China’s Dangerous Power Exercise in the South China Sea

Chinese coast guard ships swarmed and collided with Philippine boats. They slammed the Philippine ships with powerful water cannons. Chinese sailors slashed their inflatable boats, blew their sirens, and turned on high-powered lasers at the Philippine troops.

As China seeks to dominate the South China Sea, it is increasingly willing to use force to dislodge its treaty ally, the Philippines. In recent months, Chinese tactics have damaged Philippine ships and injured personnel, raising fears of a superpower confrontation in the strategic waterway.

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The latest target of China’s power play over the past few months has been the Philippine Coast Guard vessel Teresa Magbanua. The footage above was taken by the vessel’s crew after it was rammed by a Chinese Coast Guard vessel late last month.

The incident was one of four collisions between vessels from the two countries in just two weeks. Not only were the collisions becoming more frequent, they were also occurring in a new location: Sabina Shoal, a resource-rich atoll close to the Philippine mainland.

The two countries had met months ago near Second Thomas Reef, another disputed atoll in the Spratly Islands, where Chinese vessels regularly harassed Filipino ships trying to resupply crews stationed at a stranded warship. Now their feud has escalated.

The Philippines wants to control Sabina Shoal, an uninhabited atoll within its exclusive economic zone. Located 86 miles west of the Philippine province of Palawan and more than 600 miles from China, Sabina Shoal is close to oil-rich areas and a route that Manila considers important for trade and security.

“A hostile China could disrupt maritime trade with the rest of Asia and much of the world from Sabina Shoal,” said Jay Batongbacal, a maritime security expert at the University of the Philippines. Sabina Shoal, he said, “would be a good staging area for vessels that would interfere with Philippine maritime activities.”

Manila anchored one of its largest coast guard ships, the Teresa Magbanua, at Sabina Reef in April as the Philippines sought to thwart attempts by China to build an island there.

The Philippine Coast Guard has pointed to piles of broken and dead coral that appear to have been dumped on the reef as signs of Chinese reclamation. China denies the accusations. But building and fortifying artificial islands is a key part of China’s claim to the disputed waters hundreds of miles off its coast.

China, which claims almost all of the South China Sea, says the strategy is necessary to defend its sovereignty. Beijing rejected a 2016 ruling by an international tribunal that found China’s extensive maritime claims had no legal basis.

China has accused the Philippines of trying to permanently occupy Sabina Shoal by anchoring its coast guard vessels there, just as it did its warships at Second Thomas Shoal. Beijing has even sent tugboats to Sabina Shoal, which some have interpreted as a threat to tow away Philippine ships.

China has not used guns. Instead, it has used aggressive moves that fall short of inciting a full-scale war, what military theorists call gray zone tactics. These include imposing blockades, firing water cannons, and sailing dangerously close.

But these moves can still cause damage. For example, a recent collision between Chinese and Philippine vessels left a three-foot hole in the Teresa Magbanua and another Philippine vessel.

“If the Philippines insists on seizing more reefs, China will have no choice but to use all means at its disposal,” said Candidate, director of the South China Sea Strategic Situation Exploration Initiative, a Beijing-based research group. “There are no limits.”

On Sunday, after months of pressure from China, the Philippines said the Teresa Magbanua had returned to a Palawan port. A Philippine statement said the move was in response to the ship’s mission being completed.

But he acknowledged the crew were struggling to survive as the Chinese blockade prevented their ships from being resupplied, saying they were “surviving on meager rations each day” and some needed medical assistance.

The Philippines said the ship suffered structural damage after being rammed by a Chinese coast guard vessel but would return after repairs.

Tensions are rising

President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. of the Philippines took a tougher approach toward China than his predecessors, strengthening the alliance with the United States and inviting journalists to join resupply missions to highlight Chinese actions at sea.

China has called the United States “the biggest troublemaker in fomenting instability in the South China Sea.” Hu, a Beijing expert, said China had been forced to adopt more hard-line tactics because diplomacy with the Marcos administration had failed.

As both sides become more stubborn, the frequency and aggression of their fights are increasing.

In one clash in June, Chinese coast guardsmen used axes, tear gas and knives to harass Philippine troops on a resupply mission to Second Thomas Reef. Chinese sailors blasted holes in Philippine warships and seized equipment, including guns.

Eight Philippine soldiers were wounded, one of whom lost a finger, in what the Philippine military called the “most aggressive” Chinese action in recent history.

The June 17 incident made it clear that tensions needed to be eased. The two sides reached an “interim agreement” on Second Thomas Reef, allowing the Philippines to conduct a resupply mission in late July. But officials from both countries disputed the details of the agreement and questioned how long it would last.

“China’s overarching strategy is to dominate the South China Sea. We should not expect a sustained easing of tensions,” said Rommel Ong, a professor at the Ateneo School of Government in Manila and a retired rear admiral in the Philippine Navy. “If that goal is not achieved, coercive actions will increase or decrease depending on the situation.”

Since October, the Chinese coast guard has used water cannons against Philippine vessels with greater regularity than ever before in the long-running dispute. Clashes have also become more common.

Whenever the Philippines attempted to sail to the disputed atoll, it was quickly met by Chinese coast guard, maritime militia and navy vessels.

Some of the Chinese ships follow the Philippine ships. Others cross their path. The ships crowd around the Philippine ships, forming a tight blockade.

China, the world’s largest navy by number of ships, has deployed more ships to the disputed waters over the past year than ever before. The Philippines sends an average of a few ships on resupply missions, which has remained largely unchanged.

Hu, a China expert, said China’s show of force in numbers is intended to deter the Philippines without resorting to lethal force. “If China sends only a few boats to stop the Philippines, they may have to use guns,” he said.

During the week of August 27 to September 2, the Philippine military tracked 203 Chinese vessels in disputed areas of the South China Sea, the highest number recorded this year.

Tensions have been rising at a time when the Chinese and U.S. militaries have had limited contact. On Tuesday, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command commander held a rare video conference with General Wu Yanan, the commander of the People’s Liberation Army’s Southern Theater, which oversees the South China Sea. The U.S. said the call “helps reduce the risk of misunderstanding or miscalculation.”

During the call, Admiral Samuel Paparo urged China to “reconsider its use of dangerous, coercive and potentially escalating tactics” in the South China Sea. China’s own statement on the call said only that the two sides had an in-depth exchange of views.

But on Thursday, Lieutenant General He Lei, a former vice president of the Academy of Military Science of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army, took a more hardline stance.

“If the United States insists on being a cabal to put others on the front lines to confront China, or if it is forced to challenge us on its own, the Chinese people and the People’s Liberation Army will never waver,” he told reporters at a security forum in Beijing.