ANC falls, Jacob Zuma rises after South African election

South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is expected to lose its majority in parliament for the first time since President Nelson Mandela won victory by ending apartheid in 1994.

It would mark the end of the party’s decades-long domination of South African politics, raise questions about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and usher in an era of coalition politics.

Here are three factors that explain how South Africa got here, why and what its future holds:

The ANC was once a respected liberation movement etched into the minds of South Africans, but after 30 years in power, it has become synonymous with corruption and bad governance.

As a result, Wednesday’s election was punished, especially by young people who turned out in large numbers to vote against the parties, something they have never done in previous elections.

“They are fed up with corruption and they have been hit hardest by unemployment. They have turned on the ANC,” said William Gumede, president of the non-profit Democracy Works Foundation.

This represents a generational divide in South Africa. Even though their parents lived through apartheid, they remain loyal to the ANC because they know firsthand its rich history as a liberation movement that liberated black people from the chains of apartheid.

But support for the ANC has also declined among older voters, including in rural heartlands.

“The ANC lost support in big cities a long time ago. Now it is losing support in rural areas too,” Professor Gumede told the BBC.

The ANC reached its peak in the 2004 elections, winning 70% of the vote. Since then, it has lost 3-4% of support in each election, reaching 57% in a 2019 opinion poll.

Voter turnout appears to have dropped significantly in this election, ranging from 8% to 15%.

Former South African President Jacob Zuma (82) is back with a vengeance.

He was ousted by the ANC in 2018 on charges of corruption, which he denied. He was succeeded by President Cyril Ramaphosa.

About three years later, he was sentenced to 15 months in prison for contempt after defying a court order to appear for an investigation into allegations of corruption during his nine years in office.

President Ramaphosa released Zuma after serving only three months of his sentence in a bid to appease Zuma and his angry supporters.

But he is likely to regret this decision now that Mr Zuma has returned to the political forefront under the banner of a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), or Spear of the Nation.

Results released so far show the ANC has lost most of its support to MK, which could take control of KwaZulu-Natal.

If this is supported by the final result, it will make Mr Zuma the region’s political leader and provide him with a platform from which to plan his main target: the downfall of Mr Ramaphosa.

His conviction means he is barred from sitting in parliament but can still pull the strings behind the scenes.

MK’s growth is remarkable. The group was only registered last September and Mr Zuma announced he would join in December as he cannot vote for the Ramaphosa-led ANC. Since then it has shaken up South African politics in a way no new political party has done in such a short period of time since the end of apartheid.

Paddy Harper, KwaZulu-Natal correspondent for South Africa’s Mail & Guardian newspaper, said the MK not only supported the ANC but also supported the radical Economic Freedom Fighters, by far South Africa’s third largest party. He said it also weakened the support of (EFF).

Early results suggest MKs are challenging for the third place in parliament.

In KwaZulu-Natal, the EFF’s final turnout could be in the single digits if current trends continue, Mr Harper told the BBC.

EFF and MK advocate similar economic policies, including the confiscation of white-owned land and the nationalization of key sectors of the economy.

But Mr Zuma has won the hearts of EFF supporters in his home state of KwaZulu-Natal.

He incorporated Zulu nationalism into his campaign, invoking memories of the nation’s founder, King Shaka.

The former president also pledged to support the government to strengthen the powers of all South African kings and chiefs who currently hold ceremonial powers and bring about development in the rural areas where they exert influence.

The MK’s manifesto promised to “confiscate all land without compensation and transfer ownership to the people under the management of the state and traditional leaders.”

The MK also campaigned on Prime Minister Zuma’s performance in government, saying the economy had worsened under Ramaphosa.

MK supporters have also accused Prime Minister Ramaphosa of worsening poverty and unemployment after imposing one of the world’s strictest lockdowns during the coronavirus pandemic.

South Africa’s Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) and the News24 website predicted the ANC’s final voter turnout would be around 42%.

If this turns out to be true, the consequences will be disastrous for the ANC and Mr Ramaphosa.

He could come under pressure from his party to resign, with his deputy, Paul Mashatile, being mentioned as a potential successor.

Mr Ramaphosa led the ANC through a poor election campaign that left the party so desperate that former president Thabo Mbeki and other retired party leaders joined the campaign to bolster the vote.

The president is widely known as a weak and indecisive person. He defended himself by saying his focus was on “social compaction,” or consensus building.

“Those who want an autocratic, adventurous and reckless president will not find that in me.” He said this on the campaign trail:.

If the ANC intervenes, Mr Ramaphosa’s chances of staying in office will be further improved. 45% and 50% of the final vote.

This comes as many ANC members resigned during the election campaign and said the party could remain in power by forming a coalition with smaller parties such as the Inkata Freedom Party (IFP), which is mainly supported by KwaZulu’s Zulu people. -Natal, or Muslim Al Jama-ah party.

However, if the ANC falls below 45%, it will likely need a larger party as a coalition partner.

This could be MK, the EFF or the main opposition Democratic Alliance (DA), which advocates center-right policies such as greater privatization and abolition of the minimum wage.

Any coalition deal at the national level will be influenced by what happens in the provinces, particularly the most populous provinces of Gauteng and KwaZulu-Natal, home to Johannesburg and Pretoria.

One possibility could be a coalition between MK and the ANC in KwaZulu-Natal and nationally, but that seems unlikely given the rocky relationship between the two parties.

Instead, the ANC could try to offer the DA and IFP a deal where the three parties would govern jointly at national level and in KwaZulu-Natal.

“The DA and IFP have left that option open to prevent the EFF and MKs from intervening in government,” Mr Harper said.

The DA’s support appears to have increased in this election, with the party regaining the votes of white people who supported right-wing parties in the last election, and the votes of some black people who felt they needed a chance to run for central government.

Another option for the ANC is to form a coalition with the EFF in national government, as well as in Gauteng, where the ANC is set to lose its majority.

ANC leaders in Gauteng, backed by Mashatile, are said to favor a coalition with the EFF.

Mr Malema, a former ANC youth leader, apparently is open to the idea.

Writing on South Africa’s Daily Maverick news site earlier this month, journalist Ferial Haffajee said the EFF leader, who had previously been found guilty of hate speech for singing the anti-apartheid song Shoot the Boer (a reference to white farmers), was “considered more He said during the election campaign, “There is less anger,” and at a city hall meeting last April, he expressed the following views. The EFF’s natural coalition partner is the ANC.

“Even if the business community and markets are intimidated by the ANC-EFF coalition, its potential is clearly front and center of Malema’s strategy to reach the Union Buildings (the seat of government),” Haffajee wrote.

“Some in the ANC support a coalition with the EFF. At the same time, Ramaphosa’s supporters in the ANC believe that such a coalition would create an existential crisis for the old liberation movement culture,” she added.

Difficult decisions therefore lie ahead for the ANC following the election, which marks South Africa’s entry into a new era, with the opposition having the power to make or break the government.