Croatia’s European Parliament elections will be held two months after the general elections in April. Ivor Sokolic We wrote that much of the debate over the parliamentary elections is likely to continue during the European vote.
This article is part of a series on the 2024 European Parliament elections. The EUROPP blog will also co-host a panel discussion on the LSE elections on 6 June.
Croatian political parties are likely to boost their domestic legitimacy through the 2024 European Parliament elections. The chaotic Croatian parliamentary elections in April have further reduced satisfaction with domestic politics and made EU institutions more trustworthy in the eyes of the Croatian public.
This means that many of the debates discussed in domestic parliamentary elections are likely to continue during the European elections. Parties outside the center, both left and right, are likely to perform well at the expense of traditional centrist parties, and core issues will not change. The discussion will focus on the economy and corruption, as well as the ever-present issues of Croatia’s national identity.
April National Assembly Elections
Incumbent Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic and his center-right Croatian Democratic Union (HDZ) appeared to have little to fear going into the April 2024 parliamentary elections. But their plans to maintain power were thrown into disarray when Zoran Milanovic, the populist Croatian president and a staunch opponent of the prime minister, announced he would run for prime minister as a member of the main opposition center-left SDP. (Social Democratic Party).
Ultimately, he was disqualified from running for office by the Constitutional Court. This energized voters and resulted in high turnout, but it divided the vote to the point where there was no chance of an overall majority and clear unity. The government was formed just over a month after HDZ signed a coalition agreement with the far-right Homeland Movement (DP).
A messy election and its even messier aftermath are likely to further reduce satisfaction with democracy in Croatia. In Croatia, this rate is already very low, according to the latest Eurobarometer. 39% compared to the EU average of 56%. Since European Parliament elections are likely to run more smoothly (political negotiations are likely to be less tribal, but also receive much less coverage in the Croatian media), this may increase satisfaction with the way democracy works in the EU.
This is already slightly higher in Croatia than the EU average (53% in Croatia, 52% in Europe). This has important implications for national politics, as politicians can use the European Parliament elections to strengthen their domestic political positions. Plenkovic has already announced that he will lead the HDZ candidacy in the European Parliament elections in April.
Main Issue
The European Parliament elections are therefore likely to revolve around the same issues as the parliamentary elections. These are the economy and corruption, which reflect the priorities of other voters in Europe. A Eurobarometer survey in Croatia found that these issues are disproportionately important to Croatian voters compared to other issues such as security and defence. migration and exile; And the environment.
Unlike the rest of Europe, Croatia’s political debate is much narrower, despite the rise of out-of-center, left-wing and right-wing parties. These parties are likely to perform well, as they did in parliamentary elections, at the expense of traditional centrist parties. High voter turnout in domestic parliamentary elections may result in more people voting in European Parliament elections, where voter turnout was previously low in Croatia.
Croatia and Europe
Regardless of the outcome of the European Parliament vote, the impact on Croatian politics may not be significant. Croatia tends to follow rather than lead on the European stage. It is a small, young state whose national and nation-building projects are closely tied to what defines itself as “European”. Decisions made at the EU level are therefore considered quite legitimate by both the Croatian people and Croatian politicians (except perhaps only the populist and often Eurosceptic President Milanovic). Following these policies helps maintain Croatia’s image in Europe. For this reason, Euroscepticism has not really taken hold in Croatia.
In particular, a right-wing European Parliament, which includes some far-right elements, will only reflect the composition of the new Croatian government and is likely to increase its legitimacy. Security, immigration, asylum and Euroscepticism are not as prominent in Croatia as other parts of Europe. Croatia still looks to NATO for security reasons, immigration has not yet become a major issue for the country and asylum seekers rarely stay in Croatia for long.
Even if these issues are prominently discussed in the European Parliament or promoted by Croatia’s far right, they are unlikely to have much impact across the Croatian political spectrum if they receive enough votes. At least at first. There is a potential agenda-setting effect over time. Such issues may become more prominent domestically in the future if they are discussed more prominently at the European level and echoed by parties at the national level who will gain additional legitimacy by representing Croatia in EU institutions.
Note: This article gives the views of the author and not the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Featured image credit: European Union
