NEW JERSEY, USA, Jan 10 (IPS) – India has emerged as the world’s fifth-largest economy and has now surpassed China to take the title as the most populous country. But this rapid rise is not without its challenges. Rising unemployment and rising inflation are expected to threaten the demographic dividend and the ambitious goal of maintaining 7-8% GDP growth.
According to projections, the population is expected to reach 1.7 billion by 2050, leading to intensifying problems such as employment inelasticity, rapidly rising poverty rates, urban congestion, environmental pollution, and natural resource depletion. This growing problem threatens to cause irreversible ecological damage, threatens the delicate balance of species and habitats, and has serious implications for public health and sustainability.
In this context, tackling sustainable development, especially amidst the aspirations of vibrant young people, is an urgent and difficult task. A powerful and cost-effective solution is to consciously reduce the human footprint. We urgently need to integrate population planning into climate change plans and the Sustainable Development Goals to create long-term policies that protect our planet.
This will require integrating population discussions into broader environmental strategies, empowering women through access to education and reproductive health services, and building collaborative networks between governments, NGOs and communities to deliver targeted initiatives in areas with high fertility rates. You have to start.
India’s demographic landscape is currently at a critical juncture, facing significant challenges in managing its rapidly growing population. Over the past 50 years, India’s population has nearly tripled, raising serious concerns about its future. With 18% of the world’s population concentrated in 2.4% of the country’s land area, accommodating further growth is an urgent and obvious challenge.
The issue has given rise to conflicting views in the country. While some clearly see the rise in the working-age population as a demographic dividend, others firmly see it as a potential crisis requiring immediate attention.
Current demographic trends in India demonstrate the urgency of requiring immediate action to address job creation issues. The unemployment rate is 8.5% and the poverty rate is 14.9% (MPI). There is a significant wealth gap, with the top 10% owning more than 60% of total wealth, while the bottom 50% are experiencing a decline in wealth.
The education system is under pressure, with more than 1.2 million children out of school by 2022-23 and struggling to accommodate a growing population. Urbanization is placing greater strain on infrastructure and essential services. Public health spending remains low at 2.1% of GDP, highlighting the need for universal health coverage. Population growth is putting enormous pressure on arable land, worsening land degradation and affecting the resource base.
Additionally, due to population growth and increased affluence, energy production and consumption are rapidly increasing, leading to air pollution and global warming. These environmental problems have serious impacts on public health and impede sustainable development.
Despite improvements in agricultural productivity through the Green Revolution, significant portions of the population still suffer from lack of access to adequate nutrition, highlighting the urgent need to address food sustainability. Growing human populations will continue to strain damaged ecosystems, reduce their resilience and increase the risk of infectious diseases, soil desertification and biodiversity loss.
India’s current demographic landscape, with a rapidly growing working-age population of 500 million, offers significant development potential in contrast to China’s declining population. However, India’s population growth may be hampered by its relatively small land area and low GDP compared to China.
While China’s one-child policy has promoted rapid economic growth, India’s birth rate is known to have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1. While some advocate population policies, others question the need for such measures, citing historical resistance to India’s coercive population policies of the 1980s.
Despite the growth rate of 7.2% in 2022-23 and the creation of 6 million jobs, the working population increased by 10 million, resulting in ‘jobless growth’. Although birth rates are declining, scientific models suggest that India’s population may not necessarily decline due to ‘population momentum’.
Historic efforts in the 1970s and 1980s to promote family planning through a variety of media and public outreach initially showed promise. However, the effectiveness of these plans has waned over time, and the problem of unchecked population growth remains a critical issue that needs to be addressed effectively.
The reluctance to address this issue is deeply rooted in political, religious and cultural concerns. Rapid economic growth and advances in science and technology have intensified human activities, making them difficult to control. Regulating population growth is critical to sustainable development, and historical evidence from the 1960s indicates that uncontrolled population growth leads to resource scarcity.
Failure to manage populations can undermine afforestation and infrastructure development efforts. Additionally, unchecked unemployment, especially among well-educated young men facing limited opportunities, has been linked to increases in political violence.
India has set an ambitious goal of achieving net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2070, even as its population is expected to surge by 2 billion. A 2024 UNDP survey found that 77% of Indian citizens advocate for stronger government climate action.
The I=PAT framework emphasizes that environmental impacts (I) are influenced by population size (P), level of abundance (A), and technology (T). India’s middle class currently accounts for 31% of the population, and is expected to increase to 38% in 2031 and 60% in 2047, leading to an increase in per capita consumption. It is important to remember that the only variable that can be directly managed is the human footprint (P).
Given the complex nature of the problem and the underlying social framework, focusing solely on persuading individuals to adopt less environmentally harmful behaviors may be ineffective and potentially counterproductive. It is essential to integrate population growth discussions into environmental conversations and remove stigma.
Governments, communities and individuals who advocate for positive action must collectively take on this responsibility. Our focus must be on modifying systems and structures to drive significant behavioral change at scale by encouraging communities to voluntarily abstain from childbirth for a year.
The government must prioritize overpopulated areas, especially those with high fertility rates in northern India, and urgently improve access to contraceptives and family planning services in these areas.
Kerala shows that birth rates are low in places where women have access to education, health care, and the ability to control the number of children they have. Women with higher levels of education tend to have fewer children, which means that gender equality has improved. Empowering women and actively involving them in decision-making can significantly reduce population growth, offering hope for a more sustainable future.
In conclusion, the interplay between population growth, environmental sustainability and public health in India presents complex challenges that require immediate and strategic action. To effectively solve this problem:
1). Integrating population discussions: Build forums and partnerships that bring together policymakers, environmentalists, and community leaders to integrate population growth into broader environmental strategies.
2). Empowering women: Invest in education programs and improve access to reproductive health services, especially in areas with high fertility rates, so women can make informed choices about their families.
3). Implement targeted initiatives: Develop and support government initiatives focused on reducing fertility in overpopulated areas while promoting sustainable practices at the community level.
4). Promote collaboration: Encourage partnerships between governments, NGOs and communities to promote conscientious living and embrace environmentally friendly practices.
Now is the time to act with purpose. The collective decisions made today will determine the quality of life for future generations. By adopting these recommendations, the country can create a legacy that ensures not only prosperity but also the well-being of all its citizens.
doctor. Sibu Thomas; MDS, MS is an independent global health and international security analyst based in New Jersey, USA. Alumnus of Seton Hall University’s Department of Diplomacy and International Relations, former Assistant Professor at Ajman University, UAE
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