The gaming industry will only be able to support two successful gaming consoles on next-gen hardware, according to a new report, and one of them will ‘definitely’ be Nintendo.
Market research firm DFC Intelligence released its annual market report and forecasts this week. The report predicts significant revenue growth in the second half of 2010, while also projecting significant risks for one in three existing console manufacturers.
DFC predicts that the gaming industry will enjoy record growth in 2025 after a period of decline following the Covid-19 pandemic, thanks to new hardware from Nintendo and major launches such as GTA6.
The company predicts that the number of people playing video games worldwide will exceed 4 billion by 2027. This represents almost half of the world’s population. This predicts Nintendo will be the “clear winner” in the next-gen consoles due to its early launch and limited competition.
However, DFC predicts that only Sony and Microsoft will be able to successfully compete with Nintendo once new consoles are released by 2028.
“There’s no room for more than two major console systems,” he says. “There will be stiff competition between Sony and Microsoft for third place. It will largely depend on which of these companies can gain initial momentum.”
DFC said it believes it’s too early to know which of the Xbox and PlayStation will be released next generation, and that price point, release date, and other basic features like portability will be taken into consideration.
“The new Sony system (PlayStation 6?) should have an advantage because of its loyal base and strong Sony IP,” he said, noting that Microsoft will enter the next console as the largest game publisher.
“Microsoft failed with Xbox Series Microsoft has the option to focus on software and deployment models rather than hardware.”
DFC Intelligence Founder and CEO David Cole said in a statement: “Over the past 30 years, the video game industry has grown more than 20-fold, and after two years of sluggish hardware and software sales, it is poised to resume growth at a healthy pace through: End of 10 years.
“While 2025 will be the start of an upward trajectory, some big questions remain, including who will lose the next-gen console war and who will win the game software distribution war. And as large publishers continue to focus on live services around popular franchises, there will be plenty of opportunities for smaller studios as well.”
Nintendo has yet to officially reveal the Switch sequel, but the company has confirmed plans to reveal it during the current fiscal year, which ends in March 2025.