The Army-Navy game holds a special and unique place on the college football calendar.
Considering the history, brutality and extravagance of the rivalry, its importance is undeniable. This is literally the only game played on a Saturday since conference championship weekend in December. But usually the stakes of the game don’t matter in terms of standings or national championship races.
This year is complicated.
Service Academy is undefeated and ranked. And the 12-team College Football Playoff is no. 23 Black Knights (7-0) and no. 24 That means the Midshipmen (6-0) are a true playoff contender. If only one of them could win the American Athletic Conference.
However, the playoff field is scheduled to open on December 8th. It’s six days before the annual Army-Navy game begins in Landover, Maryland. And since Army and Navy are now conference mates in the AAC, the Dec. 14 matchup could be the most important one. The second meeting between the teams in a season.
Let’s take a look at how things can shake out.
How did we get here?
Army QB Bryson Daily leads all FBS players with 19 rushing touchdowns. (Lucas Borland/Image Image)
It was the first time since 1926 that Army and Navy both started the season 6-0.
The Black Knights are down 7-0 and have yet to trail in the game. Not surprisingly, they lead the nation in rushing offense, led by quarterback Bryson Daily, who has 26 total touchdowns. Army is already 6-0 in AAC play. That means there are only two conference games left at UTSA North Texas.
The Midshipmen are 6-0 in a massive game against No. 12 Notre Dame at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, and 4-0 in the AAC. This is the best season since 2019, when they already achieved 11 wins.
Army and Navy currently occupy the top two spots in the AAC rankings.
So…does that mean they can play twice?
Yes — and for several weeks in a row. They face off in the conference championship game on Dec. 6 and could meet again on Dec. 14 for the annual rivalry.
But Tulane is right behind them with a 3-0 conference record and plays Navy on Nov. 16. A loss could derail Navy’s chances of earning a conference championship berth and dash the Mids’ playoff hopes.
Is the Army-Navy game included in the CFP?
There will be a potential meeting in the AAC Championship. But this is not the case with the annual neutral site game.
Playoff selection day is Sunday, December 8, with the annual Army-Navy game taking place the following Saturday. In the four-team playoff era, the selection committee had protocols in place to wait for Army and Navy if it affected the field. But this time we couldn’t wait for the results, as the 12-team playoffs begin the weekend of December 20-21.
This means there is a scenario where a service academy wins the AAC, advances to the CFP, and then loses its final regular season game to the opponent it beat to advance to the playoffs.
Of course, you’ll still have bragging rights.
Would Army or Navy have less time to prepare for a playoff game?
Given that no other teams are playing the week of Dec. 14, there will be less time to prepare for postseason opponents if one of the two service academies qualifies for a playoff spot.
What are the chances of Army or Navy making the playoffs?
The probability of Army and Navy advancing to the playoffs is 29.6%, but the individual winning percentages of both teams appear to be slightly different depending on the results of the next game.
If Navy beats Notre Dame on Saturday, the Midshipmen’s chances of making the playoffs increase to 10%. athleticThis is Austin Mock. If a loss occurs, that rate drops to 5%.
The Army has an easier opponent in the Air Force, so the percentage of cadets is higher. 30% for a win, 14% for a loss. Army also plays Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Nov. 23.
According to Mock’s model, Army has a 63% chance of winning the AAC, while Navy has a 15% chance.
deeper
What does Army and Navy’s historic start mean for the AAC Championship? CFP?
What else needs to happen for both teams to make the playoffs?
Two things must happen. First, what is clear is that either Army or Navy continues to win and win in the AAC. As an at-large team, their chances of making the playoffs are slim to none.
Second, they’re going to need the Mountain West to beat each other up. Boise State (5-1) currently sits ahead of Army and Navy, with the Broncos’ only blemish being a road loss at Oregon.
Another team to worry about in the Mountain West is UNLV (6-1). Boise State plays at UNLV on Friday, which will have significant implications for its Group of 5 playoff bid.
If you want a rooting guide for getting Army or Navy into the CFP, you’ll probably be rooting for UNLV to pull off an upset this weekend and go on to have both teams lose. — Austin Mock
Have Army or Navy ever won a national championship?
Led by 1946 Heisman Trophy winner Glenn Davis, Army won national titles in 1944, 1945, and 1946. (Bettmann via Getty Images)
Yes, but the specifics are a bit complicated because college football hasn’t always had a national championship game.
Army won five national championships (1914, 1916, 1944, 1945, 1946), but several programs won the title in four of those years. Likewise, the Navy claims a share of the 1926 national title.
The last time both teams ranked in the AP top 10 was in 1964, when Navy peaked at No. 6.
What’s next?
Army closes out the regular season with Air Force (1-6), North Texas (5-2), Notre Dame (6-1), UTSA (3-4) and Navy.
Navy is rounded out by Notre Dame, Rice (2-5), South Florida (3-4), Tulane (5-2), East Carolina (3-4) and Army.
(Top photo: Barry Chin / The Boston Globe via Getty Images)
