How can West Ham steal points from Manchester City? Hammers’ set-piece could decide Premier League title

You will know the story. Battered and bruised, our hero can take no more as he is on the verge of defeat by his evil adversary. If he no longer has the strength to fight, his doom will soon come. Then their Deus Ex Machina, The old wrinkled mentor was ready to stop his former enemies. Our young challenger escaped, ready to complete his noble quest.

Can you imagine David Moyes playing Obi Wan Kenobi in an off-Broadway stage production of Star Wars? If not, maybe after Sunday. The outgoing West Ham manager knows he has no fight left, but holding on against the might of Manchester City could buy his young apprentice time to complete his task. After all the struggles he faced against City over the past year, could the final victory be for Moyes and his junior Mikel Arteta?

It makes for a great story, but in the real world it feels more plausible as fiction than as fact. West Ham, who have nothing to play for other than their outgoing manager’s ego, have a terrible record against City. There is a reason why Moyes is leaving the club he led to European glory 12 months ago. His team hasn’t been particularly good this season. Especially in recent months, it has become clear that the board’s will to hold on to a man who has divided opinion among the fan base is quickly waning.

Since the comeback win at Arsenal on December 28, West Ham have taken just 19 points from 18 games. The 41 goals they have given up are more than Burnley, and the expected goals (xG) they have given up is also 36.7, which is more than Burnley. Primary metrics in the second half of the season followed the first half of the season, leading to second half results in the second half of the season.

Nonetheless, Pep Guardiola is finding cause for concern. In his post-match press conference at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, he revisited the blown title he had against Aston Villa on several occasions. “This game will be completely similar to the emotions in every way.” The City boss said: His identification of West Ham’s big strengths seems like a good starting point for our investigation into how West Ham can deliver the title to Arsenal.

West Ham’s dead ball master

“Now it’s (Mohammed) Quddus, (Jarod) Bowen, (Mikhail) Antonio, (James) Ward-Prowse and (Thomas) Soucek,” Guardiola said. “Set piece. Channel.” Put your personal talents on hold for a while. Of particular interest are dead balls. In the end, West Ham’s great European journey was helped by them hitting a corner and sending a free-kick into the penalty area, where Moyes’ men outmaneuvered their opponents and easily headed the ball home. Even in the land of giants called the Premier League, West Ham stands tall.

So far this season, only three teams have created more xG from non-penalty set pieces than the Hammers’ 14.2. Free-kicks are a particular strength for Moyes’ side, who are home to England’s most accurate right-footers since David Beckham and James Ward-Prowse. Those with a knowledge of the art of set pieces tend to emphasize that there is more to the 29-year-old’s success than the many hours he has devoted to his craft on the training ground. His ball striking, the way he naturally steps, these are natural tools that allow him to hit the ball fiercely with the top of his foot.

Concede a free kick in the channel and all you can really do is hope that the ball, flying at such great speed and speed, hits your team and the ball deflects towards safety. For example, against Aston Villa in March, this delivery caused complete panic that resulted in the ball ending up in the net and a buzzing sound around the ball, leading to it being ruled out.

Ward-Prowse may not have scored from a free kick this season. Although bending a corner against Wolves wasn’t too shabby as an alternative, no one is giving their teammates more chances. Kieran Trippier, Bruno Fernandes, Alfie Doughty and Martin Odeegard are second in the Premier League with nine free kick chances created. Ward-Prowse has 16. He has 1.62 expected assists from free kicks. Only two other players at the top have one. If Manchester City concede a free kick in the final third they will be under threat.

When facing West Ham last August, most teams, including Manchester City, decided to defend Ward-Prowse’s delivery by setting up a defensive line on the edge of the penalty area. That may go some way to limiting the direct threat of the first ball into the box, but the Hammers have the height to beat it and create knockdowns for others.

In true Moyezian fashion, there is no complexity for complexity’s sake in the way West Ham attack dead balls. They will adjust. It would take them to a draw with Tottenham earlier this year when Jarrod Bowen infamously dropped delivery after delivery right in front of Guglielmo Vicario. But mostly they are seen as a team targeting key positions just inside. Use a six-yard box and trust Kurt Zouma and Tomas Soucek to do the rest.

This could bode well for Stefan Ortega, who will join the City XI with Ederson sidelined with an orbital fracture. The German has proven to be one of the Premier League’s best back-ups this season and is the hero of the hour as he blocked Son Heung-min to secure victory at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium. However, in the small sample size of crosses he has faced this season, Ortega does not fall into the mold of Emiliano Martinez and David Raya as a resilient, off-the-line cross collector. He handled Ben White-style blockers well, but his punches to clear crosses against Real Madrid and Crystal Palace were less than convincing. Beyond that, City’s number two hasn’t faced many teams trying to monster him from set pieces. Luton were lucky not to score when he faced the sort of opportunity that Zouma is very good at getting his head down on.

But Ortega will be protected by one of the Premier League’s best set-piece defenses. City have conceded just two dead ball goals and a league-high 5.9 xG this season. The sky’s the limit when Ward-Prowses and Fernandes have enough of the ball that there’s only one or two set pieces to test. But watch out for the most dangerous chances they face and City have good qualities to apply enough pressure. On the ball. Add in Ruben Dias’ willingness to throw himself in front of anything and you have a pretty effective dead ball defense.

This may be one of the points where West Ham’s strengths do not mesh well with Manchester City’s defensive profile. However, this is not the case elsewhere.

threat of counterattack

Unless your vision of a West Ham goal in the Moyes era involves Zouma or Soucek going up high from a set piece, it almost certainly involves Jarrod Bowen flying in behind the opposition defence. The Irons’ five minutes of defense, which saw the goalkeeper go home one-on-one, quickly turned into a valuable goal. No team in the Premier League has surpassed West Ham’s nine counter-attacking goals this season, with only Alexander Isak scoring more goals from fast breaks than Bowen’s four.

Huge returns on breaks are typical of what this team does well. Moyes has played a full season at the club in four years, with his side ranked in the top 10 overall in counter-attacking goals and his total of 22 goals behind Jurgen Klopp’s Liverpool.

There have been instances this season, and throughout Moyes’ four years in charge, when West Ham have gone on a bit of a streak in front of goal as they have been flying down the pitch. Nine of his goals this season have come at 6.6 xG, and overall over four years he has made up 83 breakaways that have ended with shots worth 16.6 xG. Some of the outperformance may be continuity, but I wonder if there is more to it when there are four years of data to consider. After all, throughout that period West Ham had the following players: charming In counter-attacking football. Whether it’s Antonio’s strength, Bowen’s left-foot accuracy or Lucas Paqueta’s quality of service, this is a team built to get hotter on the break.

That’s going to come up against something that’s not as effective in preventing churn as you might think. There are obvious reasons why City may face a disproportionate number of counters. When their build-up play forces every player on the opposition team into their own third, Guardiola’s wide attacks will mostly look like counters. This season, these movements have become more regular. No team in the Premier League has conceded more breakaway goals than City’s eight.

Take Alexander Isaac’s bent strike at St James’ Park earlier this year as an example. But as Son Heung-min proved on Tuesday night, there are vulnerabilities that need to be examined when City concede possession. Rodri’s more attacking positioning over the last two seasons has given his team real opportunities to stop attacks at their source, but they can break through and City can only make mistakes. This is especially true with the wide full-backs Kyle Walker and Joskora playing up and down the pitch more. Gvardiol.

Aggravated by Gvardiol in the game against Crystal Palace above Stones’ loose free, he was very impressive in the second half of the season when he jumped from a back three to pressure Jordan Ayew. The Palace No.9 laid the ball back to Adam Wharton, who had the quality to immediately put Jean-Phillipe Mateta in behind. For Oliver Glasner’s Crystal Palace, that means only goals at Selhurst Park.

The same thing happened early in the campaign at the London Stadium. Gvardiol was dragged off the line, nutmegged by Bowen and Vladimir Coufal was released with enough space to elude Jeremy Doku and get his head up to slot a cross to the back post and Ward-Prowse.

West Ham may have a chance. Certainly they are turning up with more regularity than they did at the start of City’s four competitions. In 2020-21, Guardiola’s side conceded 13 shots on goal, 1.6 xG and 1 goal to teams on the counter. Last year, those numbers were 25, 3.4, and 3. There are now fewer openings but good quality chances with the opposition converting 19 shots and 3.6 xG into 8 breakaway goals.

That’s where the Death Star’s exhaust pipes are. A small rebel strike force is ready to breach the hole. One final act from one of the Premier League’s old greats would be enough to end this season on a surprising note.