“Get involved first,” von der Leyen said when asked about how to avoid Trump’s tariffs, referring to her phone call with President-elect Trump. “Second, we discuss common interests (…) and enter into negotiations.”
Highlighting that the EU still buys significant amounts of energy from Russia, von der Leyen asked: “Why not replace it with American LNG, which is cheaper for us and lowers energy prices? “This is where we can participate in the discussion around the trade deficit.”
Von der Leyen likely took inspiration for a potential deal from her predecessor, Jean-Claude Juncker, who struck a pretty sweet truce with Trump in 2018.
During Trump’s first term, Juncker avoided additional tariffs by assuring the U.S. president that Europe would promote imports of liquefied natural gas (and more U.S. soybeans). In reality, the European Commission has no real authority to decide on LNG purchases from European companies. But Trump was willing to engage in political theater that showed off data showing that European purchases were on the rise.
In the first half of this year, the United States has already supplied about 48% of the EU’s LNG imports, while Russia has supplied 16%.
Laurent Rousekas, managing director of gas markets at commodities giant S&P Global, said such a deal on fossil fuels would be more about politics than energy.
“The EU does not buy LNG. “There is a global LNG market and LNG buyers have their own contracts,” he said. “It is certainly possible to sign a memorandum of understanding to talk about increased purchases, but ultimately in the past this has been a way of putting a political stamp on what has been delivered in the market. And the EU is currently purchasing as much LNG as the market needs.”
According to ACER, the EU’s energy watchdog, LNG demand in the EU is “likely to peak in 2024” as carbon-heavy energy use declines and green alternatives become available.
