We have six UEFA Champions League games ahead of us, with two more games in the league stage before the knockout stages. The field is still relatively open, but teams are now starting to reserve spots in the later rounds. But no team is completely certain of advancing to the round of 16 ahead of schedule in midweek. Leaders Liverpool are the most likely and already guaranteed a knockout spot, but despite holding a significant lead over everyone else, they are yet to secure more than a play-off spot. Barcelona are also chasing, but there are currently more teams eliminated than qualified.
As Champions League action resumes for the final two rounds this week and next, let’s take a look at the action.
UCL top 8
Confirmed: None – not yet.
Liverpool were already guaranteed a top 24 place, at least a play-off spot, but now Arne Slot’s Premier League and Champions League leaders must be the first to confirm their place in the last 16. The Reds need just one more to see that status. They picked up points against Lille OSC and PSV Eindhoven and it’s hard to see the Merseysiders throwing things away in their last two games. Rather, they are more likely to finish the league phase with eight wins from eight games, given their impressive 100% win record so far, with a five-match unbeaten run against LOSC in the middle of the week.
UCL Playoffs (Top 24)
Confirmed: Liverpool and Barcelona.
Barcelona sit just below Liverpool, having won five of their opening six matches, and the Catalan giants are currently the favorites to either move ahead of Liverpool at the top of the table or reach the last 16 immediately. As of now, both teams have at least guaranteed a knockout stage appearance, although Arne Slot’s side are more likely to go straight into the round of 16 as they are two points ahead of Barca by three. Arsenal, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Inter, Stade Brestois 29 and Lille are also in the top eight with two games remaining, but none are yet capable of officially reaching the knockouts, despite most teams looking likely to do so. . Of them – if not all. Changing this would require a major change in results, but Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Atletico Madrid and Milan are close behind on 12 points, with Atalanta and Juventus on 11 points.
outsider
There are a few eliminated teams that are neither advanced nor eliminated, but close to the top eight. Benfica, Monaco, Sporting, Feyenoord and Club Brugge are all on 10 points. This means the next win. Any loss can have a huge impact. Real Madrid and Celtic are just one point behind the same record, but the other big names below the Scottish giants have probably snuck themselves into that conversation considering they have quite a bit of work ahead of them with two games remaining .
be in danger
Surprisingly, both Manchester City and Paris Saint-Germain are in this group, while PSV Eindhoven, Dinamo Zagreb and VfB Stuttgart are all hovering around the cut-off point with two games remaining. In a sweet twist, the French giants will face the Premier League champions and a Bundesliga side in the two final games. These two matches will undoubtedly have some of this year’s biggest names on the cards with the potential to stumble early. Both PSG and City can still avoid it, but both will be desperate to avoid having to wait until the final day to ensure a knockout spot by winning their second game when they meet at the Parc des Princes on Wednesday. .
scenario
- Round of 16: Liverpool needed more than a draw against Lille to secure a place in the top eight, while Barca’s win virtually secured them a place in the round of 16.
- Knockout Playoffs: Arsenal, Leverkusen, Villa, Inter, Brest and Lille are all confident of at least a place in the top 24, with a knockout spot within reach of at least a point by mid-week. But securing a top eight now requires a complex web of 10 results, as seen in the situation in Brest below.
- Brest can only make it into the top eight this week if: They beat Shakhtar, Liverpool beat Lille, Bologna beat Dortmund, Feyenoord beat Bayern, Leverkusen beat Atletico, Girona beat Milan, Atalanta beat Graz, Juventus drew with Brugge, Benfica didn’t beat Barca, Monaco didn’t win. Villa or Sparta beat Inter and Sporting failed to win against Leipzig.
- Removed: Bologna will be eliminated if they fail to win their remaining two games, and six points may not be enough if City, PSV and/or Dinamo pick up more than a point from their remaining two games. Salzburg, Red Star, Girona and Graz need only a win to complete their last leg. A draw would not be enough as they would be at least four points off the top 24. Sparta and Shakhtar still have a chance. If we get a draw this week, it will be our last game. But that would be the slimmest hope. PSG and Stuttgart will be officially eliminated until they play each other if they pick up more points this week, but a combined nine results elsewhere could spell doom for Paris if they lose at home to City.
- PSG can only leave if: Lost to City, Real beat Salzburg, Celtic beat Young Boys, Benfica lost to Barca, Monaco lost to Villa, Sporting lost to Leipzig, PSG beat Red Star, Feyenoord lost to Bayern and Brugge avoided defeat. vs. Bayern and Dinamo beat Arsenal.
long shot
Teams that could, at least mathematically, make it to the knockout stages but would need to get at least four points from their remaining two games include Shakhtar Donetsk, Sparta Prague, Sturm Graz, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Red Bull Salzburg and Bologna. Many of these teams are awaiting final confirmation of elimination despite some encouraging starts. However, at least for now, there is no 100% guarantee that we will not see the knockout stage, which is further evidence of the value that the adoption of this new league stage brings.
On my way home
Confirmed: RB Leipzig, Young Boys, Slovan Bratislava.
Red Bull’s flagship Leipzig were the first to be eliminated from this edition as Aston Villa confirmed their early exit with a home defeat in their sixth round match. Young Boys and Slovan Bratislava were the next two teams from Germany, although Salzburg are expected to follow soon after. All three eliminated teams have 0 points, with Bologna sitting on 2 points, so they are likely to be eliminated next. This means that only eight points can be scored by the end of league phase play, still two points short of the expected 10 points. Point barrier to reach knockout. Although it adds up mathematically right now, it seems unlikely that will remain the case for the Italians, who could argue that their fate is not in their hands even if they win both of their remaining games.
