The road to the Super Bowl passes through Kansas City. The Chiefs, who dispatched the Houston Texans, will participate in the AFC Championship game for the seventh consecutive year. They are now just two wins away from the greatest achievement of the Super Bowl era: their third championship. Standing in their way is the Buffalo Bills, who defeated the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night and now have a chance to dethrone the two-time champions.
In the NFC, the Commanders shocked the world by upsetting the Detroit Lions on Saturday night, and will look to repeat the feat next weekend against the Philadelphia Eagles, who took down the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday.
Jeff Howe previously analyzed the conference championship game matchup. athleticThe NFL projection model created by Austin Mock shows each remaining team’s odds of winning the Super Bowl.
AFC
#1 Kansas City Chiefs (15-2, 1-0 playoffs) vs. No. 2 Buffalo Bills (13-4, 2-0 playoffs)
The power of the AFC will remain unwavering this season as the Chiefs and Bills meet on the AFC Championship Game stage for the second time in four years.
The Bills wrapped up the showdown with a thrilling 27-25 win over the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday evening. Quarterback Josh Allen went 16-of-22 for 127 yards with two rushing scores to help the Bills star edge out fellow MVP candidate Lamar Jackson and stave off Baltimore’s comeback bid.
The Chiefs were somewhat shaky in their postseason debut, but held off Texas by a decisive 23-14 margin despite the visitors outscoring them in yards, time of possession, first downs and third down conversions. That’s because defense (8 sacks, 14 QB hits) and special teams still carry a lot of weight, and the Chiefs are the most balanced team in those areas.
As previously mentioned, the Chiefs are trying to become the first team in history to win three consecutive Super Bowls. They have hoisted the Lombardi Trophy three times since coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes teamed up.
It hasn’t been an explosive season for Mahomes, who had more passing games under 200 yards (five) than over 300 yards (three), including the divisional round. But he hasn’t made a mistake, recording 13 touchdowns (one rushing) since his last interception two months ago.
Mahomes also has 15 touchdowns against just two interceptions in six AFC Championship Games (both losses to the Cincinnati Bengals). In fact, the Chiefs haven’t had a single turnover in their last eight games. That will be the focus Sunday against the Bills, who recorded three takeaways against the Ravens and forced multiple turnovers in 11 of 19 games this season.
Mahomes didn’t get much help. His offensive tackles were terrible. At least when left guard Joe Thuney isn’t moonlighting at left tackle. And his skill players have been in and out of the lineup due to injuries.
But he still has Travis Kelce, who just recorded the ninth 100-yard game of his playoff career. The 35-year-old future Pro Football Hall of Famer’s production dropped significantly during the regular season, but Kelce was as dominant as ever in the playoffs. He has had at least 70 yards in 14 consecutive postseason games, averaging 99.1 yards per outing during that span. He also led the league in touchdowns in four of the last five postseasons.
Still, the NFL’s modern dynasty will face one question all week long. Can Allen be stopped?
Allen completed 63.6% of his passes for 3,731 yards, 28 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions during the regular season, while adding 531 rushing yards and 12 scores.
Allen went 27-of-40 for 262 yards, one touchdown and one interception as the Bills beat the Chiefs 30-21 in Week 11. He added 55 rushing yards, including a 26-yard touchdown on a pivotal fourth-and-2. This was the Chiefs’ only loss this season with Mahomes as the starter, and it may have been the game that sparked Allen’s MVP campaign.
The Chiefs are 6-3 in the AFC Championship in the Super Bowl era, including 4-2 against Mahomes, and the Bills are 4-3. The Chiefs went 4-2 in the playoffs against the Bills, their third straight win in the last four years.
• Chiefs’ Super Bowl odds: 30.1%
• Bills’ odds of winning the Super Bowl: 25.5%
Chances of winning the Super Bowl
|
team |
multiplication |
|---|---|
|
33.5% |
|
|
30.1% |
|
|
25.5% |
|
|
11% |
NFC
#2 Philadelphia Eagles (14-3, 2-0 playoffs) vs. No. 6 Washington Commanders (12-5, 2-0 playoffs)
The NFC North has held the crown all season, but the NFC East is chasing the ring.
The Eagles and Commanders meet in the NFC Championship Game after splitting their regular season series. The Commanders won 36-33 at home in their most recent meeting in Week 16. The Eagles needed a fourth quarter comeback to beat the Commanders 26. Week 11 is -18, so both games are over.
The Eagles may want to take an asterisk for the loss because quarterback Jalen Hurts was ruled out early with a concussion, but the 33 points were their sixth-highest output of the season behind a strong Kenny Pickett performance. The much more important story is that the Eagles failed to win the turnover battle despite being outscored 5-2.
So what happens if the Eagles can’t get enough takeaways in the third installment? Perhaps that’s a moot point as they had a slim 1-0 advantage in takeaways in their previous win. It’s rare that sales don’t make a difference to both outcomes.
Still, commanders may not want to test that theory any further. The Eagles forced 30 turnovers in their last 13 games, including two unforced errors during a crucial second half, as they eliminated the Los Angeles Rams 28-22 in the divisional round.
deeper
The Commanders won the Super Bowl. Let it marinate for a while
Daniels led the Commanders’ offense to play at an elite level during two road wins in the playoffs. They scored on 11 of their 16 possessions and punted only once, excluding the sequence to close the half. They turned it over on downs three times (a net positive risk-reward formula), but had no interceptions or lost fumbles. They also missed a field goal.
Daniels’ leadership was remarkable in all situations. The rookie has the clutch genes to help with game-winning drives this season, but Daniels did an impressive job keeping the pressure on the top-seeded Lions Saturday night, allowing the Commanders to score on four of five possessions: led. Detroit score. The exception was a missed field goal, so Daniels kept the ball moving as the Lions tried to make a run.
Daniels will need to be great to lead the Commanders to their first Super Bowl in 33 years, and the evidence suggests he will rise to that challenge. He passed for 1,522 yards, 17 touchdowns and four interceptions during the seven-game winning streak, while adding 422 yards and a score on the ground. But three of Daniels’ nine interceptions this season have come against the Eagles.
Hurts and the Eagles’ passing attack have been pedestrian since returning from a concussion. He has 259 passing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff wins, but only 106 yards and one score as a rusher. As a result, wide receivers AJ Brown (3 catches for 24 yards) and DeVonta Smith (8 catches for 76 yards) failed to make much of an impact.
But have no fear, the Eagles are still chasing Saquon Barkley. The best offseason additions in the league were 324 rushing yards and two touchdowns in two playoff games, as he hasn’t slowed down since a tough regular season.
These teams have one postseason meeting, with Washington playing in a wild-card matchup on January 5, 1991. The Commanders are 90-86-6 in the all-time series.
The Commanders are 5-1 and the Eagles are 4-4 in conference championships in the Super Bowl era.
• Eagles’ odds of winning the Super Bowl: 33.5%
• Commander’s Chance to Win Super Bowl: 11%
(Photo by Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen: Ryan Kang / Getty Images)
