Just a month ago, it seemed like nothing could stop Donald Trump from becoming president again — not even a bullet.
But since then, President Biden has dropped out of the 2024 race and endorsed Vice President Harris. Now, Trump is down in the polls, Harris has become a fundraising juggernaut, and Republicans are worried about the impact on lower-level votes in the House and Senate.
On the other side, the changes at the top of the ticket have energized Democrats up and down the ballot. Speaking about the new poll, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) said, “The numbers are ominous.” The numbers are so good for Democrats that the House Majority PAC is now investing in Iowa and Wisconsin. Chuck Schumer now believes they can do even better in 2022 and take control of Congress.
In 2016, Donald Trump was the sail that lifted the Republican Party into the White House and the House and Senate. But since then, with Trump in control of the nomination, he has been the anchor, holding the Republican Party back and leading to disappointing results in 2018 and 2020.
Trump is not making it easy for the GOP today. He replaced Biden with an old man who can’t remember what state he’s in, and he continued his trademark chaotic messaging, talking about himself and insulting his opponents. Trump fatigue is setting in, and even his most ardent supporters are walking out of the stadium.
With Harris’ campaign gaining momentum and Trump continuing to change direction and fail to stick to his message, what should Mike Johnson and the Republican Party do?
Johnson should adopt Nikki Haley’s approach. Few politicians are smart enough to walk the tightrope between MAGA and Never-Trump as Haley has done for the past eight years. While challenging Trump in the primaries, the former South Carolina governor built a strong network of public support and a healthy fundraising pipeline. She continues to criticize Trump and his poor politics while maintaining support for his conservative policies.
While Trump’s rise has left prominent Republicans like Ted Cruz and Kevin McCarthy in the shadows, Haley has established herself as a strong candidate to take over after Trump leaves, and has the potential to reunite a divided party into a thriving one.
Johnson doesn’t have to abandon Trump. He should do what Haley did and challenge the former president when he crosses the line. “As iron sharpens iron, so one man sharpens another.” That would provide cover for congressional candidates in swing districts whenever Trump steps off the teleprompter.
Instead of trying to spur Trump’s ego, Johnson should focus on building popular support for the Republican Party. To do so, he should build a coalition with Haley and leverage her network of supporters. This would help the GOP retain control of the House and provide a check on the possibility of a Harris administration.
Trump is showing his weak hand and stubbornness. One of the president’s main roles is to hire talented people for the administration. Haley is the most talented politician, and Trump has been reluctant to bring her on board, even while longtime supporters like Lindsey Graham have championed her. She would likely have to promise Cabinet appointments to campaign for Trump, but Trump has distanced himself from her.
If Trump really wants to win, he should follow Lincoln’s lead and bring his competitors on board.
Haley needs to be tough on her. She’s on the rise, Trump’s on the decline.
For now, she holds the cards. Even if Trump wins reelection, he will be a boiteux president, and his party will likely be a minority in Congress. Haley should continue to build support for a 2028 run by investing in Mike Johnson and the House race. If Trump wants her help, she should nominate Cabinet positions. If Haley is tapped as secretary of state, some Never-Trumpers might hold their noses and vote for him, or at least not for Harris.
Trump continues to hold a monopoly over the Republican Party, but that alone is unlikely to be enough to win the election or upset the congressional nomination. Harris may be far left and poor on policy, but Trump seems incapable of exploiting that. And even if he could, it might not be enough to counter the injection of optimism Harris brought to the race.
If Republicans want to win, they need to take Haley’s approach.
Jeff Mayhew is a Christian, founding editor of Politics and Parenting, and president of East Coast operations for the No Cap Fund.
