Who are the best teams in the SEC?
After Week 11, a credible case can be made for few teams. No. 16 Ole Miss is ranked no. No. 11 Alabama in Oxford time before playing. 3 Georgia, 28-10, and easily fell to no. 15 LSU was dispatched 42-13. .
You may remember that Georgia beat Texas on the road earlier this season. Alabama beat Georgia. And Ole Miss now has a win over Georgia but losses to Kentucky and LSU.
The top of the SEC is a mess. The conference title race can be really, really tricky. And this will have implications for the College Football Playoff as well. In the first rankings release Tuesday, four SEC teams were included in the projected playoff bracket.
After this weekend, there’s a plausible scenario where either Texas or Texas A&M finishes the regular season at 7-1 in the conference, with up to seven teams tied for second at 6-2.
As you can imagine, there is no real way to resolve a six- or seven-way tie. This is especially true in conferences that don’t have divisions and are too big for all the teams to play each other. The 16-team SEC could show us this season what tiebreaker life looks like in the era of college football with large conferences.
Do you have any questions? The SEC’s winner-determination rules consist of six steps. The first tiebreaker is the head-to-head record, and the second tiebreaker is the team record against a common opponent. A second tiebreaker would probably be enough to break the tie. But otherwise, the most common record against a conference opponent or opponent is a third tiebreaker, and the best winning percentage against a conference opponent is fourth.
The fourth tiebreaker could also end up being crucial.
So how could this scenario work? Let’s lay it out for you.
LSU (6-3 overall, 3-2 SEC)
The Tigers need to win all three of these games and will win them all. There is a very good chance that they will win. Florida dropped to 4-5 on the season with a landslide win over Texas on Saturday. Vanderbilt lost to South Carolina on Saturday and Oklahoma lost a rough game to Missouri.
Missouri (7-2, 3-2)
The Tigers won 30-23 in a rough fourth quarter against Oklahoma on Saturday. Each team had a fumble return for a touchdown in the final two minutes of the game, and Missouri DL Zion Young’s fumble recovery with 22 seconds left provided the winning margin.
Mizzou will be the underdog in South Carolina and will need to start QB Brady Cook back on the field to have any chance in that game. The other two are very winnable. Like LSU, Mizzou needs three wins in the next three weeks.
Alabama (7-2, 4-2)
The Crimson Tide will be heavy favorites in both of these games. Oklahoma and Auburn’s combined SEC record is 2-10. We can easily move ahead of Alabama at 6-2 in the conference with two wins.
Ole Miss (8-2, 4-2)
The Rebels earned their biggest win of the Lane Kiffin era on Saturday against the Bulldogs. And they, too, will be heavy favorites in the final two weeks of the season after their Week 12 bye. It would be surprising if Ole Miss wasn’t 6-2 in the conference.
Georgia (7-2, 5-2)
The Bulldogs are one of two teams in the SEC with just one conference game remaining. A win over Tennessee in Week 12 would put Georgia at 6-2 and the first team to watch the conference race play out over the final two weeks of the season.
Texas (8-1, 4-1)
The Longhorns will be heavy favorites in the first two games before a winner-takes-all matchup against Texas A&M in the final week of the season. If Texas and Texas A&M both enter the final week of the season at 6-1 in the conference, the winner is guaranteed a berth in the SEC title game.
Texas A&M (7-2, 5-1)
The Aggies and Longhorns will play for the first time since Texas A&M was in the Big 12 in 2011. Texas A&M left the game Saturday before its Week 12 game against New Mexico State and will be favored against Auburn. .
Tennessee (8-1, 5-1)
Tennessee’s scenario is also simple. If the Vols win both games, they will likely advance to the SEC title game against the winner of Texas and Texas A&M. If they lose one, the tiebreaker chaos scenario described above could come into full effect. And if you’re not a Tennessee fan, you don’t want confusion, do you?
A factor complicating Tennessee’s path to an SEC title could be the health of QB Nico Iamaleava. He left the school’s game against Mississippi State at halftime on Saturday due to an upper-body injury, but coach Josh Heupel said after the game that Iamalaba’s absence was a precautionary measure.
Here are the rest of this week’s winners and losers:
winner
UCLA: The Bruins are on a three-game winning streak after defeating Iowa 20-17. UCLA has dropped five straight games since opening the season in Hawaii and now has a chance to secure bowl eligibility with three games remaining. Friday night’s win was ugly. Each team turned the ball over three or more times and UCLA had nine penalties compared to Iowa’s two. But the Bruins rushed for 211 yards and Ethan Garbers threw two TDs.
knife: The Bears earned their first ACC win with a 46-36 win over Wake Forest on Friday night. Fernando Mendoza threw for 385 yards and two scores and rushed 10 times for 51 yards and a TD. The Golden Bears are 5-4 after a four-game losing streak midseason and should earn bowl eligibility with a home game against Stanford remaining on the schedule.
Jacksonville State: The Gamecocks avoided disaster on Saturday. Jacksonville State trailed by six points to Louisiana Tech late in the fourth quarter and hit a 49-yard Hail Mary as time expired when Tyler Huff found Cam Vaughn in the end zone. JSU is ready for a complete win, right? no. A missed PAT sent the game into overtime. Tre Stewart’s 11-yard TD run in OT ended up being the game-winning score as Louisiana Tech failed to gain possession.
Georgia Tech: The Yellow Jackets are in back-to-back bowl games for the first time in a decade after a 28-23 comeback win over Miami. The win moved Georgia Tech to 6-4 as the Yellow Jackets used their run game to great effect against the Hurricanes. Miami failed to convert its first three fourth-down attempts and its defense also got a big boost when Cam Ward was knocked out with less than two minutes left.
loser
Iowa State: No. 17 The Cyclones went from undefeated atop the Big 12 to needing help to make it to the Big 12 title game after two weeks. A week after losing to Texas Tech at home, Iowa State lost 45-36 at Kansas on Saturday. Iowa State’s defense gave up 532 yards to the Jayhawks as Jalon Daniels looked like a 2022 player. ISU has games remaining against Cincinnati, Utah and Kansas State. The game against the Wildcats could mean a lot, but Colorado needs to lose because it matters.
feet: The No. 18 Panthers likely lost the ACC title with a 24-19 loss at home to Virginia on Saturday night. The Cavaliers scored 14 straight points in the third quarter to take the lead and hold on for the rest of the game. Pitt QB Eli Holstein had to leave the game in the third quarter due to an injury, and his replacement, Nate Yarnell, threw two interceptions in the second half as he was just 4-of-12 for 44 yards.
Cincinnati: The Bearcats are also on a two-game losing streak after losing 31-24 to West Virginia. QB Brendan Sorsby threw an interception and fumbled twice as the Bearcats allowed 17 points in the second quarter. After a terrible first season in the Big 12, Cincinnati is firmly in the middle of the conference and needs just one win to make a bowl game. However, the final three games of the season are against Iowa State, Kansas State, and TCU.
Oregon: Life in the interim Pac-12 is much better at Washington State than at Oregon State. The Beavers fell to 4-5 overall after losing 24-13 at home to San Jose State on Saturday. SJSU QB Walker Eget threw for 395 yards on 18-of-35 passing. Nick Nash had six catches for 161 yards and Justin Lockhart had five catches for 128 yards. It’s fair to say that Oregon State needs to beat the Spartans to have a realistic chance at a bowl game. The Beavers have Air Force, Washington State and Boise State remaining on their schedule. They will be the underdogs in their last two matchups.
