Pennsylvania has long been considered a key battleground in U.S. presidential elections. The state’s diverse electorate, with its mix of urban, suburban, and rural areas, often reflects broader national trends and has been a key target for both major political parties. Republicans are particularly focused on flipping Pennsylvania in the 2024 election because of its historical significance and potential turning point in securing the presidency.
In 2016, Pennsylvania was a cornerstone of Donald Trump’s victory, and for the first time since 1988, the state voted for a Republican in a presidential election. But in 2020, Joe Biden narrowly won Pennsylvania by just over 1 percentage point, demonstrating the state’s potential for swings. That narrow margin has further strengthened Republicans’ efforts to regain control, and they know that winning Pennsylvania could be decisive for the overall election outcome.
As part of that strategy, Republicans are focusing on areas where voter registration has grown, particularly Bucks County, which has historically leaned Democratic but is now showing signs of becoming more competitive. The gap between registered Democrats and Republicans in Bucks County has shrunk from more than 10,000 in 2020 to 281 as of July 2024, a microcosm of a broader realignment taking place statewide. Flipping Pennsylvania would be seen not only as a political victory, but also as a symbolic one that could energize the Republican base nationwide.
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Why Conservatives Are Focusing on Mail-in Voting
One of the most significant changes in the Pennsylvania Republican Party’s campaign strategy is its growing emphasis on mail-in voting. Traditionally, mail-in voting has been more common among Democrats, a trend that has been amplified in the 2020 elections due to the COVID-19 pandemic. But Republicans have recognized that if they want to remain competitive, especially in a critical state like Pennsylvania, they need to adapt and encourage voters to use mail-in voting.
The focus on mail-in voting is driven by several key factors. First, it provides a safety net to ensure voter participation, especially in states where weather, health, or other unforeseen circumstances could affect turnout on Election Day. By encouraging early voting via mail, Republicans can secure votes in advance, reducing the risk of last-minute chaos.
Second, Republicans learned that mail-in voting was crucial in swaying votes in favor of Joe Biden in the 2020 election. Republican leaders like Erie County GOP Chairman Tom Eddy have been active in changing the narrative about mail-in voting among their base. While skeptical at first, there have been efforts to emphasize the real benefits of mail-in voting, especially in ensuring that no Republican vote goes uncounted.
Voting by mail also allows for more efficient voter participation and follow-up. Campaigns can maximize voter turnout by tracking who has returned their ballots and focusing resources on mobilizing those who have not. This approach is especially important in Pennsylvania, where every vote can be crucial to the outcome.
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How Mail-In Voting Played a Role in the 2020 Election
The 2020 presidential election saw unprecedented use of mail-in voting, largely due to the pandemic but also due to changes in voter behavior. In Pennsylvania, mail-in voting was a game changer, especially for Democrats. Joe Biden’s victory in the state was largely supported by mail-in voting, which far outnumbered the votes cast for Donald Trump.
In Erie County, the state’s wind vane, the impact of mail-in voting was huge. Biden received more than three times as many mail-in votes as Trump, 9,279 to Trump’s. That margin was enough to overturn Trump’s 20,000-plus vote lead in person, giving Biden a narrow victory in the county and contributing to his overall victory in Pennsylvania.
The importance of mail-in voting in 2020 underscored the importance of early and absentee voting as strategic tools in modern elections. It showed that campaigns can no longer afford to focus solely on Election Day turnout, but must engage voters much earlier. Lessons learned from 2020 have shaped the strategies of both parties in the current election cycle, with Republicans now more aggressively encouraging voters to vote by mail.
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What is Pennsylvania Chase and Why Does It Matter in This Election?
Pennsylvania Chase is a grassroots initiative led by Cliff Maloney, a political strategist and former president of Young Americans for Liberty. Also known as PA Chase, the campaign aims to “track” GOP ballots by knocking on 500,000 doors across Pennsylvania, specifically to increase Republican turnout through mail-in voting.
This initiative is part of a broader effort to adapt to the changing dynamics of voter behavior and to secure the Republican vote well before Election Day. Pennsylvania Chase aims to build a direct connection with voters by focusing on door-to-door engagement, providing information on how to request and return a mail-in ballot, and addressing any concerns or misconceptions voters may have about the process.
The importance of the Pennsylvania Chase cannot be overstated. In a state where elections are often decided by extremely close margins, every vote counts. By increasing voter participation through mail-in voting, the Pennsylvania Chase hopes to prevent a repeat of the 2020 election, where Democrats’ advantage in early and absentee voting was a major factor in their victory.
Moreover, the initiative reflects a broader shift within the Republican Party that embraces mail-in voting as a critical component of its election strategy. It is a recognition that in order to compete in a hotly contested state like Pennsylvania, the GOP must meet voters where they are and provide them with the tools and information they need to fully participate in the election process.
In short, the focus on flipping Pennsylvania, the strategic shift to mail-in voting, and the grassroots efforts implemented by Chase in Pennsylvania all highlight the high stakes of the 2024 election. As Republicans work to retake this critical state, these efforts could play a decisive role in determining the outcome not only of Pennsylvania but of the entire presidential election.
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