In an interview with Stuart Brown, editor of EUROPP: Anand Menon We discuss whether the EU and UK can cope with the challenges posed by a second presidency of Donald Trump.
What should Europe expect from Trump’s second presidency?
Simple answer, it’s unexpected. I think we’re in a situation where Trump himself feels like he doesn’t know what he’s going to do, so I don’t think there’s any reason why we should know either. It will be unpredictable and perhaps contradictory. It will be a very difficult journey.
Europe must prepare for the worst without necessarily expecting it. At worst, it means tariffs. This means that America’s security guarantees have been weakened. This is all worth talking about, especially when it comes to security.
Over the next few decades, the United States will play a diminished role in European security, regardless of who is in the White House. In a sense, this is what we should be doing anyway. Trump is so impulsive that you don’t know what he’s going to do all day, which only adds to a certain sense of urgency.
You mentioned the potential impact on trade. Is the EU market big enough to protect itself from tariffs?
The EU is probably big enough to protect itself from Trump’s tariffs. I’m not sure that’s the case in the UK. In some ways, one of the things Trump is showing us is that outside the European Union, Britain is quite exposed to these difficult times.
The EU market is large enough to at least allow for meaningful retaliation if tariffs are imposed. If the US imposes tariffs on us, it is not easy for the UK to retaliate. And if we get to a situation where the UK is trying to negotiate a special agreement to avoid those tariffs, I think that will have implications for our relationship with our EU partners. So there may certainly be difficult choices ahead of us.
The role of big tech and social media companies in Trump’s success has received a lot of attention. Do the EU and UK have enough leverage to take on these companies on issues such as fact-checking and online misinformation?
I think the EU has leverage in that it is a very large market and a market that these companies are very keen to be a part of. The question is whether the EU has the political will and the cohesion to achieve this. This is a slightly different question. And again, that question could be raised about Britain.
What’s very interesting is that the day after Trump’s inauguration, we saw the British Home Secretary Yvette Cooper and the Prime Minister criticizing tech companies for some of the disinformation that was being spread around the Southport murders.
It was a very interesting tone that they struck because they seemed to be saying that no matter what Elon Musk’s connection to the White House may be, there are certain standards that we want to adhere to here to protect our citizens. We’ll see if it survives first contact despite any pushback from the Trump administration. But I thought it was interesting that they took that tone.
Can President Trump give Europe a chance?
There are several potential opportunities. One is that if Trump’s America becomes an unwelcome place for certain types of industries, especially those involved in the green transition, Europe may become a more attractive home for some. Additionally, if the United States protects itself with high tariff walls, there may be some displacement of economic activity. In some ways this may be beneficial for the EU, but it may also have negative consequences globally.
I also think we can learn some interesting lessons about politics from watching Trump. We have a situation where a majority of the American people voted for the destroyer because the old system didn’t work. And I think this requires training at home. If training is needed at home, this is the message the government needs to convey for its citizens. Otherwise, people will turn away and look for insurgent alternatives that will benefit no one in the medium to long term but could seriously disrupt our politics and economy.
Anand Menon spoke before the LSE event. Leadership or Drift: What’s next for U.S. foreign policy? – Hosted by the Phelan United States Center.
Note: This article gives the views of the interviewees and does not represent the position of EUROPP (European Politics and Policy) or the London School of Economics. Main image source: fatu /Shutterstock.com
