Donald Trump’s incoming administration is inheriting a burning house in the Middle East, but if his new team is bold and prepared, it has a great chance of winning there.
This will require risky foreign policy moves that may be inconsistent with the domestic focus of his campaign. But this path could lead to a Nobel Peace Prize for Trump.
“Trump wants to ‘win,’” said Robert Hamilton, director of Eurasian studies at the Foreign Policy Institute. “That could range from winning a war with Iran to brokering a broad regional peace deal.”
It would also be a fundamental change from the Biden administration’s approach, which has often been indecisive, risk-averse and more focused on de-escalating tensions than solutions. There is an openness to a paradigm shift in many Arab countries that ignores their weaknesses.
Such changes could include the risk of escalation with Iran, which may require threats of force. It should also provide not only the expected support but also tough love to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose supporters are counting on a free hand on all fronts.
Trump’s foreign policy cabinet choices so far are clearly consistent with the former. Senators Marco Rubio (Secretary of State), Mike Waltz (National Security Advisor), and Pete Hegseth (Defense) are all different types of appointments. Rubio stands out as a widely known pragmatist, but they are all Iran hawks.
If Trump succeeds in any of this (and ends the war in Ukraine on terms that aren’t considered a capitulation to Vladimir Putin), it would be a legacy-building test for a new president who generally doesn’t enjoy much credibility around the world. It will.
This is the roadmap the next administration can take to make the Middle East great again.
Iran: Ultimatum?
“This regime can no longer be appeased,” Rubio recently said of Iran’s mullahs. And turning this into policy would be a big step in the right direction.
It can come down to simple: Iran must give up its proxy militias and nuclear program or face consequences. The ultimatum would be a clear break from Biden’s “re-engagement” approach, which, like his predecessors, allowed the regime to spread chaos through proxy forces such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen and Shiite militias in Iraq. no see.
Hezbollah is currently under heavy attack by Israel, but Iran is still at it. Sending Shia militias and Houthi rebels from Yemen to the failed state of Syria to support Hezbollah, threaten neighboring Israel and potentially destabilize Jordan, a U.S. ally.
An ultimatum carries the risk of war, but allowing the mullahs to remain in power as a nuclear threshold state may be an even greater risk. An attack on Iran could spark an uprising against the hated regime, which is driving inflation of more than 30% and a three-month 25% decline in the value of the rial due to its financing of unpopular foreign wars. It could collapse, and that would benefit the world.
Dr. Meir Javedanfar, an Iranian-born Israeli Middle East analyst, agrees that “the Iranians fear another uprising and feel weaker than in the past,” but warns that they would be “more amenable to a deal with Trump” than to surrender. I did it.
Qatar: Double game over
Qatar hosts the U.S. Al Udeid Air Base while also being a haven for Hamas, allowing Qatar to operate on its soil and channel funds to Gaza.
Hamas leaders currently stationed in Qatar include Khaled Mashal, Hamas’ foreign envoy, and Khalil al-Hayya, a senior adviser. There are reports that Qatar is close to agreeing to expel them, which is a good start.
Ending Qatar’s double game will be evaluated by Sunni countries, including Saudi Arabia, and cooperation on the remaining plans will be needed. The Trump team must also consider a global search for the jihadist financing network, a complex network of fraudsters across Europe and the United States that enabled Hamas to function.
For Qatar, the days of quietly funding military activities while claiming American allies may soon be over.
Lebanon: Demanding Accountability
Hezbollah receives about $700 million a year from Iran, and until recently controlled a quarter of Lebanon and used southern Iran as a launching pad against Israel. The group has been bombing North Korea for about a year, starting the day after Hamas’ Oct. 7 massacre and before Israel sent a single soldier to Gaza.
Now that Israel has crushed Hezbollah, a deal could be reached even before Trump’s inauguration for the Lebanese army to retake the south. Perhaps with the help of the Arab League or even international powers.
Either way, the clear message is: Allowing Hezbollah to operate is no longer acceptable.
Jonathan ElKhoury, a Lebanese-born and Israel-based geopolitical analyst, says Lebanon is ready for change.
“The current war has led to a significant decline in the support Hezbollah receives…including within the Shiite community,” said ElKhoury, who is closely monitoring sentiment in his homeland. “The Lebanese army has remained neutral and can exercise its sovereignty in southern Lebanon through financial support and the presence of additional troops.”
Yemen: Defend global trade
The Houthis, an armed group linked to Iran, have not only brought destruction to Yemen but also disrupted a third of global container shipping and about a sixth of all maritime trade. Last year, the El-Mandeb Strait justified ‘solidarity’ with Palestine.
Biden’s response, limited to a few airstrikes in coordination with British forces, failed to deter them.
This has caused interstate trade through the Suez Canal to plummet from more than 5 million tonnes per week to less than 2 million tonnes, according to IMF data, while maritime traffic around Africa via the Cape of Good Hope has also increased accordingly. According to Trade Winds News, this is a hugely expensive proposal that would deprive Egypt of $6 billion in revenue.
The Trump administration may tell the Houthis that further attacks will be carried out with overwhelming force. This may be a signal that economic stability and freedom of navigation are American priorities rather than bargaining chips.
Israel: Support — on guard
Yes, Team Trump, especially Ambassador nominee Mike Huckabee, loves Israel. That doesn’t mean they support all of Netanyahu’s schemes.
The prime minister has planned to postpone a commission of inquiry into the Oct. 7 catastrophe until the fighting is over, a call for perpetual war that Trump despises.
Unlike Lebanon, Israel has complex problems. Netanyahu’s coalition relies on far-right parties seeking to occupy and settle the Gaza Strip and prevent Hamas from being replaced by a rejuvenated Palestinian Authority. This is the only reasonable option.
If Israel agrees to this and agrees to new talks on a solution with the Palestinians, persuade Saudi Arabia will join the Abraham Accords. This is perhaps Trump’s greatest success during his first term.
In fact, Steve Witkoff, a real estate investor with direct ties to President Trump, is there for the Middle East. The message to Netanyahu is this: America stands with Israel in the fight against jihadist terrorists, but then we must go back to the 2020 plan for a Palestinian state that you already agreed to.
In the view of Trump and many Israelis, a demilitarized Palestinian state would actually benefit Israel while preserving its Jewish majority. Netanyahu looks up to Trump so much that Israelis will expect him not to show the disrespect heaped on Biden.
Türkiye: NATO allies are investigating
Trump could demand Turkey end its support for Hamas and end its flirtation with Russia, emphasizing that support for terrorists is incompatible with its obligations as a NATO ally. He could also push Turkey to finally acknowledge its role in the Armenian genocide, encouraging a reconciliation with history that could pave the way for more transparent relations and a healthier environment in the South Caucasus.
Sunni Arab coalition: A bolder partnership
Moderate Sunni Arab states, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt, may take a bolder stance against Hamas and its affiliates. It is not just a complaint, but a clear and irreversible break from the various mafias destabilizing the region.
Sunni countries may be asked to support the demilitarization of a Palestinian state. If Israel follows suit and Saudi Arabia joins the circle of peace, the next domino should be a Sunni-Israeli-American security alliance as a bulwark against Iran.
Palestine: Demanding Reform
The Palestinian Authority must continue to receive U.S. support (the Israeli security establishment wants it) and must also show real reform. This means ending anti-Semitic rhetoric in educational materials, not whitewashing Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad, and embracing demilitarization.
To secure a deal, the Trump administration may back down from its long-standing demand for an “end to claims” in return for its maximalist independence. For PAs, this can be a transformative opportunity to finally secure their status.
Dan Perry is the former editor-in-chief of Europe, Africa and the Middle East for the Associated Press, past president of the Jerusalem Foreign Correspondents’ Association, and author of two books about Israel. follow him danperry.substack.com
