Authors: Mei Mei Chu, Florence Lo, Xiaoyu Yin
YENQING, China (Reuters) – At a research facility northwest of Beijing, molecular biologist Li Jieping and his team harvest seven small clumps of potatoes, each as small as a quail egg, from flower pots.
Potatoes grown under conditions simulating forecasts of warmer temperatures later this century provide an ominous signal for future food security.
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Weighing just 136 grams (4.8 ounces), the tubers are less than half the weight of a typical Chinese potato. The most popular varieties in China are often twice the size of a baseball.
China is the world’s largest producer of potatoes, which are critical to global food security due to their high yields compared to other major crops.
But they are particularly vulnerable to heat, and climate change caused by fossil fuel emissions is increasing temperatures to dangerous levels while worsening droughts and floods.
The urgent need to protect food supplies has led Li, a researcher at the International Potato Center (CIP) in Beijing, to lead a three-year study into the impact of higher temperatures on vegetables. His team is focusing on the two most common variants in China.
“I’m worried about what will happen in the future,” Mr. Lee said. “Farmers will harvest fewer potato tubers, which will have implications for food security.”
Li’s team grew the crops over three months in walk-in chambers set at 3 degrees higher than the current average temperature in northern Hebei and Inner Mongolia, the highlands where potatoes are commonly grown in China.
Their study, published this month in the journal Climate Smart Agriculture, found that higher temperatures accelerated tuber growth by 10 days but reduced potato yields by more than half.
According to a United Nations report released last October, under current climate policies, the world will face warming 3.1 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels by 2100.
Farmers in China say they are already feeling the effects of extreme weather events.
In Inner Mongolia, dozens of workers clutch white sacks and rush to collect potatoes dug from the ground before the next heavy rain.
“The biggest challenge for potatoes this year is heavy rain,” said Manager Wang Shiyi. “It caused a variety of diseases… and also significantly slowed down the harvest.”
Meanwhile, seed potato producer Yakeshi Senfeng Potato Industry Company has invested in an aeroponic system to grow plants in the air under controlled conditions.
Farmers are increasingly demanding potato varieties that have higher yields and are less susceptible to diseases, especially late blight. It caused the Irish Potato Famine in the mid-19th century and thrives in warm, moist environments.
“New, more aggressive (plague) strains are starting to emerge, which are more resistant to traditional prevention and control methods,” said the general manager, explaining the strategy of the Inner Mongolia-based company.
Lima-based CIP’s research is part of a joint effort with the Chinese government to help farmers adapt to a warmer, wetter environment.
In a greenhouse outside Li’s lab, workers are swabbing pollen from white potato flowers to develop heat-tolerant varieties.
Li said Chinese farmers will have to make changes in the next 10 years, such as farming in the spring instead of the start of summer or moving to higher altitudes to escape the heat.
“Farmers need to prepare for climate change. If we don’t find a solution, lower yields could reduce profits and increase potato prices,” Li said.
(Reporting by Mei Mei Chu, Florence Lo, Xiaoyu Xin; Editing by Kate Mayberry)
