After 11 years of defense cooperation and spending millions of dollars to maintain military bases, the United States officially withdrew its troops from Niger this week, in what experts call a “blow” to Washington’s ambitions to exert influence in West Africa’s Sahel region.
At one time, the two countries had close relations, and the United States established a large, expensive military base in Niger, from which it flew surveillance drones to monitor numerous armed groups linked to al-Qaeda and ISIL (ISIS).
But those ties broke down in March when Niger’s military junta, which took power in July 2023, canceled a 10-year-old security agreement and told the United States, which was pushing for a transition to civilian rule, to withdraw its 1,100 troops stationed there by September 15.
Analysts said the United States has not shown itself to be fully cooperating with or openly opposing the military for months.
On the one hand, Washington seemed prepared to maintain a defense relationship with the new ruling power, but on the other hand, it felt obliged to condemn the coup and cut off support for Niger.
U.S. officials who visited Niger in December felt insulted by the military government’s push for a transition plan it had no interest in pursuing, and this proved to be the catalyst that led the Nigerien government to order the Americans to withdraw.
“The United States thought they could work with the military and figure out a way to maintain that relationship, but in the months after the coup, it became clear that the United States and Niger had very different visions,” said Liam Carr, Africa team director for the Critical Threats Project, a U.S.-based conflict monitoring group.
“It will diminish the ability of the United States to know what is really happening at the epicenter,” he added, referring to the conflict zone dominated by armed groups along the tri-country border between Niger, Mali and Burkina Faso.
With its most powerful regional ally gone, US Africa Command (AFRICOM) is now looking for possible new partners, but its options are limited by rivalry with Russia, which is seeking influence in the region.
Senior U.S. military officials, including AFRICOM commander General Michael Langley, toured coastal West Africa, including Benin and Côte d’Ivoire, in April for what the U.S. described as “constructive dialogue” with leaders of those countries.
But with the withdrawal from Niger hanging like a dark cloud, experts say Washington must now strike a balancing act: pursuing the impact it achieved in Niger while continuing its surveillance mission in a less resource-intensive manner.
African Americans
Officials often say the U.S. views maintaining military bases in African countries as a vital way to monitor armed groups and respond to the threat of armed violence before it reaches the United States.
Since 2008, AFRICOM has had a presence in 26 African countries. But about 100 U.S. troops stationed in Chad were forced to leave in May after the Chadian Air Force failed to provide documentation to justify their presence at an air base near the capital, N’Djamena.
To the east, Camp Lemonnier, a 5,000-man US military base strategically located in Djibouti, monitors the Red Sea and the Houthi rebels in Yemen and the al-Shabaab group in Somalia. The US also trains Kenyan troops to attack al-Shabaab from several bases, including Camp Simba in Kenya’s coastal Lamu region.
The al-Qaeda-linked Jamaat Nusrat al-Islam ur-Muslimin (JNIM), the Islamic State’s Daejahara branch, and the Islamic State West Africa Province are seen as the greatest threats to local forces and foreign partners like the United States in West Africa’s landlocked Sahel region. Preventing these groups from expanding into coastal neighbors is a key U.S. foreign policy priority.
Experts say the U.S. withdrawal from Niger highlights how Washington’s military influence – at least in West Africa – has diminished in recent years.
Much of this atrophy has been driven by worsening relations between leaders in Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger and former colonial power France.
In the three conflict-affected countries, anti-French sentiment has been surfacing for at least five years, and many question why the thousands of French and other foreign troops deployed to the region since 2013 to curb armed groups have failed to stop armed attacks and mass migration.
When the military took power in a series of coups in Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea, Gabon, Chad and Niger from 2020 onwards, they exploited such sentiments to gain support. By December 2023, more than 15,000 French, EU and UN troops had withdrawn from Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger. The three countries then joined the Association of Sahel States (AES), which was established in September 2023.
Russia moved quickly to fill the gap, bolstering local forces by deploying hundreds of Wagner Group fighter jets (now called the Africa Corps).
For the United States, the fall of Niger to the military in July 2023 was a pivotal moment. Under former President Mahamadou Issoufou (2011-2021), the country appeared to have left its history of coups behind and become relatively democratic and stable.
The US has invested heavily in building Base 101 in Niamey. The larger Base 201 in Agadez, 914 km (568 miles) from Niamey, is closer to the hotbed of violence between the three countries and cost $110 million to build. It is one of the most expensive US military bases anywhere. The two bases combined will house at least 900 soldiers and additional personnel, for a total of 1,100.
“They did a good job there,” said Ulf Laessing, a Sahel researcher at the Konrad-Adenauer Stiftung (KAS), a German think tank. Not only did the U.S. drones act as eyes to Niger’s military, relaying information about the locations of armed groups, but the Americans also trained Niger’s military.
But Laessing said transparency about the U.S. operation was problematic. Many aspects of the U.S. operation were largely unknown to local authorities and even U.S. lawmakers. Congress was shocked in October 2017 when four U.S. soldiers were killed in an ambush by the Islamic State group in the town of Tongo Tongo, Niger, during an offensive mission.
“The townspeople (in Agadesh) were very suspicious because they didn’t know what was going on. There wasn’t a lot of transparency about what was going on there,” Raessing added, referring to Base 201.
Observers and commentators are divided over how effective the overall U.S. operation was.
It is unclear whether U.S. drone surveillance has neutralized any specific militant group leaders, but Karr said the disappearance of U.S. drones appears to have had a negative impact since then.
“Attacks in Niger have become more deadly and more armed groups are involved.” He said this, referring to the period after the July coup when communications between U.S. and Nigerien forces began to break down. Until then, unlike neighboring countries, incursions by armed groups had been largely confined to a few areas, partly because of U.S. surveillance.
But some question whether the US military presence has actually been effective.
“If America’s air power was meant to support the pursuit of key targets, and taking them out didn’t fundamentally disrupt the insurgency, what good was all that surveillance?” Sahel expert Alex Thurston wrote in the US journal Responsible Statecraft in January.
Will it or will it die
For the U.S. military, it is important that its troops remain in the region, Karr said. The U.S. has bases only in Niger, but also has a presence in Ghana, Senegal and Gabon.
“If the U.S. were to leave, I think it would essentially send a message that the U.S. is a bad partner. And when countries are in trouble, they will partner with anyone, including Russia, and the U.S. certainly does not want that,” Carr added.
With the Russian-allied Association of Sahel States (AES) not an option for a base, neighboring countries Ghana, Benin, and Côte d’Ivoire are now the focus of U.S. diplomatic efforts. They are all relatively stable and civilian-led, and the U.S. already conducts joint military exercises with their militaries..
AFRICOM Commander Langley, who was part of the group that visited Benin and Côte d’Ivoire in April and May, said in a digital news briefing Thursday that the talks with governments were taking place and that the U.S. was “turning to like-minded nations … with shared values and common goals.”
Laessing said coastal states are more likely to accept Washington’s offer as they are increasingly vulnerable to armed groups. Benin, Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire have seen increased violence by armed groups along their northern borders. In May, Benin’s military said it neutralized eight armed fighters from an unidentified armed group in the northeastern town of Karimama, near Niger.
As the Wall Street Journal reported this week, U.S. aircraft and personnel are already being relocated to Benin. The Journal also reported that a U.S. Air Force base there is currently being converted to accommodate them.
In July, French newspaper Le Monde reported that the Ivorian government had approved a U.S. military base in the town of Odienne, in the country’s northwest. But details about the base’s plans were scarce.
Ghana already has the U.S. Army’s West Africa logistics network at Accra’s Kotoka International Airport, which some say is considered a base.
Protesters denounce the expansion of US military presence
In 2018, thousands took to the streets of the capital Accra after Congress signed a $20 million deal that gave the U.S. military access to Ghana’s radio waves and military airfields and allowed the import of military equipment tax-free. Protesters said U.S. troops caused “trouble” wherever they went, violence that could destabilize Ghana and a common image many West Africans have of U.S. military operations overseas.
That may be why U.S. officials are looking to overhaul their approach to Africa. General Langley said in a briefing Thursday that future operations will be “Africa-led, U.S.-supported.”
“…I listen, I learn, and then I come up with collaborative solutions that we can execute and move forward with,” he added.
Raising said the United States would try to keep a low profile in Niger, but was likely to face difficulties either way.
The still-existing anti-Western sentiment could further fuel the general resentment against the US presence, and it doesn’t help that the AES countries do not have friendly relations with many of their neighbors, as countries like Côte d’Ivoire are seen as French “puppets” in some parts of the region.
In July 2022, Mali detained 46 Iboir soldiers who had come there to work for a private Iboir company. Some were released in September.
“It’s going to be more complicated because it takes longer to get drones from (the coastal states) to hotbeds of violence,” Laessing said. “And they’re probably going to have to fly over Niger, which could be problematic for the government there and for Russia.”
