From 27-year-old Taylor Fritz cracking the top five to 17-year-old Mirra Andreeva cracking the top 20, the biggest question for 2025 ahead of the 2024 season is whether these rising stars will reach the most prestigious summit. Whether it is possible or not. Winner’s Circle.
The point, of course, is that Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner have won half of the men’s Grand Slams, three ATP Finals and Masters 1000 titles over the past two years. Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka, Iga Swiatek and Coco Gauff have won eight of the last 11 women’s Slams, the last two WTA finals and 10 titles. 16 WTA 1000 titles.
“And I don’t think they’re going anywhere,” said ESPN analyst Mary Joe Fernández. Sinner is 23 years old and Alcaraz is 21 years old. Sabalenka is 26 years old, Swiatek is 23 years old and Gauff is 20 years old.
“Players are knocking on the door and there’s a ton of excitement, but there are also some question marks,” said Tennis Channel analyst Tracy Austin. “And now the question is whether they will be overwhelmed by expectations.”
ESPN analyst Patrick McEnroe said that just a few years ago, these expectations were placed on Alexander Zverev, Stefanos Tsitsipas and Daniil Medvedev, but Medvedev is the only one of the three to win a slam at the 2021 US Open. Tsitsipas dropped out of the top ten.
Tennis Channel analyst Paul Annacone said he did not believe Sinner and Alcaraz were as good players as Djokovic, Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. “I wouldn’t be surprised if an outsider wins a major this year.”
Annacone works with Fritz, who reached the final of the 2024 US Open and is ranked in the top five. Annacone and McEnroe said Fritz has the best chance of success this year. Winning in the semifinals and finals “depends on the mental aspect and how well you manage the moment. Taylor plays very well in key moments,” Annacone said.
But McEnroe believes Alcaraz and Sinner are generational talents. He called Fritz an “amazing competitor” but didn’t expect him to win a Slam this year. (If Sinner appeals his doping case and is suspended, the whole equation changes.)
McEnroe said of world No. 9 Alex de Minore (25) that he is likely to be downgraded as he is “less accurate and less flexible” than No. 6 Casper Ruud (26).
His position is jeopardized by Jack Draper (23), Lorenzo Musetti (22) and Arthur Fils (20), who were all in the top 20 last year.
“Draper is getting stronger. If he’s healthy, he has the biggest advantage in firepower and movement,” McEnroe said. “Fils is an explosive player all over the court with the kind of maxi he likes for a young player. The question is whether he can be consistent enough.”
This reminds me of Ben Shelton. His skill, athleticism, and talent earned him a top-20 finish in 2023 at the age of 20 and a run to the semifinals of the U.S. Open. McEnroe said he plateaued last year because he was still inconsistent. “He needs to play more solid and predictable tennis.”
Annacone sees the future of these players as top 10 players, but France’s Fils and England’s Draper face additional challenges as rising stars in countries hosting a Grand Slam and desperate for homegrown heroes.
“They’re going to be in a fishbowl now, and their expectations are going to be exponentially different,” he explained.
But the top 10 is far from the best. “If I were to bet, I’d say none of them would win a Grand Slam,” McEnroe said. He put his money on 18-year-old Brazilian player Joao Fonseca, who he said had plenty of potential despite not being ranked in the top 100 yet.
Women are more likely to have new champions. Jasmine Paolini, 29, rose from No. 30 to No. 4 last year, winning a WTA 1000 and reaching two Grand Slam finals.
“When I was younger, I didn’t think I could win a major, but now I have confidence,” Austin said. “But we’ll see if she can compete against the biggest hitters every week.”
Fernández said Paolini’s improved fitness may prevent her from displacing the three women above her. Paolini is excellent at capitalizing on opportunities, but Fernández said his best performances are not the same as those of Sabalenka, Swiatek or Gauff.
Austin said Qinwen Zheng, who won Olympic gold in 2024 and finished the season in fifth place, was the most immediate prospect.
“She is playing more freely since the Olympics.” Austin said. “She has a tremendous serve and from her experience last year, she can be a big factor.”
Fernández said Zheng, 22, has a heavier topspin forehand than most women, giving her another weapon. “I have no doubt she can threaten the top three.”
Austin said 23-year-old Emma Navarro, who jumped from No. 38 to No. 8 in the class of 2024, has improved her movement and mixes deep balls with deft drop shots. Fernández added that Navarro handled the jump from college to lower-level tournaments to the Grand Slams seamlessly. “What stands out is how calm she is,” Fernández said. “There is no change in her emotions.”
Austin also said he believed Diana Schneider, 20, who rose from world No. 60 to 12, could crack the top 10. “She’s hitting big on the run and feeling good,” Austin said. “And she’s left-handed, which is a huge advantage.”
Even more impressive is Andreeva in 16th place. In addition to her talent, Fernández also praised the addition of Conchita Martínez as Andreeva’s coach.
“Conchita helped her stay calm and less reactive,” Fernández said. “I wouldn’t be surprised if Andreeva does something special in 2025.”
Still, obstacles remain for young talent. “The element of surprise is gone and people are learning the game,” Fernández said.
Austin added that success has created opportunities for media attention and support. “You have to learn how to manage your tennis game and do the same off the court.”
