ROME, Dec 9 2009 (IPS) – No one saw it coming. After years of brutal war in Syria, many believed the front lines had stabilized, leaving only the possibility of sporadic fighting or even negotiations.
Syria? Is there anything left to report? That question was answered loud and clear on November 27th.
While the whole world was turning a blind eye, the jihadist coalition supported by Turkey launched a surprise attack on Aleppo, Syria’s second largest city. Ten days later Damascus fell.
The swift attack by the Levant Liberation Organization (HTS), which the UN Security Council, the United States, Russia and Turkey have classified as a “terrorist organization,” had echoes of ISIS’s capture of Mosul, Iraq’s second-largest city, in 2014. Yes. The Taliban may take over Kabul in 2021.
In Syria, 50 years of Assad family rule have ended. Moscow confirmed on Sunday that the family is now in Russia, but the future of the country they left remains uncertain.
the road here
The war in Syria began in 2011 during the so-called “Arab Spring.” A wave of uprisings has swept the Middle East and North Africa, many of which have led to conflict.
Dissatisfaction with the Assad regime’s repressive and authoritarian rule since 1971 led to mass protests and a brutal crackdown.
In response, the opposition soon formed an armed group called the Free Syrian Army (FSA), a loosely organized coalition that included Islamist hardliners.
Over time, these hardliners, with logistical and military support from neighboring Turkey, took control of the rebellion and eventually consolidated their power in the northwestern region of Idlib.
Meanwhile, the Kurds have emerged as a third force in the conflict. With their vision rooted in human rights and a horizontally egalitarian society, they distanced themselves from the Islamist opposition and the Assad regime, which had treated them as second-class citizens for decades.
The Kurds, with support from the United Nations, dealt a decisive blow to ISIS. ISIS’ final stronghold fell in the spring of 2019, when it seized control of territory the size of Britain across Syria and Iraq.
By then, Syria was divided into three parts. Jihadists supported by Türkiye in the northwest and other border areas; In the northeast, the Kurds, where U.S. troops are stationed, and the Assad regime, backed by Russia and Iran, control the rest.
This fragile balance was broken on November 27th. The map of Syria has been redrawn.
The collapse of Assad’s forces did not result from a sophisticated jihadist campaign. Instead, 13 years of war had left the army depleted and dependent on outdated Soviet equipment and demoralized troops.
Adding to the chaos was a grim international backdrop. The fall of Aleppo coincided with a tenuous cease-fire in Lebanon after two months of relentless Israeli attacks targeting Hezbollah, a key ally of Assad and a valuable asset to Iran.
Meanwhile, Russia’s hands were tied. Four years after the start of a war that was expected to last several weeks, Moscow now faces a barrage of NATO medium-range missiles on its territory.
But Turkey has real influence in Syria. Ankara’s failed attempt to normalize relations with Damascus and US President-elect Donald Trump’s recent announcement of a complete withdrawal of US troops have significantly shaped the current crisis.
This reflects a similar withdrawal announcement in March 2019, which led to Turkey-backed Islamist forces taking over the Kurdish-Syrian region of Serekaniye. A year ago, the same group took control of Afrin, another Kurdish enclave north of Damascus.
Since then, Turkey has waged a campaign of ethnic cleansing against Kurds along its southern border, marred by merciless bombings and forced resettlement projects that have displaced thousands of people.
What now?
“Syria has become the epicenter of World War III. Russia, the United Nations, Iran…all the great powers are fighting here.” Salih Muslim, a prominent Kurdish leader and member of the Democratic Unionist Party’s presidential committee, told IPS. Qamishlo’s phone interview.
Muslim, a former political prisoner, emphasized that Syrians should coexist “regardless of race, creed or ideology.”
Surprisingly, the leader of the jihadist offensive, Abu Mohammad al-Jolani, expressed similar thoughts. But his credibility is questionable given his record as commander of al Qaeda’s Syrian branch.
According to a report by the Rojava Information Center titled “When Jihadism Learns to Smile,” al-Jolani has worked hard to build “a discreet façade both in foreign and domestic politics.”
“The separation of ISIS and HTS is clear. “However, debate continues over the nature and extent of the remaining relationship between HTS and Al Qaeda,” the report said.
Spanish journalist and Middle East analyst Manuel Martorell is skeptical of HTS’s promises.
“When the Islamists come to power, they always insist that they will respect minorities and not impose fundamentalism. But behind these promises lies a hidden agenda that will ultimately Islamize society and force minorities to flee,” Martorell told IPS in a phone interview from Pamplona.
He describes the HTS attack as part of “Erdogan’s strategic operation to impose his own solution on Syria.” This includes dismantling Kurdish autonomy and ethnically cleansing Kurds along the Syrian-Turkish border.
“It is inconceivable that pro-Turkish Islamist groups and their successors in al-Qaeda would launch these attacks without Turkey’s consent and support,” Martorell added.
As uncertainty grows, Kurdish leaders have called for mobilization to halt the jihadists’ advance, warning that such a power vacuum could lay the groundwork for a resurgence of ISIS.
ISIS activity has already been reported in desert areas and in camps where their families and collaborators reside. Meanwhile, clashes between Turkish-backed jihadists and Kurdish forces are intensifying, especially in areas such as Manbij, northeast of Damascus.
On December 5, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres lamented that the situation in Syria was the result of “chronic collective failures that have persisted for years.”
Now, as thousands of displaced Syrians return from Turkey, they face another uncertain future: those fleeing a new wave of exodus from a country that has been in ruins for more than a decade.
© Interpress Service (2024) — All Rights ReservedOriginal source: Interpress Service
