After more than four weeks and nearly two dozen witnesses, former President Donald Trump’s hush trial is now entering its final stages.
Prosecutors and Trump’s defense team are scheduled to make closing arguments beginning Tuesday morning in a New York courtroom that has hosted a series of heated exchanges and memorable moments since testimony began in late April.
The jury must then deliberate and reach a verdict just months before going to the polls in what is expected to be a tight November election between Republican Trump and his Democratic rival, President Joe Biden.
Trump, who faces 34 felony charges of falsifying business documents related to paying hush money to an adult film star before the 2016 presidential election, has pleaded not guilty.
Here’s everything you need to know about the historic case, the first criminal trial against a former U.S. president, and what’s ahead.
What’s happening in Trump’s hush trial this week?
Prosecutors and defense attorneys will have one final opportunity to address the jury in closing arguments expected to last all Tuesday.
Arguments serve as an hour-long summary of the key points each side wants to make before jurors begin deliberations.
The defense team goes first, and the prosecution follows.
What arguments will both sides make?
Prosecutors have argued throughout the trial that Trump engaged in a hush-money scheme to suppress bad press that could harm his chances of winning the 2016 election.
They showed jurors financial statements and questioned several witnesses, including adult film star Stormy Daniels, whose alleged affair with Trump is at the center of the case. Trump has denied there was any sexual contact.
The prosecution’s star witness and former Trump lawyer Michael Cohen also Former President Lee testified that he was directly involved in the plan and approved the payment.
The defense tried to discredit the witnesses, including portraying Cohen as a serial liar. Cohen pleaded guilty in 2018 to federal charges related to hush money payments and lying to the U.S. Congress.
But this week, Trump’s team doesn’t have to prove anything or convince jurors of his innocence.
To prevent a conviction, prosecutors must convince at least one of the 12 jurors that they failed to prove Trump’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.
The defense could also make a final argument that when it came to hush money, President Trump was most interested in protecting his family from salacious stories, not winning the election.
What should the jury decide?
Although the courtroom drama dominated media coverage of the trial, the case boils down to whether Trump intentionally covered up $130,000 for Daniels’ silence to prevent her claim from derailing her 2016 White House bid.
The jury will have to decide not only whether Trump falsified payment records, but also whether he did so to conceal other crimes, in this case unreported campaign donations. Both findings would make the criminal charges felonies under New York State law.
In an interview with Al Jazeera early in the trial, Gregory Germain, a law professor at Syracuse University in upstate New York, summarized the “two essential elements” of the indictment: “Where is the fraud and where is the (secondary) crime?” ?”
After both sides complete their closing arguments, Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case, will give jurors lengthy instructions on how to interpret the law and evidence during deliberations. This could happen as early as Wednesday.
How do jury deliberations work?
Deliberations take place in secret, in a deliberately opaque process, in rooms specifically set up for jurors.
During deliberations, jurors will have access to all evidence and can ask questions to the judge, who will discuss them with prosecutors and defense attorneys before deciding how to answer.
There is no limit to how long a jury can deliberate. Jurors must evaluate 34 counts of falsified business records, so it could take some time and a verdict may not be reached until the end of the week.
To find guilty or not guilty, all 12 jurors must agree with the judge’s decision. If the jury cannot reach a unanimous verdict, there will be a deadlock and Merchan will rule on a mistrial.
Once the jurors have informed the court that they have reached a decision, Merchan will summon the parties to the courtroom and read the jury foreman’s decision. Merchan still has to confirm the ruling and make a final ruling. Either way, he could be asked to effectively dismiss the jury.
What happens if Trump is found guilty?
If Trump is found guilty, it will likely be weeks or months before he is sentenced.
As a first-time offender of a non-violent crime, the former president and the Republican Party’s presumptive 2024 presidential candidate will likely be released on bail in the meantime.
The maximum penalty for President Trump’s crime of falsifying business records is up to four years in prison. But experts said that while a prison sentence is possible, fines, probation and community service are all much more likely options.
Will a conviction affect Trump’s chances of being elected?
It’s unclear.
An ABC News/Ipsos poll from early May found that an overwhelming share of Trump supporters (80%) said they would support the former president in November even if he were convicted of a felony.
However, 16% of respondents said they would reconsider their support if found guilty, and 4% said they would withdraw it.
Another poll released by Quinnipiac University last week found that 6% of Trump voters said they would be less likely to vote for him if he were convicted, while 24% said they would be more likely to vote for him. and 68% said they would do so. It doesn’t affect their choices.
The percentage of voters who say they would abandon Trump if he is convicted is low, but that could nonetheless prove important in the tight race between Trump and Biden.
“Will a conviction sink Trump? Many of his supporters say it won’t be a big deal. But in a very tight race, that 6% can tip the balance,” said Tim Malloy, a Quinnipiac University polling analyst.
