing serious knee surgery, but how did we get here without knowing what Djokovic’s typically superhuman fitness level is?
Alcaraz is one of 11 active or retired players who knows what it’s like to beat Djokovic in a five-set match, and he likely has a much greater physical advantage than usual. The grind and pain that makes this match as physical as possible could pay off even more than usual against Djokovic.
Sam Bowden: Move him and put him on the court. No matter how strong Djokovic’s knees look — what he did so soon after surgery was ridiculous — there are still moments in every match where he hesitates or double-clutches a hairpin slide or turn. Can he be 100 percent? Maybe. But I’m not convinced that there’s still a little question mark over how long Djokovic’s knees can hold up. And Alcaraz, who seems to get stronger as the match progresses, can continue to test him with drop shots and side-to-side groundstrokes like no one else. If this goes all the way, I hope Alcaraz can do it.
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Djokovic wins straight sets to reach 10th Wimbledon final
Novak Djokovic defeated Lorenzo Musetti in straight sets and will face Carlos Alcaraz again after their Wimbledon final defeat last year.
What can Djokovic do to beat Alcaraz?
main: Rely on his experience and mental toughness. I can’t help but think of the 2023 Cincinnati Open final where these two faced each other. Sure, it was a best-of-three, the surface was different, and Djokovic was having knee surgery, as well as struggling noticeably for much of the match due to the heat, falling behind by a set and a break. But as soon as Alcaraz allowed himself a little opening, Djokovic started to find his way back. He dominated the rallies, was aggressive, and ultimately won the marathon.
It was just six weeks after the Wimbledon final, and Djokovic was likely thinking of some sort of revenge, especially this time around when the stakes were higher. He wasn’t the most likely candidate to make it to the final, but he seems to enjoy being rude and being the underdog, no matter how trivial.
Cornelly: Basically, serve big. Sometimes the stats are pretty straightforward. Djokovic and Alcaraz have played each other five times. If Djokovic wins 67% of his first serve points, he wins. If he doesn’t, he loses. He was 62% in last year’s Wimbledon final, while Medvedev was 62% against Alcaraz in the semifinals on Friday.
Alcaraz’s serve has been quite erratic in this tournament, and it’s fair to assume he’ll need a healthy amount of success in the return game. If Djokovic is in control of his first serve, he’ll probably win.
Boden: Jannik Sinner (and others) have had some success against Alcaraz by going on the offensive and attacking his forehand. It’s a formula that can go very badly with Alcaraz, but as Bill points out, Alcaraz’s serve is so hit-and-miss that there’s a scenario where he can get frustrated with his serve and be a little more mentally vulnerable if his forehand bounces a little.
Djokovic is a master strategist, so he would know how successful Sinner has been with this plan, and he would have the skills to implement it successfully himself.
Who will win?
main: Logically, Alcaraz should win. He knows exactly what it takes to beat Djokovic at the All England Club, has been in great form throughout the tournament, and is fresh off his title at Roland Garros, while Djokovic is just five weeks out from knee surgery. But despite the difficulties of the season and his health, this is still a Novak Djokovic, Probably the greatest man in the sport. I can’t see him missing this opportunity, especially after last year’s bitter disappointment. Don’t explain any further. I’ll just say Djokovic will win in five sets.
Cornelly: Despite the easy draw, I have a hard time understanding how Djokovic got to this point. He had a painfully mediocre season, tore his meniscus, had it removed and… got better a few weeks later. What? So it seems like a ridiculous choice to pick him, but I will. Alcaraz won the last Slam, he beat Djokovic on this very court, they were both at 100%, he did it a year ago, and he will do it again. This time, let’s go to four sets.
Boden: The moment has come. No. 25 is waiting, and Djokovic is ready to play his last violin symphony for his daughter on Centre Court. Before the tournament, I thought it was more likely that he would skip this tournament to prepare for the Olympics. A gold medal would be the only honor he has not won in this sport. But apparently I was wrong. Djokovic wins the rematch 4-1.
