Diplomatic difficulties for Indian PM in Kiev after Moscow visit

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will visit Ukraine on Friday for talks with President Volodymyr Zelensky, just weeks after he met Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow.

The visit is significant because Kiev and some Western capitals have reacted sensitively to it. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to the Russian capital July.

President Zelensky was particularly critical, saying he was “disappointed to see the leader of the world’s largest democratic country embracing one of the world’s most brutal criminals in Moscow.”

So, did Prime Minister Modi visit Kiev to appease President Zelensky and other Western leaders?

Not entirely.

It is not surprising that India has managed to balance relations between two rival countries or blocs. The country’s famous non-aligned approach to geopolitics has served it well for decades.

Friday’s visit is the first by an Indian prime minister to Ukraine and signals India’s willingness to continue to maintain strong ties with Russia while also working closely with the West.

Michael Kugelman, director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center think tank in Washington, said the visit would further solidify India’s strategic autonomy.

“India is not in the business of appeasing the Western powers or anyone else. This is a trip to advance India’s interests by reaffirming its friendship with Kyiv and conveying its concerns about the ongoing war,” he said.

But the timing of the visit reflects the sharp reaction Indian diplomats have received from the US to Modi’s visit to Moscow.

In India Refrained from criticizing Russia directly The war caused great anger among the Western powers.

However, Delhi has often spoken of the importance of respecting territorial integrity and the sovereignty of the country. It has consistently pursued diplomacy and dialogue to end the war.

Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Moscow in July came hours after a Russian bombing killed at least 41 people in Ukraine, including a children’s hospital in Kiev, sparking global condemnation.

The Indian prime minister said the children’s deaths were painful and horrifying, but stopped short of blaming Russia.

Mr Modi is unlikely to deviate from this position during his visit to Kiev. The US and other Western countries have come closer to accepting Delhi’s position, given India’s longstanding relationship with Moscow and its dependence on Russian military hardware.

India, the world’s largest arms importer, has diversified its defense import portfolio and grown domestic manufacturing in recent years, but still buys more than 50 percent of its defense equipment from Russia.

India has increased its oil imports from Russia, taking advantage of Moscow’s low prices. Russia was India’s largest supplier of oil last year.

The United States and its allies have often urged India to take a clear stance on the war, but have refrained from imposing harsh sanctions or pressure.

The West also sees India as a counterweight to China and is reluctant to disrupt that dynamic. Now the world’s fifth-largest economy, India is also a growing market for business.

Mr Kugelman said the West would welcome the visit and see it as a sign of Delhi’s willingness to engage with all sides.

“Prime Minister Modi has a strong incentive to signal that he is not getting too close to Moscow to the point where there is nothing to be gained from Kiev,” he said.

This is important because India wants to continue to nurture its relationship with the West, particularly the United States, and does not want to break the momentum. The US ambassador to India, Eric Garcetti, recently said that relationship “cannot be taken for granted.”

India also needs help from the West. In Asia, rivals China and Russia have developed closer ties in recent years.

Delhi has long viewed Moscow as a power that can pressure China when necessary, but it cannot take that for granted.

Meanwhile, many media commentators have noted that Prime Minister Modi could position himself as a peace broker, given India’s close ties with both Moscow and the West.

But it’s unlikely he’ll show up with a peace plan.

“Can India really do that? And are the conditions right? India doesn’t like other countries trying to mediate in its issues, especially on Kashmir. And I don’t think Prime Minister Modi will formally offer mediation unless Russia and Ukraine want it. And I don’t think they will at this point,” Mr. Kugelman added.

But Ukraine will still welcome Modi’s visit and see it as an opportunity to engage with Moscow’s close ally, something it has rarely done since the war began.

But Mr Zelensky is unlikely to hold back on his criticism of Mr Putin in front of the Indian prime minister. Mr Modi can tolerate it, having faced such situations many times in other Western capitals.

Moscow is unlikely to react to this visit, as it has made concessions to Delhi’s multilateral approach to geopolitics.

But beyond reaffirming its non-alignment policy, Delhi has a bigger goal in mind from this visit.

India has been expanding its engagement with Europe over the past decade, particularly with underserved areas in Central and Eastern Europe.

Delhi wants to strengthen ties with the big four – Britain, Italy, Germany and France – but also expand its engagement with other European countries.

Mr Modi will also visit Poland on this trip, becoming the first Indian prime minister to visit Poland in 45 years. He also became the first Indian prime minister to visit Austria in 41 years in July.

Analysts say this is a sign that India is increasingly aware that Central European countries will play a bigger role in geopolitics in the future, and that forging stronger ties with them would be a big plus for Delhi.

The Indian government has also revived trade deal talks with Europe. It has signed a trade and investment agreement with the European Free Trade Association, an intergovernmental organization of Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland.

So while there will be a lot of focus on the war during his visit, Indian diplomats are likely to remain focused on a larger objective.

“Central and Eastern Europe now have greater power to write their own destiny and reshape regional geopolitics. Prime Minister Modi’s visit to Warsaw and Kiev is about recognizing the momentous changes taking place in the heart of Europe and deepening bilateral political, economic and security ties with Central European countries,” foreign policy analyst C. Raja Mohan wrote. Indian Express The paper outlines Prime Minister Modi’s broad goals.