Donald Trump’s second presidency will have profound implications for Europe. Epi GH Pedaliu They argue that the EU and UK must learn to work together, particularly on trade and defence, if they are to navigate the chaos ahead.
The new Trump presidency raises the specter of a trade war, the lifting of the NATO security blanket in Europe, the possible abandonment of Ukraine and the withdrawal of the United States from international cooperation on climate action.
A new world order is emerging. Although its outlines are unclear, human rights and international law are unlikely to sustain themselves. As protectionism and authoritarianism grow, international competition intensifies, and nuclear risks intensify, international cooperation on global issues will decline. The given geopolitical certainty is becoming obsolete.
Trump and Europe
No part of the world is likely to be more affected than Europe, including the UK. Both the EU and the UK depend on transatlantic trade and US security guarantees. Transatlanticism is essential to their happiness and even identity.
In his victory speech on November 6, President Trump pledged to “keep my promise.” He promised to “stop wars abroad” and impose new tariffs of at least 10% on most foreign goods entering the United States to reduce America’s trade deficit and increase employment. He promised to overturn climate protection legislation and “fracking, shredding, shredding and drill, baby, drill.”
In economies such as the EU and the UK, which are built on free trade and recent decarbonization, this idea raises concerns and points to a difficult future relationship with the US. Moreover, economists believe that US tariffs are likely to increase inflationary pressures globally.
The EU and the UK now face a more bleak security environment than in 2016. EU and UK member states are at peace, but Europe’s borders are in flames. Wars are raging from Ukraine to the Middle East, spreading geopolitical and economic instability. Russia has a stake in both conflicts. Iran is an arsenal for Russia, Hamas, Hezbollah, the Houthis and other anti-Western and anti-Israel terrorist groups in the Middle East. The important point is that Russia could not have waged war so aggressively without Chinese support.
What we know about Trump 2.0
It is well known that Trump hates NATO and multilateralism and loves tariffs and “strong leaders.” His penchant for contempt and seeking revenge makes Trump 2.0 an entirely different proposition than Trump 1.0.
First, he knows who to follow. Second, he has gone on record saying that he will allow Russia to do whatever it wants to NATO allies that do not pay enough. Third, this time there will be no mediating influence in the Oval Office or Situation Room.
Most of the officials and aides who tried to hold him back during his first term will no longer be there. There is a high possibility that ideological zealots and extreme right-wingers will dominate the new government. Even Mike Pompeo, Trump’s CIA director and first-term secretary of state, failed the test.
Accordingly, from what is known about his foreign policy nominations so far, their focus will be on China, away from Europe, and likely following his desire to quickly end the war as far as Ukraine is concerned. It is not yet known what policy Trump will follow in Ukraine, but he has been consistently critical of U.S. spending to support Ukraine.
Digging deeper into his choices for some key positions may provide some clues. Elise Stefanik, her pick for U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, was one of the House members who voted against the $61 billion aid plan for Ukraine in April 2024. Marco Rubio is slated to become Secretary of State and is a “hawk” on foreign policy toward China, Iran and Cuba, but not an isolationist. Recently he has taken a callous stance toward Ukraine, saying “I’m not on Russia’s side.” But the war in Ukraine is a “stalemate” and can only end with a “negotiated solution.”
Mike Waltz is set to become Trump’s national security adviser. Waltz believes the wars in Gaza and Ukraine must end quickly so the United States can refocus on China. At NATO, he did not reflect Trump’s extreme rhetoric. John Ratcliffe, who served as Director of National Intelligence from 2020 to 2021, will be Trump’s next CIA director, and his views on China and Iran are ‘hawkish’. He is unimpressed with Biden’s policies toward Israel, but his position on Ukraine is less clear after his first endorsement in 2022.
Fox News host and former soldier Pete Hegseth has been chosen as the next secretary of defense, and he is a critic of U.S. intervention in Ukraine. Talsi Gabbard, a former Democrat, is expected to be the new Director of National Intelligence. Over the years, she has expressed controversial opinions about Russia, Syria, and Ukraine.
What can be said about the above team is that while some have a solid foundation in foreign and defense policy, there are many more who lack both knowledge and experience and are prone to passing along conspiracy theories. But all of this hasn’t put pressure on him about taking on a position that could potentially keep America safe.
Russia, Ukraine and Middle East
Both the EU and the UK have ostensibly decided to continue supporting Ukraine. Their problem is that it is unclear how long Ukraine can hold out without U.S. support. It is unclear where this leaves Taiwan and what signal the United States will send to China to abandon Ukraine.
Russia remains one of the most immediate security threats facing the UK, EU and global security. Both the EU and the UK need NATO to maintain effective defences. Both have failed to “prove Trump” their defenses since Trump first took office. Building defense capabilities is a long-term effort and cannot be achieved overnight.
In the Middle East, Trump has supported Israel in its war against Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu was one of the first foreign leaders to congratulate Trump on his election victory. Trump asked Netanyahu to get the job done quickly. How it fits into Netanyahu’s agenda is another matter, and the two have always had a somewhat dysfunctional relationship.
Saudi Arabia’s agenda could also influence U.S. policy, and the Abraham Accords may have given signatories the impetus to pursue alliance formation. Trump 2.0 is expected to have an impact on Iran, especially after the assassination plot against Trump and other American citizens was uncovered. One thing is certain: the situation in the Middle East means increased domestic turmoil and migration pressures for the UK and EU to deal with, creating further uncertainty.
Unification or disintegration?
President Trump has previously said he views the EU as one of America’s “biggest enemies” and recently called the EU a “mini China.” During Trump’s first term, the EU took a firmer stance toward accepting Brexit. The European Union (EU) is currently in a transition period, internally divided and grappling with a stagnant economy.
Germany is in a political crisis. With the coalition government collapsing, Chancellor Olaf Scholz faces calls to resign before federal elections in February 2025. President Emmanuel Macron is also navigating France’s unstable political landscape.
As news of Trump’s victory crossed the Atlantic, both leaders called for Europe to unite and become more self-reliant on defense issues. Their weakened position made their appeals hollow. Especially when Scholz forgets his position. turning point At that moment, contacts with President Putin began, leading some to suggest that a new “Munich” was coming.
Trump may also decide to use European extremism and populist politicians within Europe to divide the EU. These actors may interpret Trump’s re-election as validation of their own extremism. Under such pressure, will the EU choose integration or disintegration?
The “rules-based international order” established by the United States and its allies after World War II depends on the United States being a fully participating and predictable actor in the friendship of nations. It has largely survived the antics of Trump 1.0, but remains withered.
This November, the American people exercised their democratic rights through free and fair elections. This time, Trump won the popular vote and won both the Senate and the House of Representatives. He will enter the White House unpunished for his actions, giving him powers that no other president has had during his time in office.
If the EU and UK want to survive the major disruptions ahead, they will need to learn to work together, especially on trade and defence. The first step is to give weight to Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s claim that “no one will allow Ukraine to weaken or surrender.”
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Main image source: Jonah Elkowitz /Shutterstock.com
