It will likely take years for Apple Intelligence to come up with a feature set compelling enough for people to pay for it. BloombergMark Gurman wrote in this week’s Power On newsletter that Apple Intelligence is so new that Gurman estimates it will take “three years” for Apple to make a product worth paying for, and even that “maybe even in the best-case scenario.”
Gurman suggested last month that Apple’s long-term plan is to develop something like Apple Intelligence+, which would have additional features that users would pay a monthly fee for. Apple already has a tiered subscription setup for iCloud, so Apple Intelligence could work similarly.
iCloud offers 5GB of free storage to all users, but a paid iCloud+ subscription plan includes more storage and access to features like iCloud Private Relay. In the future, basic Apple Intelligence access may continue to be free, while more advanced features may require a subscription. OpenAI and other companies charge for AI queries and image generation after a set free cap, due to the computing power and costs associated with AI.
As of now, the first Apple Intelligence features are only partially available in iOS 18.1, iPadOS 18.1, and macOS Sequoia 15.1 betas. Apple has added a few other features, like writing tools, some basic Siri improvements, Smart Reply in Messages and Mail, and a Memory Maker option in Photos, but Image Playground, Genmoji, and most of the Siri upgrades won’t arrive until late 2024 or 2025.
In addition to fully rolling out the first Apple Intelligence features announced at WWDC 2024, Apple will also need to work on expanding the feature to more countries, including China and the European Union. The features Apple showed off in June likely won’t be fully available until 2025, and there’s no word yet on when they’ll expand to more countries (including other languages), so it’s easy to see that it could take until 2027 or later to have a robust product.
As another point of reference, Apple introduced Emergency SOS via satellite with the iPhone 14 in 2022. The company plans to eventually charge for this feature, but it won’t be until at least 2025 before the first iPhone owners will have to pay. Apple’s Emergency SOS pricing hasn’t been announced yet.
If Apple does start charging for Apple Intelligence, it could be included with an existing iCloud+ plan, or it could be part of Apple’s subscription bundle, Apple One. Counterpoint Research analyst Neil Shah recently speculated that Apple could charge between $10 and $20 for Apple Intelligence, which would be included with an Apple One plan. The basic Apple One plan currently costs $19.95 per month and includes 50GB of iCloud+ storage, Apple TV+, Apple Music, and Apple Arcade.