Washington DC – It started with a famous quote from actor Clint Eastwood:
“Have a nice day,” U.S. President Joe Biden said in a video challenging his Republican foe, former President Donald Trump, to two debates ahead of the 2024 presidential election. It will be aired for the first time this Thursday.
Biden made an irresistible offer to Trump, who has long shown off his skills on the debate stage. Trump quickly responded with his own bravado: “I’m ready to go wherever you are.”
There has been back-and-forth speculation that Biden, in his 80s, and Trump, in his 70s, could abandon nationally televised debates in favor of more controlled, less combative settings to spread their campaign messages, like rallies, for example.
According to Aaron Kall, director of the University of Michigan’s debate program, head-to-head confrontation is a high-stakes political calculation.
But it could also be the key to getting ahead in a gridlocked race where polls show Trump and Biden closely aligned. Even Trump’s historic criminal convictions did little to tip the scales.
“Both candidates think it would be advantageous for their opponent to be in the public eye for a long time,” Kall told Al Jazeera. “This is especially true for voters who don’t normally show interest.”
“But in reality, only one of them may be correct.”
history of confrontation
This debate may be the first in the 2024 presidential election, but it will be the third time Trump and Biden have faced off as presidential candidates. The two previously faced off in the 2020 election.
“Both of them haven’t had a debate (since their last fight), which is kind of unique,” Kall said, noting that Trump skipped the Republican debate ahead of this year’s primaries.
“So neither of them will have practiced without debating since the fall of 2020, and it may take some time to get back to their normal debating style,” he said.
The forum suggested a mixed bag for both.
When Trump first successfully ran for office in 2016, his raucous, combative and improvisational debate style helped him gain notoriety in a crowded field of Republican presidential candidates.
His subsequent loss to Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton received higher ratings than any other debate before or since. It attracted approximately 84 million viewers.
Trump, who has been camera-ready since his days as a reality star, put on an insult-filled and physically sinister show that helped solidify his public persona and build his electoral base, Kall explained. At one point during her confrontation with Clinton, Trump appeared to stare at her as she spoke.
During his early presidential bid, Biden often failed to win fights in crowded Democratic primary debates. Still, experts say he proved a worthy opponent in head-to-head vice presidential debates with Sarah Palin in 2008 and Paul Ryan in 2012.
Relying on his everyman charm, Biden played the role of an outspoken, boxing attack dog on the debate stage, providing a counterpoint to the more polished Barack Obama, with whom he would serve as vice president.
In September 2020, then-incumbent Trump finally faced off against Biden.
The event quickly went off the rails as President Trump repeatedly yelled at Biden and Fox News host Chris Wallace. As the evening wore on, Wallace took on the role of angry babysitter. Trump looked belligerent and Biden was embarrassed.
“Would you like to be quiet?” Biden appealed to Trump with one of the most memorable quotes from the event.
National Public Radio’s political correspondent Domenico Montanaro later described the evening as chaos, writing that it may have been the “worst” presidential debate in history.
“If this were a boxing match, instead President Trump refused to come down the ropes, the referee tried to calm him down, and Joe Biden stood in the center of the ring with his gloves on and a confused look on his face,” Montanaro said. wrote:
What motivates you to participate?
But that first debate likely planted the seeds for another confrontation between Trump and Biden.
Kall said Biden will hope the debate will showcase the increasingly radical rhetoric that is all too common at Trump rallies. But it may not be noticeable to “moderates, independents and soft supporters.”
After all, Trump infamously refused to condemn white supremacy during the first debate of 2020, instead telling the far-right group Proud Boys to “stand back and wait.”
President Trump may hope that the duration of the live broadcast will put pressure on Biden’s aging nature, Kall explained.
Despite the debate’s unusual June schedule, viewership is expected to be high. For example, when Trump and Biden first debated in 2020, the viewership was 73 million, the third highest in history.
“For the average, underinformed voter, they don’t watch until closer to the election, but they can engage in the debate,” Kall said. “So these debates are one of the rare opportunities for regular people who might vote but don’t really follow the daily updates to see the candidates for the first time in a long time.”
Biden and Trump’s first debate of 2020 also cast a long shadow over the format of Thursday’s debate, which will be hosted by CNN in Atlanta, Georgia.
The candidate’s microphone is muted when he or she is not speaking. There will be no studio audience. Both of these factors are widely seen as favoring Biden. The event also will not be overseen by the bipartisan Commission on Presidential Debates, breaking with 30 years of tradition.
How can candidates maximize their event?
The economy, inflation and immigration issues are expected to feature heavily at the event, as will foreign policy issues regarding China, Ukraine and Israel’s war on Gaza.
Debate moderators Jake Tapper and Dana Bash are also expected to make the case for the 2020 presidential election. Trump has publicly claimed, without evidence, that the election was “stolen” due to voter fraud.
Another possible topic of debate is Trump’s ongoing legal troubles. The event comes less than a month after Trump was convicted in New York on 34 felonies for falsifying business documents to cover up hush money payments to adult film star Stormy Daniels.
With this ruling, Trump became the first former or current president in U.S. history to be convicted of criminal charges. Biden has been careful to avoid appearing complicit when commenting on the trial, but his campaign released a new ad this month highlighting the conviction as evidence of Trump’s character.
“This is an election between a convicted criminal who only cares about himself and a president who fights for his family,” the ad’s voiceover says.
But the ruling may present an opening for Trump, according to James Davis, a Republican strategist and founder of Touchdown Strategies.
Davis said the jury’s decision only put a small dent in Trump’s support base, and Republican officials generally criticized the conviction as politicized.
The debate gives Trump a stage to advance that narrative, especially among key demographics, including young black men, Davis added.
He recommended that Trump should try to tie his conviction to the First Step Act, legislation he signed in 2018 to reduce overly long federal prison sentences.
“He said, ‘I know that the criminal justice system doesn’t treat people fairly across the board. That’s why I passed the First Step Act, because it’s been treating minorities and black communities unfairly for years.’ said Davis. Al Jazeera.
“If he can keep it clean and message-focused, he will do well,” he added. “But if he appears to lean more into Trump’s revenge tour, that will ultimately validate some of the arguments against him that Biden has been making.”
Christian Ramos, a Democratic strategist, said the debate offers Biden an opportunity to dispel negative perceptions about the country’s economic performance. For example, Biden could promote the policies he signed to create jobs.
“It’s an opportunity for me to talk about what I’ve been doing over the past three years and how I can help the American people,” Ramos told Al Jazeera.
He also pointed to polls showing some independent voters are moving away from Trump after his conviction. These demographics could be key in deciding the election.
“It may still be a bridge too far for many voters,” Ramos said of Trump’s conviction. “So this is an opportunity for Biden to tell that story to those voters and reach them through the debate.”
