Christine M Bakke, UCL; gerard Tol, Virginia TechJohn O’Loughlin; University of Colorado Boulder
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is doing his best to shake up the dynamics of the Russia-Ukraine war. He recently carried out a major cabinet reshuffle, replacing more than nine ministers, including Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba. Announcing the changes, Prime Minister Zelenskyy said he wanted his government to be “more active” in seeking support from Western allies.
These cabinet changes come as Ukraine goes on the offensive in Russia’s Kursk oblast. Zelenskyy said retaining some of the Russian territory would give Kiev leverage in future territorial exchange talks with Russia.
And while criticism of Zelenskyy’s gamble grew as Ukraine’s position in the eastern Donbas region deteriorated, the sight of Ukrainian soldiers standing up to Russia undoubtedly boosted Ukrainian morale.
The Ukrainian people needed this. As the war continued and costs increased, morale and public health deteriorated.
We have been tracking Ukrainian sentiment for years. In June and July 2024, in collaboration with the Kiev International Institute of Sociology (KIIS), we conducted a telephone poll among 2,200 respondents representative of the adult population in government-controlled areas of Ukraine. This was a follow-up to the October 2022 survey.
We must treat wartime polls with caution. But our findings show that people are worried about the war fatigue of their fellow Ukrainians. This also suggests that support for negotiations and territorial concessions is growing, even if reluctant.
There is room for compromise
Ukrainian attitudes toward territorial concessions also began to change, but only slightly. Most people have opposed land abandonment since 2014, but KIIS’ own regular omnibus surveys provide evidence of growing awareness that territorial concessions, currently shared by a third of Ukrainians, may be necessary.
In June-July 2024, we repeated the questions we asked in October 2022 about territorial concessions, as shown below. “All of the current choices about what to do during a Russian attack have significant costs, but the costs are different. Knowing this, which of the following four choices should the Ukrainian government make at this point?”
The biggest change is that in 2022, 71% of respondents supported the proposal to “continue to oppose Russian aggression until all Ukrainian territories, including Crimea, are liberated,” while in 2024, support for that option dropped to 51%. It fell.
In 2022, only 11% agreed that “both sides should attempt an immediate ceasefire with conditions and begin intensive negotiations.” By 2024, that share has increased to 31%.
However, there are differences in how people view these choices. Much depends on whether they have been displaced (though whether they have lost family or friends seems to make little difference), whether they worry about the war fatigue of their fellow Ukrainians, and whether they are optimistic or pessimistic about Western support.
Saving lives, ensuring Ukraine’s sovereignty, and protecting the country’s future security are more important than territory in this war. A recent study by KIIS found that in a hypothetical negotiation scenario, people’s views on the importance of preserving territorial integrity may vary depending on how a possible deal would protect other things they care about.
For two and a half years, the brutal war has affected the daily lives of Ukrainians, and many (43%) believe the war will continue for at least another year. While most respondents to the survey have not suffered physical injury as a result of Russian violence (12%), about half have witnessed Russian violence and most have lost a close family member or friend (62%). About a third were driven out of their homes.
As the number of reports increases, the survey also shows a growing awareness of war fatigue. Instead of asking respondents directly whether they felt this themselves, we asked whether such concerns were common among their Ukrainian colleagues. The results were very revealing. While 58% were ‘a lot’ worried and 28% were ‘somewhat’ worried, only 10% said they were not worried about war fatigue.
Although there are signs of war fatigue among Ukraine’s Western allies, our survey shows that Ukrainians remain generally optimistic about continued support from the West. However, the figure is lower than in October 2022. About 19% believe that Western support will increase (down from 29% in 2022). , 35% believe it will remain the same (41% in 2022). Almost a quarter (24%) believe this will persist, but at a lower level than now (up from 16% in 2022). 13% thought it would not last (up from 3% in 2022).
Is it life or death?
Research conducted since the beginning of the war showed that Ukrainians strongly favored a strategy of preserving the country’s political autonomy and restoring its territorial integrity. This will remain in place “even if the concessions reduce the expected civilian and military deaths or reduce the risk of nuclear attack in the next three months.”
The study’s authors noted: “If Russia takes control of the government in Kiev or the eastern region, the lives of many Ukrainians could be at risk. That’s because Russia’s widespread human rights abuses in temporarily occupied territories are well-documented. .”
Given the cumulative death toll from war in the 2024 survey, we designed a simple framing experiment that could indicate whether considerations of human loss can shape people’s views about negotiations. We asked half of the randomly selected respondents whether they agreed that “Ukraine would give up some territory to end the war.” About 24% said yes.
The other half were asked whether they would accept that “Ukraine would give up some of its territory to save lives and end the war.” In this case, 34% said yes. So, rightly or wrongly, support for territorial concessions increases if they are associated with saving lives.
However, when asked directly in the 2024 survey whether they agreed with the statement “Russia should be able to control occupied territories from 2022,” 90% disagreed. Therefore, while support for the struggle to restore full territorial integrity still exists in the majority, support is increasing, while support for negotiations is increasing.
What we also know from our research is that there is little evidence that Russia’s annexation of the territory would have any legitimacy among Ukrainians.
Kristin M Bakke, Professor of Political Science and International Relations; UCL.
Gerard Toal, Professor of Government and International Affairs; Virginia Tech.
John O’Loughlin, Professor of Geography; University of Colorado Boulder.
This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
memo: The views expressed in this post are those of the author and not those of the UCL European Institute or UCL..
Featured image: Damaged elementary school in Kiev, posted on June 28, 2022 by Maksym Pozniak-Haraburda on Unsplash.
