Emily Reeve and her husband usually spend Thanksgiving in Hawaii, Florida, and Disneyland, but not this year.
“I have a child now and I’m worried that if I travel after the election I could be in a potentially unstable situation,” said Reeve, 32.
The couple doesn’t have family near their home in Portland, Oregon, so they like to skip town for their November vacation. But this time, trapped in airports and popular travel destinations, he says he’s staying put “to avoid sudden riots or looting because local residents are unhappy with the election results.”
Anxiety surrounding the 2024 vote is causing some consumers to rethink when, where and with whom they travel, industry experts and travel agents say. Meanwhile, federal officials say security procedures are sound ahead of Election Day on November 5.
Delta CEO Ed Bastian said in a recent interview with CNBC that the airline expects consumers to take “a little bit of a break” in the weeks surrounding the election, as it has seen in the past. “People like to stay home during elections. They don’t want to travel,” he said. “I don’t think they’ll want to spend the money until they understand what’s going to happen.”
The pandemic upended travel during the 2020 voting period, but bookings rebounded in the coming weeks after Delta Air Lines saw a surge in demand ahead of the 2016 vote. United Airlines executives said they expect a similar pattern to emerge this month and “I don’t think there’s any surprises.”
Nonetheless, 64% of American adults said they would avoid traveling to the United States due to concerns about anxiety depending on who wins, according to a recent poll by travel site Vacationer. About a quarter said they would stay home only if Vice President Kamala Harris was elected, and only 16% said they would stay home only if former President Donald Trump won. 24% said they would stay regardless of the outcome, and about 36% said the outcome would not affect their plans.
Kelly Soderlund, spokeswoman for Navan, an online business travel management company, said companies are also wary. Domestic flight reservations in election states are down 19% compared to the same week last year. However, bookings for the next week are 42% higher than the previous seven days and 82% higher than the same week a year ago.
“When we talk about our customers’ biggest concerns regarding travel programs, managing the duty of care – the duty employers have to keep their employees safe – ranks highest,” Soderlund said.
The 2024 primary has sparked intense polarization, with Republican lawsuits over voting procedures already mounting in battleground states and the Republican ticket repeatedly evading its comments on the 2020 primary and its willingness to accept the results of the current primary. Officials are increasing security around polling places and both campaigns after two assassination attempts against Trump and threats against poll workers were widely reported.
“The Transportation Security Administration remains vigilant in the heightened global threat environment,” the spokesperson said, adding that the U.S. Marshals Service “continues to perform critical in-flight security missions” and perform other duties to keep travelers safe. . “We prepare for every eventuality and apply multiple layers of security, both visible and invisible.”
“Passengers will likely notice increased airport security in the coming weeks,” said Jeffrey Price, who runs Leading Edge Strategies, an aviation security consulting firm. In addition to more uniformed officers, “there may also be a combination of plainclothes law enforcement officers among the passengers,” he said.
Still, 38% of U.S. adults are planning to travel this holiday season, up from 34% last year, according to a recent survey by research firm MMGY Travel Intelligence. According to consulting firm PwC, concerns about rising travel costs have decreased to 61% this season, compared to 68% last year. That leaves more room for political unrest to creep into consumers’ travel considerations, travel companies say.
“Just a few months ago, many families were enjoying the holiday and spending more money than usual,” said Sonia Bhagwan, who owns Portland-based agency Dreaming of Sun and previously booked Reeve’s Thanksgiving trip. These days, “uncertainty about what the economy will do after the election is the biggest factor,” she said.
That’s partly why Olivia MacLeod Dwinell, 64, and her husband Ross Dwinell, 74, visited Europe this month.
“Regardless of the outcome, there will be some instability for a while after the election,” Dwinell said. The visit to London and France was Ross’s first trip abroad, and “the thought that we might be stranded abroad due to turmoil at home was enough to accelerate our plans,” Dwinell said. “We are not young, and we are less brave than we were in the past.”
Kimberly Kracun, owner of Destinations by Kimberly in Harpers Ferry, West Virginia, said she was recently approached about booking a cruise for a multigenerational family. But two of them work for the federal government, and “they’re worried about their jobs and the possibility of furlough after the election,” she said. Current government funding only lasts until Dec. 20 and risks closure if the lame-duck Congress fails to reach a deal at the end of the year.
“They have now decided to wait another year for their vacation,” Krakun said.
Some people worry about going on a trip and what will happen when they finally meet their relatives.
Only about 22% of travelers expect politics to spark conflict at family gatherings this year, according to a recent survey by tourism market research firm Future Partners. However, this percentage increases to approximately 38% for Gen Z and 29% for Millennial travelers, compared to just 11% for Baby Boomers.
Chirag Panchal, founder of Ensuite Collection, a Dallas-based luxury travel agency, primarily has clients who book Thanksgiving trips with their families scattered across the country. “But this year is different,” he said.
After several tense political conversations within the family, the children expressed concerns about friction at holiday gatherings, Panchal said his client told him. So the parents stay in Dallas and the kids make separate plans.
For now, “we’ve canceled going anywhere as a family,” he said.
