Iran’s top general in Syria said in a very candid speech last week that Iran had suffered a major defeat but would still attempt to operate, contradicting the official line taken by Iranian leaders over the sudden fall of ally Bashar al-Assad. nation.
An audio recording of a speech given last week by Brig. Gen. Behrouz Esvati’s public appearance in Iranian media on Monday at a Tehran mosque was in sharp contrast to statements by Iran’s president, foreign minister and other top leaders. They have for weeks underestimated the scale of the strategic loss Iran suffered in Syria when rebels ousted President al-Assad last month, and have said Tehran would respect whatever political outcome the Syrian people decide.
“I don’t think losing Syria is something to be proud of,” General Esvati said, according to a recording of the speech released Monday by Abdi Media, a Geneva-based news site focused on Iran. “We lost, we lost very badly. We were hit very hard and it was very difficult.”
General Esvati said relations between Iran and al-Assad had been strained for months before his ouster, and the Syrian leader said he had rejected several requests by Iran-backed militias to open a front against Israel in Syria. Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023.
Iran presented al-Assad with a comprehensive military plan on how Iran’s military resources in Syria could be used to attack Israel, he said.
He also accused Russia, considered a top ally, of misleading Iran by saying Russian jets were bombing Syrian rebels when in fact they were dropping bombs on open fields. He also said that when Israel attacked Iranian targets in Syria last year, Russia “turned off its radar” and in effect facilitated those attacks.
For more than a decade, Iran has supported President al-Assad by sending commanders and troops to fight opposition rebels and the Islamic State (IS) terrorist group.
Under al-Assad, Syria was Iran’s regional command center, supplying weapons and money to a network of local militias, including Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Palestinian militants in the West Bank. Iran also controlled Syria’s airports and warehouses and operated missile and drone manufacturing sites.
The rebel coalition now takes control of most of Syria and is trying to form a government. General Esvati said in his speech that Iran would look for ways to recruit rebels in any form of new Syria.
“We can revitalize all the networks we have been working with for many years,” he said. “We can revitalize the social hierarchy that our people have lived with for years. We can be active on social media and form resistance cells.”
“Now we can operate there as we do in other international arenas, and we have already started,” he added.
The general’s remarks surprised Iranians due to their unfiltered content and the stature of the speaker. He has a history of holding prominent roles, including the Supreme Commander of the Iranian Armed Forces, which encompasses the military and the Revolutionary Guards, and Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces’ Cyber Division.
In Syria, he oversaw Iran’s military operations and worked closely with the Syrian minister, defense ministry officials and Russian generals. This is a higher rank than that of General Ismail Ghani, commander of the Quds Force, which oversees a network of local militias backed by Iran.
Mehdi Rahmati, a prominent Tehran analyst and expert on Syria, said in a telephone interview that General Esvati’s speech was significant. This is because it shows that some senior officials are moving away from government propaganda and aligning themselves with the public.
“Everyone is talking about the speech at the conference and wondering why he said this,” Mr. Rahmati said. “Especially in a public forum.” “He explained very clearly what happened to Iran and where it is now. “In some ways, it could be a warning about domestic politics,” he said.
General Esvati said the fall of the Assad regime was inevitable given the economic challenges facing the people, including rampant corruption, political repression, lack of power, lack of fuel and livable income. He said President al-Assad had ignored warnings about reforms. Mr. Rahmati, the analyst, said it was difficult to miss the comparison with the current situation in Iran.
Despite the general’s claims of revitalizing the network, it remains unclear what Iran can realistically do in Syria, given the public and political opposition it faces there and the difficulties of land and air access. Israel has warned that if Iranian activity is detected in Syria, it will be destroyed.
And while Iran has experience operating in Iraq, including stoking unrest after the 2003 U.S. invasion, Syria’s geography and political landscape are vastly different and pose more challenges.
A member of Iran’s Revolutionary Guards who spent years as a military strategist working with senior commanders in Iraq said in a phone interview that General Esvati’s comments about Iran recruiting rebels may be more ambitious than practical at this stage. He said General Esvati, while acknowledging a serious defeat, had tried to boost morale and calm conservatives demanding stronger action from Iran.
A Guard official, who asked that his name not be used because he is discussing a sensitive issue, said Iran’s policy had not yet been finalized but that an agreement had emerged at a meeting he attended to discuss strategy. He said Iran would benefit if Syria falls into chaos because it knows how to prosper and secure its interests in turbulent environments.
In Iran, the Revolutionary Guards have the authority to set regional policy and control the Foreign Ministry.
Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, who has the final say on key national issues, has said in at least two speeches since al-Assad’s fall that Syria’s resistance is not dead, adding that Syria’s youth will take their country back from ruling rebels. , which he called the Stooges of Israel and America. President Massoud Fezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi took a more conciliatory stance, saying they favored stability in Syria and diplomatic relations with the new government.
Tensions surrounding these conflicting views on Syria have so gripped officials that they launched a damage control campaign with the public last week. Senior military commanders and experts close to the government spoke to audiences at mosques and community centers in several cities and took questions and answers.
General Esvati’s speech, held at the Baliasr Mosque in central Tehran on December 31, was addressed to soldiers and members of the mosque, according to a public notice for the event titled “Answering questions about Syria’s collapse.”
The session began with General Esvati telling the crowd that he had left Syria on the last military plane to Tehran the night before Damascus fell to rebels. It ended with answering questions from the audience. He gave the most sobering assessment of Iran’s military capabilities in the war against Israel and the United States.
Asked whether Iran would retaliate for Israel’s killing of Hezbollah’s longtime leader Hassan Nasrallah, he said Iran had already retaliated and cited missile strikes last fall. Asked whether Iran was planning a third direct attack on Israel, he said the “circumstances” currently do not realistically afford another attack on Israel.
Asked why Iran does not fire missiles at U.S. military bases in the region, he said doing so would lead the U.S. to launch greater retaliatory strikes against Iran and its allies. He also added that Iran’s non-advanced missiles cannot penetrate America’s advanced defense lines. system.
Despite that assessment, General Esvati said he wanted to make sure everyone didn’t worry. He said Iran and its allies still hold the upper hand in the region.
