Joe Biden has long led Donald Trump by voters 18-29. It was the same in the 2020 presidential election, and it was the same in this presidential election as well.
But some new figures show Trump is facing growing competition among this age group, which has historically favored Democrats.
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Big shift toward Trump for young voters
The Harvard Institute of Politics conducted a survey of 2,010 Americans aged 18 to 29 from March 14th to 21st.
According to a public opinion poll, “If the presidential election were held today, President Biden would surpass former President Trump among both registered voters (Biden 50%, Trump 37%) and young voters under 30 (Biden 56%, Trump 37%). It was found that Without voter screening (i.e., all young people ages 18 to 29), the race narrows to single digits: 45% for President Biden, 37% for former President Trump, and 16% undecided.”
Let’s compare it to the last presidential election. It was a tight race.
The poll said, “For context, at this stage of the 2020 election, Biden leads Trump by 23 points (51% to 28%) and 30 points (60% to 30%) among all young people.” ) among voters under 30 years of age.”
In 2020, Biden led Trump by 23 percentage points among all voters under 30.
Biden’s 18-29 lead in this election is only 8 points.
That’s a significant change, and for young voters, it’s a 15-point shift toward Trump.
There is another area where Trump has a clear advantage over Biden. It’s a voter passion that’s almost non-existent on Biden’s side.
Today, Biden’s lead within that same group has fallen to just eight points. That’s a 15-point shift in Trump’s direction.
According to the poll, “three-quarters (76%) of Trump voters responded that they enthusiastically supported his candidate, while 44% of Biden voters responded the same way.”
ouch.
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Not optimistic numbers for Biden
Other research shows that only 9% of voters under 30 believe the country is on the right track, while 58% of them say the country is on the wrong track.
“Young people today have clear concerns about where our country is headed,” Sethi Warren, director of the Harvard Kennedy School’s Institute of Politics, said in a press release.
“Concerns about the economy, foreign policy, immigration and climate have young people across the country concerned and increasingly ready to make their voices heard at the polls this November,” Warren added.
Biden’s job approval rating among these young voters is 31%. Vice President Kamala Harris? It’s almost the same at 32%.
“Make no mistake: This is a different youth electorate than we saw in 2020 and 2022, and young voters are motivated by different things,” said John Della Volpe, director of polling at the Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics and an expert on young voter polling. .” he said. , told Politico.
“Economic issues are paramount and housing is the main concern. And the gap between the political preferences of young men and young women is stark,” he continued.
Make no mistake. Joe Biden still leads in this key voter demographic.
But not as many as there were in the 2020 race, which was already close.
