The next week brings major decisions for two European countries that were once part of the Soviet Union. What is their job on the geopolitical chessboard? Should they continue on their path of rapprochement with the West and the European Union, or is it time to return to Moscow? It may seem like an extreme simplification, but this is the binary choice facing Georgia and Moldova. The decisions of these two countries, along with the outcome of the war in Ukraine, will determine the contours of Europe tomorrow.
On October 20, Moldovans will vote in the first round of the presidential election and choose in a referendum whether to amend the constitution to allow the country to join the EU. In six days, Georgians will elect a parliament that will decide whether to end 12 years of government by the populist pro-Russian Georgian Dream party and hand the country into the hands of the pro-European opposition.
In this opinion poll, Maia Sandu, the current president of Moldova and a pro-European liberal party, has a clear lead over his rivals. Her strongest opponent is former Prosecutor General Alexandru Stoianoglo, the pro-Russian candidate for the Socialist Party, led by former President Igor Dodon. As for the referendum, the same poll found that two-thirds favored the Yes side, a similar figure to Moldova’s EU membership (63%). But if the pro-European side does not win, pro-Russian or “sovereignist” parties will push for rapprochement with Moscow. The result is likely to be repressive legislation inspired by Russian laws against foreign agents, as has happened in Hungary, Bulgaria and Georgia.
In Georgia, the situation is more complicated. In recent months, the positions of the government and opposition parties have hardened. The ruling Georgian Dream (KO) party is being manipulated in increasingly covert ways by Bizina Ivanishvili, the party’s founder and the country’s richest man (his wealth is estimated to account for nearly 30% of the country’s GDP). As it continues to advocate for closer ties with Europe, the government is adopting measures that appear straight out of the Kremlin’s handbook on authoritarian regimes.
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Georgia’s recent law on “foreign agents” and a law adopted in September 2024 to ban “LGBT propaganda” are so incompatible with EU membership that Brussels halted the accession process, which began in December 2023. The purpose of this law is the same as in Vladimir’s original. Putin’s Russia aims to root out dissenting opinions by crushing civil society. The de facto side effect would be Georgia distancing itself from the West and reconciling with Moscow.
Almost 90% of Georgians want to join the EU.
That outcome is clearly not what most Georgians want. Almost 90% of them want to join the EU. But the less attentive among them are vulnerable to the rhetorical gymnastics of Judgment KO. While the party claims to seek EU membership (its ubiquitous campaign logo even includes a European flag), it repeatedly expresses gestures of goodwill, even submission, towards the Kremlin. To the extent that several KO members became targets of US sanctions.
KO received about 33% of the vote in recent polls. To oppose this, civil society and the opposition party came together as a united front. More than 99% of organizations subject to the so-called Russian law (small associations, NGOs and independent media outlets) refused to register as “foreign agents.” This risks facing them huge fines, but they are betting that it will mark the end of Ivanishvili’s party’s rule. The political opposition, once fragmented into various movements with different orientations, regrouped into a few informal coalitions. According to the previously mentioned opinion poll, their vote rate is expected to approach 50%.
Georgian President Salome Zoravichvili (independent) has used every means possible to secure Georgia’s European foothold. Her “Georgia Charter” aims to provide a roadmap for pro-Western opposition to the Georgian dream. The document proposes that after the elections, a technical government should ensure a democratic transition and implement the necessary reforms in EU member states. 19 political parties joined.
KO is playing the card of division by posing as a guarantor of traditional values (it enjoys the support of the Orthodox Church) against pro-Western liberals. First, Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced the ban of the opposition coalition after the elections, accusing Ivanishvili of “wanting to open a second front in Georgia” of the war in Ukraine.
Georgia has something in common with Ukraine. Both countries were once republics of the Soviet Union and are now occupied by Russian or pro-Russian forces. (In 2008, Moscow invaded the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. The Georgians invaded Tskhinvali.) . KO thus plays on Georgians’ fears of being dragged into a conflict across the Black Sea by what they call the “Party of the World War”, a Western coalition supporting Ukraine against Russia. But judging by the numerous Ukrainian flags and anti-Russian graffiti on the streets of Tbilisi, solidarity between Westerners and Ukraine is shared by many Georgians.
With the ostensible purpose of saving Georgia’s fate from that of Ukraine, the Georgian Dream seems to have made a pact with the Russian devil. The party’s mafia-style intimidation methods appear to have been inspired by Russia’s security agency, the FSB. Mark MikiashviliResearcher and member of the liberal Droa party. For months, opposition figures and their families have been receiving anonymous calls containing varying degrees of threats.
They were followed through the streets, beaten by masked thugs and subjected to defamation campaigns. The latter took the form of posters with his picture and the word “traitor” plastered around his home or workplace. These methods are “very different from what Georgians are used to, with levels of physical and verbal violence we have never seen before,” Mikiashvili says.
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Georgian civil society also responded in kind. Hundreds of thousands of people took to the streets to demand the withdrawal of the draft “Russian law” in the largest protests in Tbilisi since independence in 1991. The leaders of this movement were Generation Z. Their independence, creativity and spirit of solidarity made a lasting impression both in Georgia and abroad.
Venezuela Scenario
Meanwhile, Georgia Dream naturally rejects any form of coercion. Despite the evidence, he claims to be confident of victory. Media outlets close to Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze and the government repeat that KO is polling at 60%. According to historian Beka Kobakhidze (no relation to the prime minister), the figures are “absurd”. “They never got 59% of the vote, and certainly not now, even after months of protests and anti-Western and pro-Western demonstrations. Russia’s policy comes from their side.”
But Beka Kobakhidze highlights the risk that KO will rig the elections and declare itself the winner regardless of the outcome. He points to the scenario in Venezuela, where President Nicolas Maduro has repeatedly acknowledged unfair elections on his way to dictatorial rule. “Worrying signs point in that direction,” says Kobakhidze.
“(KO) has now changed the election law to allow the government to certify the results without opposition party intervention. They erected a 3-metre-high wall around the Electoral Commission headquarters and removed paving stones from the streets near the parliament over fears that protesters might use them, as happened in Kiev during the Maidan uprising in 2009. Late 2013. They have the police, judiciary and election commission in their hands. “So the Maduro scenario is plausible.”
But if such protests take place, Marika Mikiashvili believes, “the government will be reluctant to use violence according to the Russian model.”
“Georgia is a small country. Everyone knows everyone else, and what is considered violence in Georgia may not be considered violence elsewhere. We are not used to violence. Burning cars during protests here is Last year, we had the first firebombing since the pre-independence clashes in 1991. If the government were to open fire on a crowd, most police officers would be under irresistible pressure from society, relatives and families. .”
She said the importance of the election extends beyond Georgia. “Experts agree that Georgia is now at the forefront of civil liberties in the wider region, even including some EU member states.” – This is an implicit reference to Hungary and Slovakia. “If the Georgian Dream remains in power this year and beyond, it will be a huge confidence boost to other illiberals in Europe, especially in the enlarged region, to encourage them to advance the laws and actions they want.”
Particularly vulnerable is neighboring Armenia, another former Soviet republic with complicated relations with Russia. In the latest regional conflict, Armenia lost the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh after Moscow withheld military and diplomatic support. “The victory of the Georgian dream would (thereby) jeopardize Armenia’s physical integrity and democracy, leaving the country under siege by a pro-Russian dictatorship,” Marika Mikiashvili said.
Ukrainian scenario
And if the opposition wins, should we fear a similar scenario to Ukraine in 2014 when Russia invaded it? Beka Kobakhidze warns against comparison:
“Some representatives of the Russian Duma (parliament) have said that Russia is ready to intervene militarily if KO asks for help. But Georgia is not Crimea, so I don’t see how that can happen. Georgians generally support Russian To put it mildly, there are a lot of hybrid mechanisms available to Russia and I believe they will choose that option.”
“I don’t know what the outcome of this election will be,” said Lasha Bakradze, a writer and opposition figure. “What I know is that it will not be fair or free. But we have to fight because this is not a normal election. It is a referendum on the future of Georgia. Do we want to live in a country like Russia? Expression Do you want to be free or part of the Western world and, in the future, part of the EU?”
