After the vote: How do authoritarians get closer to Brussels?

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Radical, far-right and anti-establishment parties have gained significant ground across the EU this year. The recent victory of the Freedom Party (FPÖ) in Austria’s general election, the regional breakthrough of the Alternative for Germany (AfD), and the strength of nationalist parties in June’s European Parliament elections all point to the rise of populism across Europe. suggests. .

These parties have violated sanitary boundaries on many occasions and are now shaping policy despite holding minority positions in their respective legislatures.

At the European level, despite all the talk about a ‘surge’ in support for the far right and predictions that they will dominate the next European Parliament, centrists still hold the upper hand.

But the difference now is that it faces threats from extremist forces on both ends of the political spectrum and is under pressure to engage with these groups in key areas such as immigration policy and lean into their positions to avoid losses in popularity. .

There are currently three competing blocs on the right: European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR), European Patriots (ESN) and European Sovereign States (ESN), which together account for 25% of the legislature. This is an increase from 17% five years ago.

At the other extreme, left-wing groups and other left-wing but non-aligned parties have also seen gains in support, emboldened by the recent performance of Germany’s Sahra-Wagenknecht (BSW) and France’s New Popular Front.

Although these groups have different views in many areas, they are united in their distrust of EU institutions and their willingness to take a pro-authoritarian stance.

They also share a determination to strengthen their national identity and appear content to distance themselves from important geopolitical allies.

In these circumstances, finding clarity and consistency on pressing issues such as support for Ukraine and protection against Chinese influence can be difficult and must be handled carefully.

Who supports what and why?

A new study by the Political Capital Institute shows that the ECR is the most critical of Russia and China among extremist groups after its two core members, Giorgia Meloni’s Italian Brotherhood and Jarosław Kaczynski’s Law and Justice (PIS) party. It is said that there is a high possibility that they will remain. Poland has consistently supported almost all resolutions condemning the Kremlin and Beijing.

The far-right ESN, led by AfD, is becoming more authoritarian and steadfastly pro-China. Meanwhile, the Patriots, led by National Rally’s Jordan Bardella, are currently divided by the presence of Viktor Orban, who is seeking to deepen ties between the government and Beijing through an ‘all-weather partnership’. there is.

At the other end of the spectrum, radical “left” groups, including Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise, are unlikely to accept either side’s proposals and will almost certainly attempt to soften the legislature’s hard-line stance on China. That’s because its members have historically enjoyed uncritical support for Beijing.

As for Russia’s war in Ukraine, the new legislature has already outlined its voting position regarding the conflict. In the first plenary session, lawmakers overwhelmingly passed a resolution reaffirming the need for continued EU support for Ukraine.

A closer look at voting patterns shows that the ECR group has remained highly critical of Russia and remains the most critical of Russia among radical, far-right, and far-left groups.

The most notable surprise was that the majority of patriots voted, including National Rally and Fidesz, which have been soft on Russia for some time, as evidenced by their approach to EU sanctions and the support package for Kiev. In opposing or abstaining, some of the other members (Lega and ANO) moved from their previous Kremlin-critical stance to broader alignment with the rest of the group.

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This represents a convergence within the Patriots toward a more unified pro-Russian stance.

Meanwhile, divisions reign in left-wing circles. Although the group’s most influential party, FI, supported the resolution, others did not follow suit. For example, Italy’s Movimento 5 Stelle (M5S) voted against a resolution criticizing Russia, despite supporting it in previous legislative sessions.

ambition and distrust

Our findings, and the potential for change already demonstrated by some political parties, suggest that despite rifts within certain groups, there may be more room for cooperation across the political spectrum than previously thought.

This is what von der Leyen and her colleagues should focus on.

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For example, they are likely to find support among certain factions of the ECR and the Patriot group to develop a united front against Beijing’s claims, and may even attract votes from the left on items related to the war in Ukraine.

But in both cases, the ambitions of these parties and their deep-rooted distrust of the Brussels establishment will make them dangerous bedfellows.

Mainstream political parties have not yet found a panacea to counter the extreme politics of the right and left, and it is clear that pro-Russian and pro-China sentiment will continue to spread.

The success of von der Leyen and her committee will lie in navigating the delicate voting networks that currently exist in the European Parliament without bringing Beijing and Moscow closer to Brussels.

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If they can rise to this challenge and portray themselves as leaders who can solve the issues that matter to their voters, they could provide a blueprint for individual member states to curb and curb the growth of radical politics over the next five years.

Péter Krekó, Richárd Demény and Csaba Molnár are affiliated with Political Capital, a think tank based in Budapest. They are the authors of a new study titled “Increasing Russian and Chinese Influence in the New European Parliament?”

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