In the meantime, the analysts wondered if President Vladimir Putin would force his brother to put his army into war. That doesn’t happen yet. Thank you God.
Why didn’t Kremlin tried to twist the arms? Perhaps they had to consider the fact that AlexSander Lukashenka did not have a lot of well -trained troops (his special forces consist of just thousands of people). They will not make a difference. And sending them to the front can make Belarus’s “stability” anxious.
Lukashenka was probably able to persuade Moscow that Belarus was better used as a supplier of military and private purposes at the time of sanctions. And as a country that prepares for military maneuver and enforces Ukraine to switch some of the army.
In a private conversation, it is perfectly possible to assume that Putin has heard from his younger brother that the Belarusians are reluctant to fight with the Ukrainians (this is very clear in the poll). If soldiers actually put them into battle, they could surrender and move on to the other side. And when a convoy with a corpse begins to arrive, the whole country will burn.
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Whatever the truth is, Lukashenka has a powerful Trump card in hand. He has become a wise and powerful guarantor of a peaceful sky on the head of the Belarusian people. If the “nationalist fighter” won in 2020, the state propaganda that the state will already be in war is hovering in their heads. As can be seen from the independent polls, this acts on some of the voters. This is especially true if most ordinary citizens are cut off from public media resources that are not favorable to the authorities.
The co -perpetrator tries to sit in two chairs.
At the same time, Belarus’s ruler is trying to sit in two chairs. On the other hand, he must continue to prove that he is a faithful allies of Moscow to receive carrots. The war has held the opportunity to successfully sell sanctions in the Russian market, where the Belarusian economy is struggling with sanctions, and successfully sell sanctions in the greedy Gunsan complex in Russia. But this situation is unstable, and the entire confusion is, of course, the cause of tension in Minsk.
Lukashenka, on the other hand, is the reason why he wants to prepare for soft landing regardless of the consequences of war. He even restrained slightly because his propaganda has abused Ukraine too much. He repeatedly reminded his subordinates, “We will have to restore our relationship with Ukraine soon.” He even plans to participate in the post -war reconstruction of neighboring countries, which raises the sarcastic sound of Ukrainian critics.
It should be said that the war worsened the Ukrainian attitude toward the entire Belaru poet, as well as the Lukashenka and his regime. Their reputation was maintained by KASTUS KALINOUSKI Regiment, a combat unit composed of Velorusi volunteers.
The ice began to move thanks to the efforts of the Belarusian opponents, volunteers, experts, and Belarusian external media, who are trying to show that the Lucachenka regime and the Belarusian people are not the same.
However, Kiev continues to expand cooperation with the Belarusian democratic forces and continue to recognize the special needs to arrange the talks between President Bolodimir Jellenski Ukraine and the Belarusian Coordination Committee Chairman Svsatlan and Chicanowskaya. This has a skeptical view of the potential of Belarusian political immigration.
Any place in the Ukrainian talks will be a place for Lukashenka.
Lukashenka clearly wants to secure his place at the final peace talks for Ukraine. He recently missed his desire several times. He was irritated by the attempts of political opponents who were arrested by the Hague International Criminal Court and deprived the opportunity to “remove him from the stage of political activity.”
Belarusian rulers may have been stressed by the prospect of Moscow’s understanding of the West (mostly the US) to reach the local situation and the new kind of Yalta agreement and ignore the interests of Lukashenka. What do they say about trying to deal with tributaries?
But for the speakers of the Belarus democratic forces, it was believed that Belarus’ fate was determined in Ukraine. If Ukraine wins and Russia is seriously weakened, the opportunity to change will open to us.
In the election, Donald Trump’s victory argued that he would force Zel Renski to forcibly sign peace on the condition of disadvantages to Kiev. Lukashenka approached this problem in the opposite direction. He began to praise a lot, hoping that the presidential election could make some deals with him.
But for Trump, the Belarusi problem will definitely not be the center of his interest. Overall, the West tends to consider Lukasenka as the puppet of the Kremlin. Why do you sit the puppet at the peace talks?
In all this, the role of Lukashenka depends on whether Trump can sign a deal with Kremlin.
It is still unlikely that representatives of the Belarus Democratic Forces will attend the Ukrainian issue.
Kalinouski Regiment, which is advanced to Minsk -Now is a dream like a dream
The armed rebellion scenario for regime change has gained popularity among opposition Lukasenka since the peace uprising was suppressed in 2020. In particular, there was a great hope in the Kalinusky Regiment. There are romantics who dreamed of winning the victory of solidarity in Minsk.
Such scenarios are not realistic. The most important thing is that Ukraine keeps the front line. If you have no choice but to conclude a ceasefire agreement as part of a military confrontation, it is likely that a serious internal political crisis in Korea will come. What did you bleed for? To be honest, Belarus will not be a problem.
Even if a miracle occurs and the Ukraine was able to restore the 1991 border (even the most enthusiastic fantasy, even the most enthusiastic fantasy does not dream of the Ukrainian tank marches the red square), this does not mean the end of the war. Kremlin will never be reconciled to such a situation.
Kiev will be a troublesome thing even if he doesn’t think of liberating Belarus from dictatorship. The Kalinouski Regiment is an army under the control of the Ukrainian Defense Ministry.
So, of course, solidarity will continue to be used for the benefit of Ukraine (although this is not doubtful of soldiers’ patriotism). We can see how KYIV tries not to bother Lukashenka in the name of these interests and maintains contact with him behind him.
The Belarusians, with political ambitions and military experiences, formed a movement called “Kalinochi” to be separated from the Kalinusky Regiment, but so far they have not appeared in any way.
Whatever it happens, you must face the harsh reality. For both Washington and the European Union, Belarus’ sovereignty and democratization are not priority, but it is mild.
There is no miracle unification of democratic forces, focusing on a kind of strategy for liberal liberation. The appointment of Vadim Kabanchuk, former deputy commander of the Kalinouski Regiment, to Tsikhanouskaya’s cabinet did not get visible results in this direction.
Of course, if Lukashenka’s authority is in a serious crisis, armed elements for regime change may be very important and even a decisive role. But in order to happen, various conditions must be met not only in Korea but also in the surrounding area.
Whatever it happens, the decisive factor is regarded as a weakening of Russia. And this greatly depends on how much the West will support Ukraine.
Many analysts believe that the United States is not interested in overly weakening Russia’s complete collapse. Above all, there is a fear that Russian nuclear weapons can be overwhelmed in good faith and the hope that Moscow can be used for struggles with China.
Trump’s power further amplifies uncertainty. The US policy can be shaken in any direction.
Dictatorship is a problem that Belarus people should organize themselves.
Whatever it happens, you must face the harsh reality. For both Washington and the European Union, Belarus’ sovereignty and democratization are not priority, but it is lightly expressed. Of course, Western politicians may express deep concerns, but in fact, many of them have already surrendered Belarus in their minds and put themselves in the fence with iron tabernacle.
As you can see, the West did not rush to support Ukraine. The US Marine Corps is much less likely to die for Belarus. There is nothing to be angry here. After all, blood is stronger than water.
For Kremlin, it should be remembered that Belarus is a very important strategic bridgehead. It is very convenient to threaten Ukraine and NATO countries in “Belarusi Balconi”. It is no coincidence that Putin had a “warfare” against Kiyf in Belarus in February 2022 and later deployed tactical nuclear weapons there.
Most of all, the existence of such tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus is a convenient role in Russia to suddenly invade when the “color revolution” occurs there. ? ”
Lukashenka has been afraid of Moscow for many years if the enemies of Russians will happen if they win. There will be a NATO missile very close to Smallensk. By using their imperial instincts, he was somewhat successful in that field. The Russian leadership considers the change of Belarus’ regime and the loss of satellite countries as an existential threat.
In this way, the fear of the loss of Ukraine and the anti -NATO phobia combined to adopt an aggressive policy against Ukraine.
The empire was hit hard in Ukraine, and Belarus was in a trap of the empire. Evil is increasing now.
Everyone who craves the window of the invader and the window of change for Belarus will be almost comforting for primitive and cheering slogans. More appropriate at this moment is the British Winston Churchill, the British Winston Churchill, against the Nazi expansion in 1940. “I have nothing but blood, hard work, tears and sweat.”
In 1940, many people would have felt that they could not stop Hitler. But in the end, Britain and its allies won.
Today, the future of Belarus is hidden in the fog of the Russian-Ukrainian war.
In any case, it is important to keep in mind that there is no savior in high places. One day, there may be somewhat advantageous external conditions (not tomorrow), but in some ways, the dictatorship is a problem that the Belarusians must solve.
