Just 18 months ago, White House and Pentagon officials were debating the possibility that Russian forces in Ukraine would collapse and be pushed out of Ukraine altogether.
Now, after months of slow progress by Russia and technological leaps to counter U.S.-provided weapons, the Biden administration is gathering enough momentum to allow President Vladimir V. Putin to change the trajectory of the war and reverse his once bleak appearance. are increasingly concerned. View.
In recent days, Moscow’s forces have made fresh advances near Kharkiv, the country’s second-largest city, forcing Ukraine to spread out its already thin forces to defend areas it retook from Russian forces in a surprising victory last fall. 2022.
Artillery and drones provided by the United States and NATO were suppressed with Russian electronic warfare technology, which was introduced late into the battlefield but proved surprisingly effective. And there was a months-long debate in Washington over whether to send a $61 billion package of arms and ammunition to Ukraine, an opportunity that Russia clearly took advantage of, even though Congress ultimately passed the bill.
In interviews, U.S. officials said they were confident many of Russia’s gains could be reversed once the new arsenal was fully unlocked (possibly in July), and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said he would put more and younger troops on the front lines. Find a way. contour. But they are reluctant to make predictions about what the front will look like even months from now, or whether Mr. Zelenskyy will be able to launch a long-delayed counteroffensive next year after last spring fizzled.
U.S. and allied officials interviewed for this story spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss intelligence reports and sensitive battlefield assessments. However, some concerns emerged through public comments.
Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken understated on Sunday that “there is no doubt that there has been a price” for the long delays in sending the weapons. “We’re doing everything we can to expedite aid,” he insisted on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” But U.S. officials say President Biden continues to reject French President Emmanuel Macron’s suggestion that Western troops need to be deployed in Ukraine. Prime Minister Macron’s office recently said he “fully supports this.”
Privately, some of President Biden’s advisers are concerned that just as the United States has learned important lessons about what technologies work and what doesn’t work in war, so has President Putin. And their biggest concern is that as Russia replaces the weapons wiped out in the first 27 months of the war, Putin will also regain ground, just as President Biden prepares to meet his closest allies at the G7 meeting in Italy next month. The point is that you can. It is unclear whether President Biden will be able to repeat his assertion in Finland last summer that Putin “already lost the war.”
Some veterans of Putin’s serial confrontations are not at all surprised by this turn of events.
“Russia often starts wars poorly and ends them strong,” Stephen J. Hadley, national security adviser to President George W. Bush, told a Harvard conference Friday. Now, he said, Russia has brought with it a “massive” presence, a much larger population and “huge military infrastructure” to attract troops for a return.
As Mr. Hadley suggests, there is only one reason why Moscow could have the upper hand on the battlefield. Instead, several factors are aiding Russia’s military progress.
Delays in U.S. funding allowed Russia to gain a huge artillery advantage over Ukraine. Due to a lack of anti-aircraft munitions, Russia was able to use its air power without further damage, attacking Ukrainian lines with glide bombs. Using more air defense munitions could allow Ukraine to push those aircraft further, making it more difficult for Russia to strike from the air.
The delay in U.S. supplies is similar to Ukraine’s long delay in approving a mobilization law to infuse more, younger soldiers into its military. Ukraine is experiencing a severe shortage of soldiers and is struggling to provide adequate training for those entering its armed forces.
But not all of Russia’s advantages will last indefinitely, and the Russian military is likely to press on this summer, said Michael Kaufman, a Russia expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington.
“In 2024, the Russian military enjoys a material advantage and strategic initiative, although it is not decisive,” Mr. Koffman said. “This year represents a window of opportunity for Russia. “However, if the Russians are unable to translate these advantages into battlefield gains and generate momentum, this window will likely begin to close as we enter 2025.”
Russia’s new momentum, temporary or not, was most evident at Kharkiv, one of the largest tank battles of World War II. By 2022, it had become a center of fighting in the first year of the war, with the city being bombarded by advancing Russian forces.
In a surprise counteroffensive that fall, Ukrainian forces blocked the road to the city, drove Russian forces from the area, and reclaimed vast swaths of land. The humiliation of the Russians there and in the southern city of Kherson was so widespread that it became one of the greatest fears of the conflict. In other words, the Russians would use battlefield nuclear weapons against the Ukrainian military as a last resort. .
Since then, Ukraine has been able to use the reclaimed territory near Kharkiv to launch harassing attacks against Russia. These attacks have led Russia to reclaim territory in recent weeks to create a buffer zone. Putin said Ukraine would make cross-border attacks more difficult. Ukraine’s military intelligence chief recently said Russia’s advance near Kharkiv was “significant.”
Some outside experts warn that Russia’s real strategic goal in seizing the territory around Kharkiv is to force Ukrainian troops to move to reinforce the city, thereby weakening their front lines elsewhere. This could be another opportunity for Russian aggression in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region, which the Kremlin illegally annexed in June and is seeking to occupy.
“The goal of the Russian attack is to draw in Ukrainian reserves and elite units and then tie them down to Kharkiv and weaken the rest of the front,” Mr. Koffman said. “Russia’s main goal remains to retake the rest of Donbas.”
Whether they can do so will depend in part on how successful Mr. Zelensky is in his efforts to find new troops to relieve his exhausted and often demoralized troops. He moved the age of Ukrainians eligible for conscription from 27 to 25, despite considerable opposition from the Ukrainian public.
The United States is also seeking to strengthen its technical advice to Kiev to counter Russian technological advances. In some cases, Russia successfully tricked GPS receivers into targeting Ukrainian weapons, including various missiles fired from HIMARS launchers that President Biden began providing to Ukraine last year.
Although these launchers are rare, the Russians have been more successful in tracking their movements and, in some cases, destroying them, even if they are well camouflaged.
Of course, these battlefield advantages are temporary, and the war may look different 18 months from now than it did 18 months ago. But there is growing recognition within the Biden administration that the next few months could turn out to be critical. Because at some point, the two sides may finally negotiate a ceasefire. 1953 — or simply frozen conflict.
