Democratic strategists worried about former President Trump’s poll dominance are hoping Vice President Harris will benefit from a surge of Democratic “ghost voters.” This was captured in a recent opinion poll.
Polls in battleground states like Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are not promising for Harris, given Trump’s history of winning more votes in those states on Election Day in 2016 and 2020 than pre-show polls.
Harris held a rally with Beyoncé in Houston on Friday to further emphasize abortion rights in the final days of her campaign, amplifying her national message targeting women between the ages of 18 and 35, her “low-propensity” voters.
“The reason there were ghost voters in 2018 and 2022 is because turnout was higher than Republicans expected and, especially in 2022, there was a surge in young pro-choice female voters,” said Selinda Lake, a Democratic pollster. .
She said Harris could benefit significantly from young women who have never voted before, vote only occasionally and are not captured in many polls.
Trump benefited from ghost voters in 2016 and 2020 when he performed better at the polls because working-class, non-college-educated voters with no voting experience turned out in large numbers to support his candidacy.
Some Democrats worry Trump could outperform the polls again next month, which would be bad news for Harris since polls show the two candidates deadlocked in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Political handicappers say Harris needs to win the three so-called “blue wall” states to secure victory.
“There is a possibility of ghost voters on both sides. “It’s going to be a young woman who’s on Harris’ side,” Lake said. He pointed out that young women turned out at higher rates than male groups in the 2022 Kansas abortion referendum. Voters in that referendum overwhelmingly rejected the anti-abortion amendment. In the state constitution.
Women, who could represent a surge of “ghost voters” for Harris, typically do not participate in politics or follow campaign developments through traditional media outlets.
“Usually the reason we miss them is because they have no voting record or very irregular voting records,” Lake said, explaining why these voters are not measured by pollsters.
“Typically, the reason pollsters miss this is because, first, their turnout estimates are wrong. This is the hardest thing to get,” she added. “These people are often registered, but their voting records are very irregular.”
She said some states, like Wisconsin, allow voters to register on Election Day, which promotes the “ghost voter” phenomenon.
Some Democrats are raising hopes for a “secret surge” in young female voters in the face of disappointing polls.
The latest blow to Democrats came in the final national poll released Friday by The New York Times and Siena College, which found Harris and Trump deadlocked at 48%.
Democrats had hoped Harris would build a strong lead over Trump nationally ahead of Election Day that could extend into crucial swing states.
Rep. Ro Khanna (D-Calif.) is one of many Democrats who hopes the poll misses a broad swath of young female voters who don’t have much of a voting history but who might be motivated by abortion rights and disgust with Trump’s character. . This is a character that appears in droves at voting booths.
“I think we’re going to see a lot of women voting who aren’t counted and aren’t actually registered to vote. We saw this in 2022. Now if people say, ‘Well, Trump was undercounted.’ I believe women will come out in droves.” Khanna told NewsNation’s Chris Cuomo in an interview Thursday night.
“Ultimately, I believe people will be concerned that Donald Trump hasn’t done anything to say, ‘Look, I’m going to govern from the center.’ “I want to try to bring us together,” he said.
Harris has tried to reach these voters through social media, and earlier this month she participated in the “Call Her Daddy” podcast, Spotify’s second most popular podcast, attracting many young female listeners.
Strategists say celebrity endorsements from megastars Taylor Swift and Beyoncé could help motivate young women who tend to abstain from politics to vote.
Analysts who track election data say new voter registrations surged after Swift endorsed Harris and urged her 272 million followers to “speak up.”
Swift’s Instagram support of Harris helped generate nearly half a million new registrants, according to Jessica Herrera, senior director of Supermajority, a group dedicated to building women’s political power.
The overwhelming majority saw a huge surge in enthusiasm and hope for the future among rare voting young women after President Biden announced he would not seek re-election, paving the way for Harris to potentially become the first female president. I opened it.
“A presidential election is a presidential election. Typically, whoever can get more voters who don’t attend the polls wins. Based on what we’ve seen in the data, we strongly believe that it will be young women, especially new registrants, as well as women who don’t often show up for elections,” Herrera said.
She said the mood was “really bad” earlier this year when Biden was expected to become the Democratic presidential nominee, but things changed after Harris entered the race.
“We ran a new survey in September, asking the same questions and seeing almost twice as many positive responses across the board. “Women feel more positive about their own future, they feel more positive about the future of their country, and they feel that even if the government doesn’t work right now, it can work in the future,” she said.
“That hope is so important to civic engagement,” she added.
A September poll of 1,300 women ages 18 to 35 nationwide found that 42% said they were optimistic about the country’s future. In May, only 25% said that.
The survey also found that 86% of young women nationwide feel positive about their future. This compares to 66% in May.
An unexpected surge in young women voting in the 2022 midterm elections was a big reason why Democrats took control of the Senate and didn’t lose as many seats in the House as political handicaps had predicted.
The surge in voter turnout was largely due to the 1973 Roe v. Dobbs v., which overturned the national right to abortion established by the Wade decision. Led by the Supreme Court’s bombshell ruling against the Jackson Women’s Health Organization.
