The opinions expressed in this article are those of the author and do not in any way represent the editorial position of Euronews.
If Africa can find the confidence to set aside emotions and come up with rational business strategies, this could actually be a very profitable and peaceful four years, writes Ivor Ichikowitz.
advertisementIt is no exaggeration to say that the whole world is waiting with bated breath for the inauguration of the 47th President of the United States and the actions of President Donald Trump.
Africa is particularly enthusiastic, and for good reason.
The continent wasn’t in the spotlight the last time Trump was president. In fact, his attitude towards Africa was immortalized in a comment that quickly became a social media meme.
But as with many things about the 45th and 47th presidents of the United States, the man who will go down in history as the only president to serve non-consecutive terms in the White House since Grover Cleveland in 1892, it is wise to remember the context.
President Trump’s comments on Africa were not a general reference to the continent, but rather a response to an issue that is becoming an inflection point around the world, from the Global South to the industrial North: immigration.
Indeed, President Trump’s comments in 2018 will have eerie resonance, if not publicly, among many political leaders in our home country, South Africa.
Migration is a particularly big problem in Africa, as evidenced by subsequent editions of the unique biennial African Youth Survey since it was first published in 2020.
Problems are not binary, black and white (pun intended), so solutions must be more nuanced.
Ironically, it is precisely these nuances that many people ignore when approaching the Trump administration. There is no doubt that President Trump’s first term was destructive, sometimes intentionally, sometimes organically. It seems very different this time. The initial selection of public officials in his administration was a very signal statement of intent. Apart from the noise from commentators, there were real expectations that this government would be different.
I believe the same will be true for Africa.
The continent has much to offer, from its incredible mineral and human resources, including the world’s youngest population, to its global strategic importance in a multipolar society where the United States competes for influence with China and Russia.
But Africa relies heavily on the United States, especially in the form of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) and Pepfar, which has been one of the key pillars of fighting the HIV and AIDS epidemic in southern Africa.
Africa needs these programs to continue, but there is great concern that they will be discontinued.
I don’t believe they will. Instead, the White House will have very realistic and measurable expectations about the 47th administration’s return on investment.
Relationships that are meaningful and provide value
President Trump made no secret of this fact when he warned in December that punitive trade tariffs would be imposed on BRICS members if they attempted to de-dollarize their countries.
advertisementAnd whether it’s the White House or the State Department, there’s always been expectations in America. But these expectations have been tempered by diplomatic conventions and pressure to be kind to Africa. Postcolonial exploitation.
The Trump administration will not be burdened by polite conversation or the subtleties of historical guilt, but will instead act according to its own principles on the domestic and global stages.
We know what it is. Playing its role on the world stage while taking responsibility for others is no longer a priority for the United States when it is unable to care for its own citizens in the way expected.
This will have an immediate impact on the trade balance, the reindustrialization of the United States, and indeed the acceptance of immigrants who require support from the U.S. government.
advertisementAs America looks beyond our borders in this administration, it will be based on relationships that make sense and provide value to the United States.
This relationship will no longer be one-sided at the expense of the American people, which will of course have significant implications for countries willing to cooperate with the United States.
This may be particularly difficult in Africa and South Africa because of the country’s professed policy of non-alignment, which has become a growing point of contention among some U.S. senators.
The Ukraine war is a representative example. South Africa is ostensibly seeking a resolution to the war while maintaining extremely friendly relations with the administration of Russian President Vladimir Putin, including categorically refusing to vote against Russia at the United Nations General Assembly.
advertisementPresident Trump’s rise to power and his intention to end this war could make South Africa’s previous position very useful to the White House.
The same can be said about Pretoria’s stance on the Middle East, especially its increasingly overt hostility towards Israel. In contrast to Trump’s apparent stance toward Hamas, he effectively provides an ultimatum via social media to release all remaining hostages before his inauguration.
Although these conflicts are not limited to Africa, the U.S. impact to stop them will be felt on the continent. This is especially true for Russia, which is currently the largest arms supplier to African rulers who bypass democratic processes.
Don’t Underestimate Donald Trump
I believe the Trump administration’s attitude toward Africa will ultimately be a mix of pragmatism, business sense, and altruism.
advertisementWar is costly and leads to instability that reverberates across the seas and ultimately into the Land of the Free as the Statue of Liberty is forced to welcome another wave of unwanted refugees.
It makes business sense to keep people in their countries rather than flee to the United States.
And the best business is business itself, trade, which is unsustainable in times of conflict. This is one reason why President Trump’s victory was welcomed on both sides of the Middle East conflict, if not among commentators. Those on the ground remember a time, unlike now, just four years ago, when peace seemed like a generational reality.
People around the world, especially Americans, continue to make the mistake of underestimating Donald Trump. He’s a tough negotiator, but he’s a businessman. If Africa can find the confidence to put emotions aside and make rational business proposals, this could indeed be a profitable and peaceful four years.
advertisementIvor Ichikowitz is an African industrialist and philanthropist.
