College Football Playoff Bracket Predictions: National Championship Picks from The Athletic

Who will win the first 12-team College Football Playoff? In a survey of 30 college football writers and editors, six teams received at least one vote. athleticIt is a big change compared to the 10 years of postseason tournaments where only four teams participated.

Oregon State received the majority of the votes, but a lot of diversity was on display as our staff drew up the bracket ahead of Indiana’s first round opening Friday night at Notre Dame. In fact, even 12th seed Clemson, which has three losses, received a national championship vote.

Here’s who we picked and how their predictions compare to Austin Mock’s prediction model.

deeper

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first round

Not surprisingly, the consensus of our 30 voters is a blank slate.

According to BetMGM, the better seed is favored by receiving at least 7.5 points in all first-round games. Mock’s projections give each favorite at least a 65% chance of winning, and the closest staff vote is Tennessee getting 11 votes to win in Ohio State, a matchup that undoubtedly presents a challenge to the Buckeyes. Lost to Michigan.

quarterfinal

Oregon was held to a tough draw despite being the only undefeated team in the country. It will head to the Rose Bowl to face the winner of Ohio State-Tennessee. Mock’s model gives the Ducks just a 53% chance of passing. It will be a rematch for Ohio State, as Oregon beat the Buckeyes 32-31 in a thriller in Eugene in October.

Despite this, 25 out of 30 voters chose Oregon to win the Rose Bowl. This compares to just five in Ohio and zero in Tennessee. Everyone who picked the Buckeyes to beat Oregon also picked the Buckeyes to win the national title.

Arizona State finished fourth as the Big 12 champion but ranked 12th in the CFP Top 25. That puts it nine spots behind Texas and four spots ahead of Clemson. Texas is the overwhelming favorite to beat Clemson, get past the Sun Devils in the Peach Bowl and advance to the state semifinals in the Cotton Bowl, with only four picking Arizona State and two picking Clemson.

Only three out of 30 voters chose Indiana to beat Notre Dame, and none picked Indiana to beat Georgia after the Hoosiers pulled off two upsets. The staff is divided over a potential Georgia-Notre Dame Sugar Bowl. But of the 27 who picked Notre Dame to beat Indiana, 14 had the Fighting Irish knocking off the Bulldogs.

This is the least chalky part of the bracket. Most voters like Penn State beating SMU at home, but our staff likes Boise State to revive its Cinderella status on New Year’s Eve in the Fiesta Bowl. Historically, both the Nittany Lions (7-0) and Broncos (3-0) are undefeated in the Fiesta Bowl. Of the 22 voters here who chose Penn State to beat SMU, only half chose the Nittany Lions to beat Boise State. Overall, Boise State received 16 votes, compared to 12 for Penn State and 2 for SMU in the Fiesta Bowl.

Mock’s model disagrees, as Penn State beat both SMUs. and Boise State uses it 48% of the time.

semifinal

Whoever emerges from the Oregon-Ohio State-Tennessee trio could face a tough tie in the Cotton Bowl semifinals against Texas closer to home. Still, two-thirds of our staff would like Oregon to win the Cotton Bowl, just five picked Ohio State, four picked Texas and one said 12th seed Clemson makes a surprise appearance in the national title game. I did it.

According to Mock’s model, Georgia, Penn State, and Notre Dame all have a 20-29% chance of making the national title game, but our guys mostly rallied around Georgia or Notre Dame. Georgia received 15 votes in the Orange Bowl compared to Notre Dame’s 12 votes, Penn State’s just 2 votes and Boise State’s 1 vote.

national championship

Going undefeated is difficult, but 17 out of 30 voters believe Oregon can achieve a 15-0 record to become the first new national champion since Florida in 1996. This is a huge improvement over the Ducks, who received 10.7% of the preseason polls. Mid-season voter turnout was 6.7%.

The teams polled in the preseason to win the national title are Ohio State (57.1%), Georgia (28.6%), Oregon State (10.7%) and Alabama (3.6%). By mid-season, that number had grown to five. Texas (50%), Ohio State (36.7%), Oregon (6.7%), Georgia (3.3%), and Clemson (3.3%).

The field of possible national champions has now been narrowed to just 12, but six teams all received at least one vote to win. Below are examples from each of the six teams.

Oregon: Every other team has weaknesses that surface at some point. The teams that pose the biggest threats to Oregon – Ohio State, Texas and Georgia – looked vulnerable the last time they were on the field. Oregon’s defense showed some cracks against Penn State, but the Ducks showed they can win a shootout if necessary. And Dillon Gabriel is the quarterback I want if I could pick a playoff QB to lead a deep run. — Austin Meek

deeper

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Ohio State: Ohio State had a terrible game plan against Michigan, and it cost the Buckeyes dearly. I expect Ohio State to play much looser and place a premium on getting the nation’s best skill position players in the right positions and maximizing potential mismatches. — Scott Dotterman

deeper

Will Howard realizes the final chapter of his time at Ohio State has yet to be written.

Texas: The Longhorns have one of the best and deepest rosters. Despite all the attention on the quarterback and the offensive-minded Texas coach, it’s the defense that has held the Longhorns back. They allow just one point per drive, the lowest in the FBS. And once the offense starts, it becomes difficult to beat Texas. — Sam Caan Jr.

deeper

Texas will go as far as Quinn Ewers wants, for better or worse.

Georgia: Georgia is talented, extremely battle-tested (6 games vs. a top 16 team), and most importantly, may be the healthiest it is all season outside of quarterback Carson Beck. Additionally, the title game will be held in Atlanta. — Stuart Mandel

deeper

Everyone’s backup QB comes to Georgia’s rescue. It’s not a loss.

Our Lady: Notre Dame’s defense will get the job done. I really like how this team responded to the loss to Northern Illinois, and I think that will carry over into the playoffs. The Irish were forced out after that defeat and Marcus Freeman’s group showed impressive determination to overcome it. —Daniel Shirley

deeper

How Notre Dame maintained playoff expectations after its worst loss of the season.

Clemson: Quinn Ewers hasn’t looked 100% since September. Arizona State will have to fly to Atlanta for the quarterfinals, and the winner of the Rose Bowl could play in the semifinals. A decade of CFP history has taught me that if something good can happen to Clemson in late December, it usually will. Cade Klubnik has been clutch enough, Bryant Wesco Jr. is on the same late-season trajectory as Justyn Ross, and it’s hard not to assume that Dabo Swinney has the perfect mindset for tournament football. — Eric Single

deeper

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So what matchups will we see at the national championship in Atlanta on January 20th?

Stewart Mandel evaluated all 36 possibilities after the brackets were released. Thirty voters put up eight matchups, with No. 1 Oregon versus No. 2 Georgia being the most common, with a one-third turnout. Of the 30, 27 took on at least one of Oregon, Ohio or Georgia, and two of them chose to meet Texas and Georgia for the third time this season.

Special thanks to one voter who chose the confusing choice of Clemson vs. Boise State.

(Jalon Walker and Dillon Gabriel Photo by Tim Warner, Ali Gradischer / Getty Images)