When Donald J. Trump returned to the White House, much of the country thought they knew what was coming and how to prepare.
Diplomats in world capitals said they would focus less on what President Trump says and more on what his administration does. Larger countries have developed plans to mitigate or respond to the threat of punitive tariffs. Smaller countries hoped they could hide from the next four years of gale-force America First.
But it is becoming increasingly difficult for the world to remain calm and move on.
At a news conference at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday, President Trump did not rule out using force in potential land grabs in the Greenland and Panama Canals. He pledged to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to the ‘Gulf of America.’ He also said the U.S. could use its “economic power” to make Canada a 51st state due to national security concerns.
To those who tried to parse the content from the bravado, it seemed like another disorganized performance of bravado. The sequel, Trump II, was more unrestricted. Even before his inauguration, President Trump presented an incredible wish list, sparking comments from around the world saying, “Here we go again.”
But beyond small talk, there are serious risks. As the world prepares for Trump’s return, the parallels between his concerns and the distant era of American imperialism in the late 19th century are becoming increasingly relevant.
President Trump has already defended an era of protectionism, arguing that in the 1890s the United States “was probably the wealthiest country of all time because it was a tariff regime.” The focus now seems to be on the 19th and early 20th centuries. About territorial control.
What the two eras share is the fear of unstable geopolitics and the threat of being shut out of territories of great economic and military importance. Daniel Immerwahr, an American historian at Northwestern University, puts it this way: “We are seeing a return to a more complex world.”
To Mr. Trump, China appears ready to seize territory far from its own borders. He falsely accused China of controlling the US-built Panama Canal. There are also specters more grounded in the fact that China and its ally Russia are moving to secure control of Arctic sea routes and valuable minerals.
At the same time, competition is increasing overall as some countries rise (India, Saudi Arabia) and others struggle (Venezuela, Syria), creating opportunities for external influence.
Even in the 1880s and 1890s there was a struggle for control and there was no single dominant state. As nations became more powerful, they were expected to grow physically, and rivalries led to maps being redrawn and conflicts occurring from Asia to the Caribbean.
When the United States annexed Guam and Puerto Rico in 1898, it reflected European colonial designs. However, in larger countries such as the Philippines, the United States eventually opted for indirect control through negotiations to promote preferential treatment for American business and military interests.
Some believe that President Trump’s obsession with Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada has single-handedly revived the debate about his pursuit of expansionism.
“This is part of a pattern of the United States exercising or attempting to exert control over areas of the world that are perceived to be of American interest, without ever having to think of the scary words ‘empire,’ ‘colony,’ and ‘imperialism.’ It’s about exploitation for material gain,” said Ian Tyrrell, a historian of American empire at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.
President Trump’s threat to seize territory could simply be a starting point for a deal or a kind of personal wish. The United States has already signed an agreement with Denmark to allow base operations in Greenland.
There and elsewhere, his proposals for Americanization are seen by many foreign diplomats and scholars as an escalation rather than a break with the past. For years, the United States has tried to curtail China’s ambitions using a familiar playbook.
The Philippines is once again in focus with a new deal for bases that could be used by U.S. forces in a potential war with China. As climate change melts ice and makes navigation easier, so too do the most important maritime routes for trade around Asia and the Arctic.
“What America has always wanted was access to markets, networks of communication and the ability to predict the future of material power,” Professor Tyrrell said.
But especially in some places, the past as prologue inspires fear.
Panama and its neighbors tend to see Trump’s comments as a mix of the 1890s and 1980s. Due to the Cold War at the time, the United States intervened in many Latin American countries in the name of fighting communism. The Monroe Doctrine, another 19th-century creation that saw the United States treat the Western Hemisphere as its exclusive sphere of influence, has become relevant again along with tariffs and territorial deals.
Carlos Puig, a popular columnist in Mexico City, said Latin America was more worried about Trump’s return than anywhere else in the world.
“Trump, who has a majority in both houses of Congress, is someone who, after four years of complaining, only cares about himself and wins at any cost,” Mr. Puig said. “It’s not easy for someone like that not to show that he’s trying to keep his promises, no matter how crazy things he does. “I’m not sure if the whole thing is just harassment, almost comical provocation.”
But how much can Mr. Trump actually achieve or damage?
His press conference in Florida was a mix of vague threats (“You might have to do something”) and messianic promises (“I’m talking about protecting the free world”).
It was enough to awaken other countries, sparking passionate interest and resistance even before he took office.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot warned Wednesday against threatening the European Union’s “sovereign borders,” referring to Denmark’s territory of Greenland. He added, “We have entered an era in which the most powerful law returns.”
Something that may be harder to see in Mar-a-Lago but is much discussed in foreign capitals: Many countries are simply tired of an America that President Trump wants to make great again.
The United States is still the dominant power, but its influence is less than it was in the 1980s or 1890s. This is not only the rise of China, but the United States falling into insolvency and debt in many countries, and developments in other countries.
The international system the United States helped build after World War II prioritized trade to prevent conquest and was sufficiently effective in forging paths to prosperity that it made American unilateralism less powerful.
As Sarang Shidore, director of the Global South program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft in Washington, explains, many developing countries are “smarter, more proactive and more capable even as the United States has become less predictable and more stable.”
In other words, the world today is unstable. The post-war balance is shaken by wars in Europe and the Middle East. by the authoritarian partnership of China, Russia and North Korea; by a weakened Iran pursuing nuclear weapons; And by climate change and artificial intelligence.
The end of the 19th century was also a turbulent time. According to historians, the mistake President Trump is making now is thinking that adding to America’s real estate will calm and simplify the world.
The era of protectionism and imperialism that President Trump romanticizes exploded when Germany and Italy tried to join forces to take a larger share of the world. The result was two world wars.
“We saw how it related to 20th-century weapons,” said Mr. Immerwahr, author of “How to Hide an Empire: A Brief History of the United States.” “It could potentially be much more dangerous in the 21st century.”
